本文選題：能源價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：能源是人類(lèi)社會(huì)發(fā)展所必需的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),中國(guó)正處于工業(yè)化和城市化的加速時(shí)期,是當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度最快的國(guó)家之一。2011年,我國(guó)《國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展第十二個(gè)五年規(guī)劃綱要》和《“十二五”節(jié)能減排綜合性工作方案》明確提出了“合理控制能源消費(fèi)總量”的要求。國(guó)家能源局目前研究提出的能源消費(fèi)總量控制目標(biāo)是,2015年全國(guó)能源消費(fèi)總量控制目標(biāo)為41億tce,并且已形成總量控制目標(biāo)分解與考核方案。合理配置能源,保證有足夠的能源來(lái)支撐我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展需要合理有效的能源價(jià)格機(jī)制,因此,需要對(duì)能源價(jià)格機(jī)制、能源政策及能源與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的有機(jī)聯(lián)系做出深入的研究。本文對(duì)中國(guó)能源體系的研究主要集中在煤炭、石油、天然氣和電力四大主要能源行業(yè)。四種能源之間具有互補(bǔ)及替代關(guān)系,我國(guó)煤炭和石油已經(jīng)基本實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)化定價(jià),而我國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格和電價(jià)機(jī)制仍然處于政府管制定價(jià)階段,因此,本文主要基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型對(duì)未來(lái)電力和天然氣可能定價(jià)機(jī)制進(jìn)行了模擬對(duì)比分析。對(duì)煤炭和石油,本文首先作了簡(jiǎn)要的價(jià)格影響因素分析,對(duì)現(xiàn)存的市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)存在問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了深入剖析,然后分別做出我國(guó)未來(lái)煤炭、石油的動(dòng)態(tài)價(jià)格機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)。對(duì)天然氣定價(jià),本文首先分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外天然氣定價(jià)的情況,然后基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型提出了4種符合我國(guó)國(guó)情的定價(jià)模型,分別是成本加成定價(jià)模型、兩部制定價(jià)模型、等熱值定價(jià)模型和倒推法定價(jià)模型,對(duì)四種模型基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)進(jìn)行了模擬,分析其適用性,最終設(shè)計(jì)出天然氣上游、中游及下游定價(jià)機(jī)制及發(fā)展路徑,對(duì)我國(guó)天然氣定價(jià)機(jī)制改革有一定借鑒意義。基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,本文設(shè)計(jì)了4個(gè)子系統(tǒng),包括電力需求預(yù)測(cè)及電力供需平衡子系統(tǒng)、電價(jià)模式子系統(tǒng)、社會(huì)效益子系統(tǒng)和節(jié)能減排子系統(tǒng)。本文提出了6種可能電價(jià)機(jī)制,以A市情況為基礎(chǔ),考慮能源之間的互補(bǔ)與替代關(guān)系對(duì)6種情景下的電價(jià)水平、GDP增長(zhǎng)率、社會(huì)總剩余以及節(jié)能減排情況進(jìn)行模擬,分析未來(lái)電價(jià)趨勢(shì)及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)的關(guān)系,根據(jù)系統(tǒng)模擬結(jié)果,提出未來(lái)我國(guó)電價(jià)定價(jià)機(jī)制發(fā)展路徑及能源價(jià)格之間的動(dòng)態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制,對(duì)我國(guó)未來(lái)能源電價(jià)政策的制定有指導(dǎo)意義。總之,本文對(duì)未來(lái)我國(guó)能源價(jià)格動(dòng)態(tài)體系進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化研究,為未來(lái)我國(guó)能源價(jià)格發(fā)展方向提出了優(yōu)化的目標(biāo)和改革的策略,具有一定的實(shí)際價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Energy is the necessary material foundation for the development of human society. China is in the accelerating period of industrialization and urbanization, and it is one of the fastest growing countries in the world. In 2011, The outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Comprehensive Plan for Energy Saving and Emission reduction in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan clearly set out the requirements of "reasonable control of the total amount of energy consumption". The goal of total energy consumption control is that in 2015, the total energy consumption control target of the whole country is 4.1 billion tces. and the plan of decomposition and assessment of total energy consumption control target has been formed. To ensure that there are enough energy sources to support the rapid economic development of our country, we need a reasonable and effective energy price mechanism. The energy policy and the organic link between energy and economic growth are deeply studied in this paper. The research on China's energy system is mainly focused on coal, oil, The four major energy industries, natural gas and electricity, have complementary and substitute relations. China's coal and oil have basically realized market-oriented pricing, while the price mechanism of natural gas and electricity in China is still in the stage of government regulation and pricing. Therefore, based on the system dynamics model, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the possible pricing mechanism of power and natural gas in the future. For coal and oil, this paper first makes a brief analysis of the factors affecting the price. This paper deeply analyzes the existing problems of market-oriented pricing, and then designs the dynamic pricing mechanism of coal and oil in the future of our country. For the pricing of natural gas, this paper first analyzes the situation of natural gas pricing at home and abroad. Then, based on the system dynamics model, four pricing models are proposed, which are cost plus pricing model, two-part pricing model, equal-caloric pricing model and backstepping pricing model. The four models are simulated based on system dynamics, and their applicability is analyzed. Finally, the pricing mechanism and development path of the upstream, middle and lower reaches of natural gas are designed. Based on the system dynamics model, this paper designs four subsystems, including power demand forecasting and power supply and demand balance subsystem, electricity price model subsystem. Social benefit subsystem and energy saving and emission reduction subsystem. Six possible electricity pricing mechanisms are proposed in this paper. Based on the situation of A city, considering the complementary and substitution relationship between energy sources, the electricity price level and GDP growth rate in six scenarios are considered. The total surplus of society and the situation of energy saving and emission reduction are simulated, and the trend of electricity price in the future and its relationship with economy and society are analyzed. This paper puts forward the development path of the pricing mechanism of electricity price and the dynamic coordination mechanism among the energy prices in our country, which is of guiding significance to the formulation of the future energy price policy of our country. In short, this paper studies the optimization of the dynamic system of energy price in the future of our country. This paper puts forward the optimized goal and reform strategy for the future development direction of energy price in China, which has certain practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.2;F764.1;N941.3

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