發(fā)布時間：2018-03-10 09:37

  本文選題：對外貿易　切入點：隱含能源　出處：《浙江工商大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著我國不斷成長為經濟大國與貨物貿易大國,能源供求矛盾日趨突出,能源問題正將嚴重威脅我國經濟安全。已有研究大多從能源結構、能源利用效率與能源產品直接貿易等角度對此予以考察,關于對外貿易隱含能源(Embodied Energy)的研究尚不多見。鑒于此,本文基于隱含能源的概念,通過投入產出分析方法分行業(yè)測算我國進出口商品中的隱含能源,并借鑒Grossman和Krueger(1991,1993)開創(chuàng)的對外貿易環(huán)境效應研究框架,從進口和出口兩個角度構建計量模型對貿易隱含能源的規(guī)模因素、結構因素、技術因素和市場因素進行了靜態(tài)與動態(tài)分析。 具體而言,本文共分七個部分展開研究。第一章闡述了本文研究背景、研究意義及研究思路。第二章回顧了國內外關于對外貿易隱含能源的相關文獻,并做簡要的文獻述評。第三章探討了對外貿易隱含能源的理論淵源及其決定因素的作用機理。第四章分析了我國對外貿易與能源利用現狀,以及我國出口隱含能源強度變動趨勢。第五章運用投入產出分析方法分行業(yè)測算我國對外貿易商品的能耗系數,然后在此基礎上計算出我國進出口商品中的隱含能源。第六章首先以進出口隱含能源數量為被解釋變量,以進出口貿易總額、進出口貿易結構、進出口隱含能源強度和貿易競爭力為解釋變量,分別表征規(guī)模因素、結構因素、技術因素和市場因素,構建兩個靜態(tài)計量模型,以檢驗不同因素對貿易隱含能源的決定作用。同時,考慮到貿易隱含能源可能存在路徑依賴,從而本文在靜態(tài)模型的基礎上將進出口隱含能源的一期滯后項加入到解釋變量中,進一步構建了兩個動態(tài)計量模型,并予以動態(tài)分析。第七章歸納了研究結論,并闡釋了相關啟示及政策建議。 研究結果表明：首先,我國各行業(yè)商品完全能耗系數均呈現下降趨勢；其次,我國進出口隱含能源在總量上均呈現上升態(tài)勢,并且,進口和出口隱含能源的數量大體相當；最后,關于對外貿易隱含能源的決定因素,靜態(tài)實證分析結果顯示,決定出口和進口隱含能源的因素更多地體現在規(guī)模、結構和技術上,而市場因素的決定作用不明顯,但是動態(tài)實證分析結果顯示,出口隱含能源存在一個微弱的路徑依賴效應,而進口則不存在這種效應；此外,對外貿易規(guī)模和進出口隱含能源強度對進出口隱含能源的影響都比較顯著,并且影響方向與預期基本一致；而貿易結構和貿易競爭力這兩個因素則不存在顯著影響。結合理論分析和實證分析,筆者提出了幾點政策建議：持續(xù)推進我國對外貿易轉型升級；適度鼓勵進口,合理促進貿易平衡；努力優(yōu)化能源消費結構和對外貿易結構;積極促進技術創(chuàng)新,提高能源利用效率；逐步完善與貿易相關的節(jié)能降耗等法律法規(guī)以保障我國的能源安全。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as China has grown into an economic power and a large country in goods trade, the contradiction between energy supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, and the energy problem is seriously threatening the economic security of our country. Energy use efficiency and direct trade in energy products are investigated, but there are few studies on the implicit energy sources in foreign trade. In view of this, this paper is based on the concept of implied energy. Through the input-output analysis method, the implied energy sources in China's import and export commodities are calculated by industry, and the framework of research on the environmental effects of foreign trade initiated by Grossman and Krueger's 1991 / 1993) is used for reference. The static and dynamic analysis of the scale factor, structure factor, technology factor and market factor of the trade implied energy is carried out by constructing the econometric model from the point of view of import and export. Specifically, this paper is divided into seven parts. The first chapter describes the research background, research significance and research ideas. The third chapter discusses the theoretical origin of foreign trade implied energy and the mechanism of its determinants. Chapter 4th analyzes the current situation of foreign trade and energy utilization in China. And the trend of implied energy intensity change in China's exports. Chapter 5th uses input-output analysis method to calculate the energy consumption coefficient of China's foreign trade commodities by industry. Based on this, the implied energy in China's import and export commodities is calculated. Chapter 6th takes the quantity of implied energy as the explanatory variable, the total amount of import and export trade, the structure of import and export trade. The implied energy intensity and trade competitiveness of import and export are explanatory variables, representing scale factor, structure factor, technology factor and market factor, respectively. Two static measurement models are constructed. In order to test the determinant effect of different factors on trade implied energy, considering that trade implied energy may have path dependence, this paper adds one phase lag term of import and export implied energy to the explanatory variable based on static model. Further, two dynamic econometric models are constructed and analyzed dynamically. Chapter 7th summarizes the research conclusions, and explains the relevant enlightenment and policy recommendations. The results show that: first, the total energy consumption coefficient of all industries in China is declining; secondly, the total amount of implied energy in China's import and export are all rising, and the quantity of import and export implied energy is about the same; Finally, on the determinants of foreign trade implied energy, the results of static empirical analysis show that the determinants of export and import implied energy are more in scale, structure and technology, but the market factors are not obvious. But the results of dynamic empirical analysis show that there is a weak path dependence effect in export implied energy, but no such effect in import. Both the scale of foreign trade and the implied energy intensity of import and export have significant effects on the implied energy of import and export, and the direction of influence is basically consistent with the expectation. However, the trade structure and trade competitiveness have no significant influence. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the author puts forward several policy suggestions: to continuously promote the transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade; to encourage imports appropriately. We should promote the balance of trade reasonably; optimize the structure of energy consumption and foreign trade; actively promote technological innovation and improve the efficiency of energy use; and gradually improve the laws and regulations related to energy conservation and consumption in order to ensure the energy security of our country.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752;F426.2

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 陳紅敏;;中國出口貿易中隱含能變化的影響因素——基于結構分解分析的研究[J];財貿研究;2009年03期

2 周志田;楊多貴;;虛擬能——解析中國能源消費超常規(guī)增長的新視角[J];地球科學進展;2006年03期

3 李剛;基于可持續(xù)發(fā)展的國家物質流分析[J];中國工業(yè)經濟;2004年11期

4 王娜;張瑾;王震;陳向東;;基于能源消耗的我國國際貿易實證研究[J];國際貿易問題;2007年08期

5 黃敏;劉劍鋒;;外貿隱含碳排放變化的驅動因素研究——基于I-O SDA模型的分析[J];國際貿易問題;2011年04期

6 王潔華;;中國出口貿易的隱含國內能源分析[J];國際經貿探索;2011年08期

7 沈利生;;我國對外貿易結構變化不利于節(jié)能降耗[J];管理世界;2007年10期

8 李坤望;孫瑋;;我國進出口貿易中的能源含量分析[J];世界經濟研究;2008年02期

9 尹顯萍;霍達;唐黎;;中日商品貿易中內涵能源的分析及其政策含義[J];世界經濟研究;2010年07期

10 王菲;李娟;;中國對日本出口貿易中的隱含碳排放及結構分解分析[J];經濟經緯;2012年04期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 王磊;中國對外貿易內涵能源的規(guī)模測度及驅動因素研究[D];遼寧大學;2013年

，

本文編號：1592769