本文選題：新興發(fā)電技術(shù)　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)效益　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國能源資源與能源需求具有逆向分布的特征,這決定了我國須按照“大規(guī)模集中并網(wǎng)-遠(yuǎn)距離高電壓傳輸”的方式實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)風(fēng)電等新能源的開發(fā)和利用。風(fēng)電與太陽能發(fā)電具有出力不可控、能量密度低、不能大規(guī)模儲(chǔ)存等基本特征,這使得新能源的開發(fā)利用與傳統(tǒng)能源有著本質(zhì)區(qū)別。新能源的大規(guī)模集中并網(wǎng)將對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定、經(jīng)濟(jì)、高效運(yùn)行帶來較為嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響,這將在較大程度上改變電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃、建設(shè)、運(yùn)營的內(nèi)涵和作用機(jī)理,給傳統(tǒng)電力規(guī)劃、建設(shè)、運(yùn)營實(shí)施模式和手段帶來問題和挑戰(zhàn)。因此,為了盡可能地發(fā)揮新興發(fā)電技術(shù)的節(jié)能減排效益、實(shí)現(xiàn)更大范圍的能源資源優(yōu)化配置和提高新能源的利用比例,研究新興發(fā)電技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、識(shí)別我國新興發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、建立健全新興發(fā)電技術(shù)的發(fā)展保障體系具有重要的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先闡述了新興發(fā)電技術(shù)特點(diǎn)及其國外發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并從內(nèi)外部環(huán)境影響因素分析入手,正確認(rèn)識(shí)了影響新興發(fā)電技術(shù)(風(fēng)電技術(shù)、太陽能發(fā)電技術(shù)和生物質(zhì)能發(fā)電技術(shù))發(fā)展的諸多因素,為后文的研究奠定了一定的理論基礎(chǔ)。其次,利用全壽命周期評(píng)價(jià)方法界定了各種新興發(fā)電技術(shù)的生命周期邊界,構(gòu)建了新興發(fā)電技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)性評(píng)價(jià)模型,分析了新興發(fā)電技術(shù)在我國的實(shí)施效益、制約因素與推廣前景；再次,基于新興發(fā)電技術(shù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別,結(jié)合新興發(fā)電技術(shù)的特點(diǎn),建立了模糊-灰色聚類三角函數(shù)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,進(jìn)而評(píng)估了新興發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其影響效果。最后,從政策法規(guī)保障、市場機(jī)制保障和管理體系保障三方面出發(fā)研究了新興發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展保障體系,其中,市場保障機(jī)制包括技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)認(rèn)證體系、電價(jià)機(jī)制等,管理保障體系包括組織保障體系、投融資管理機(jī)制、發(fā)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)等。研究結(jié)果表明,大規(guī)模新能源并網(wǎng)條件下,新興發(fā)電技術(shù)的健康、有序發(fā)展需要兼顧其經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、有效識(shí)別其發(fā)展所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并建立健全新興發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展保障體系。
[Abstract]:Energy resources and energy demand in China have the characteristics of reverse distribution. This determines that China should realize the development and utilization of new energy sources such as wind power according to the mode of "large-scale centralized grid-connection and long-distance high-voltage transmission". Wind power and solar power generation have uncontrollable output and low energy density. The development and utilization of new energy is fundamentally different from that of traditional energy. The large-scale centralized and grid-connected new energy will have a serious negative impact on the stability, economy and efficient operation of the power system. This will greatly change the connotation and mechanism of power system planning, construction and operation, and bring problems and challenges to the traditional power planning, construction and operation modes and means. In order to give full play to the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of emerging power generation technology, to realize the optimal allocation of energy resources and increase the proportion of new energy utilization, and to study the economic benefits of emerging power generation technology, It is of great theoretical and practical significance to identify the risks faced by the development of new generation technology in China and to establish and improve the development guarantee system of emerging power generation technology. In this paper, the characteristics of emerging power generation technology and its development status abroad are described, and from the analysis of internal and external environmental factors, the influence of emerging power generation technology (wind power technology, wind power technology) is correctly recognized. Many factors of the development of solar power generation technology and biomass power generation technology have laid a certain theoretical foundation for the later research. Secondly, the life-cycle boundary of various emerging power generation technologies is defined by using the life-cycle evaluation method. The economic evaluation model of emerging power generation technology is constructed, and the implementation benefits, constraints and promotion prospects of emerging generation technology in China are analyzed. Thirdly, based on the risk identification of emerging generation technology, combined with the characteristics of emerging generation technology, A fuzzy grey clustering trigonometric function comprehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate the risks and effects of the development of new generation technology. Three aspects of market mechanism guarantee and management system guarantee are studied. Among them, market security mechanism includes technical standard certification system, electricity price mechanism, and management security system includes organization security system. The research results show that the healthy and orderly development of emerging power generation technology needs to take account of its economic benefits and effectively identify the risks faced by its development under the condition of large-scale new energy grid connection. And establish and improve the new generation technology development support system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM61;F426.61

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