本文選題：制藥行業(yè) + 上市公司　； 參考：《南華大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著世界范圍內(nèi)，經(jīng)濟融合的進一步加快，企業(yè)在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中面臨著越來越大的競爭壓力，隨時都有發(fā)生破產(chǎn)，倒閉的風險。建立合理有效的財務(wù)預(yù)警模型有助于企業(yè)及時發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)營過程中出現(xiàn)的問題，加強經(jīng)營管理，提高獲利能力。隨著我國醫(yī)療體制改革的進一步推進，制藥行業(yè)在面臨著空前發(fā)展機遇的同時，也面臨著巨大的風險。國外企業(yè)擠壓市場，制藥成本上升，藥品生產(chǎn)規(guī)則的嚴格都在大環(huán)境中給制藥企業(yè)的發(fā)展帶來了壓力。同時制藥行業(yè)本身就是高風險，高投入，高回報的行業(yè)，因此，針對制藥行業(yè)建立財務(wù)預(yù)警模型，及時發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)營中的風險，提高其獲利能力，是很必要的。 本文從制藥行業(yè)本身的特點出發(fā)利用主觀邏輯與客觀實踐相結(jié)合，實證分析與規(guī)范分析相結(jié)合的方法，利用spss19.0軟件構(gòu)建了針對于制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)預(yù)警模型。本文一共分為六個部分。第一部分,主要介紹了文章的研究背景，寫作意義，對于前人的研究成果進行評述，，明確了文章的思路和創(chuàng)新之處。第二部分,對財務(wù)預(yù)警的基礎(chǔ)理論部分進行了介紹。第三部分，對我國制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)風險進行分析，明確了我國制藥行業(yè)的自身特點和其特殊的財務(wù)風險。第四部分，選取了制藥行業(yè)深圳，上海兩大證交所的228個上市公司作為研究樣本，分別從償債能力，營運能力，盈利能力，成長能力，現(xiàn)金流量和行業(yè)指標6個方面，選取了24個指標，通過非參數(shù)檢驗的方法剔除了不相關(guān)指標建立了針對制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)預(yù)警指標體系。第五部分，通過因子分析的方法對剩余指標提取主成分，并構(gòu)建了屬于制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)預(yù)警模型。第六部分，對文章進行歸納和總結(jié)，對不足之處提出展望和建議。 研究結(jié)果表明，本文所建立的制藥行業(yè)上市公司（t-1）年和（t-2）年的財務(wù)預(yù)警模型有著較高的預(yù)測水平，能很好的預(yù)測企業(yè)危機的發(fā)生，同時隨著危機年份的接近，模型的預(yù)測水平提高了。在剔除了特殊行業(yè)指標后模型預(yù)測準確度要低于有特殊行業(yè)指標的模型所預(yù)測的準確度。這說明特殊的行業(yè)指標的加入有利于制藥行業(yè)上市公司更好的進行財務(wù)危機預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:With the further acceleration of economic integration in the world, enterprises are facing more and more competitive pressure in the process of economic development, and there is the risk of bankruptcy and bankruptcy at any time.The establishment of a reasonable and effective financial early warning model is helpful for the enterprises to find out the problems in the process of operation, strengthen the management, and improve the profitability.With the further development of China's medical system reform, pharmaceutical industry is facing unprecedented development opportunities, but also facing huge risks.Foreign enterprises squeeze the market, pharmaceutical costs rise, and the strict rules of drug production bring pressure to the development of pharmaceutical enterprises.At the same time, the pharmaceutical industry itself is a high-risk, high-investment, high-return industry, so it is necessary to establish a financial early-warning model for the pharmaceutical industry, to timely discover the risks in operation and improve its profitability.Based on the characteristics of pharmaceutical industry, this paper uses the combination of subjective logic and objective practice, the combination of empirical analysis and normative analysis, and the use of spss19.0 software to build a financial early warning model for listed companies in pharmaceutical industry.This paper is divided into six parts.The first part mainly introduces the research background and writing significance of the article, reviews the previous research results, and clarifies the ideas and innovations of the article.The second part introduces the basic theory of financial early warning.In the third part, the author analyzes the financial risk of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry of our country, and clarifies the characteristics and special financial risks of the pharmaceutical industry in our country.In the fourth part, 228 listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai are selected as the research samples, from six aspects of solvency, operating ability, profitability, growth ability, cash flow and industry indicators, respectively.In this paper, 24 indexes are selected, and the financial early warning index system for listed companies in pharmaceutical industry is established by eliminating irrelevant indexes by non-parametric test.In the fifth part, the principal components of the remaining indexes are extracted by factor analysis, and the financial early-warning model of listed companies in pharmaceutical industry is constructed.The sixth part sums up and summarizes the article, and puts forward the prospect and suggestion to the deficiency.The results show that the financial early-warning models of listed pharmaceutical companies in this paper have a high level of prediction, and can well predict the occurrence of corporate crisis, and with the approaching of the crisis year, the financial early-warning model of the pharmaceutical industry listed companies in this paper has a high level of prediction, at the same time, with the approaching of the crisis year,The prediction level of the model has improved.The prediction accuracy of the model is lower than that of the model with special industry index.This shows that the addition of specific industry indicators is conducive to better financial crisis prediction for listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry.
【學位授予單位】：南華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.72;F406.7;F224

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