發(fā)布時間：2018-02-13 19:59

  本文關鍵詞： 風力發(fā)電 成本分析 價值鏈 成本預測 模糊綜合評價　出處：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：目前在我國可再生能源中，除了水電以外，利用風力進行發(fā)電的技術是最成熟、最具規(guī)模的。然而風力發(fā)電成本高居不下是導致我國風力發(fā)電產業(yè)發(fā)展比較緩慢、缺乏競爭力的一個很大原因。因此，進行系統(tǒng)準確的成本分析，加強風電企業(yè)成本控制，提高風電企業(yè)競爭力，對于促進我國電力事業(yè)、改善我國能源結構以及控制環(huán)境污染具有十分重要的現實意義。鑒于以上情況，本文綜合考慮風電企業(yè)發(fā)電特點，將價值鏈理論引入到風電企業(yè)發(fā)電成本分析中來。本文首先對價值鏈和成本分析理論作了詳細介紹，主要包括成本分析的含義和基本方法、價值鏈的含義和分類、價值鏈成本控制的含義以及基于價值鏈的雙重成本控制觀，然后詳細分析了傳統(tǒng)成本分析方法下的風電成本構成和影響因素，并將價值鏈成本分析方法與之對比，，提出價值鏈風電成本分析方法的優(yōu)越性和一般程序。并對風電企業(yè)的外部價值鏈和內部價值鏈作了詳細分析，識別出風力發(fā)電成本動因，在此基礎上，構建風電企業(yè)成本水平分析指標體系，運用層次分析法和模糊綜合評價方法相結合的定量分析法，對風力發(fā)電企業(yè)的整個價值鏈上價值活動進行成本水平分析，為我國風力發(fā)電企業(yè)進行成本控制提供參考，最后分別針對風電企業(yè)外部價值鏈和內部價值鏈提出了成本控制策略。 目前大部分關于降低風電成本的研究都是從產業(yè)政策以及促進風電設備國產化角度來分析的，本文擴大了風電成本分析范圍，定性和定量相結合，從風電企業(yè)整條價值鏈的角度，對風電企業(yè)發(fā)電成本進行分析，更能夠加大成本控制程度，最大限度降低成本。目前，在國內外還沒有形成比較成熟的風電企業(yè)成本控制體系的情況下，對于如何進行風電企業(yè)成本控制，具有一定的參考意義。
[Abstract]:At present, besides hydropower, the technology of wind power generation in China is the most mature and the most large-scale. However, the high cost of wind power generation results in the slow development of wind power generation industry in China. Therefore, to carry out systematic and accurate cost analysis, strengthen the cost control of wind power enterprises, and improve the competitiveness of wind power enterprises will promote the power industry in our country. It is of great practical significance to improve the energy structure and control environmental pollution in China. In view of the above situation, this paper synthetically considers the characteristics of wind power generation. This paper introduces the theory of value chain into the cost analysis of power generation in wind power enterprises. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of value chain and cost analysis in detail, including the meaning and basic method of cost analysis, the meaning and classification of value chain. The meaning of value chain cost control and the view of double cost control based on value chain are analyzed in detail, and the cost components and influencing factors of wind power under the traditional cost analysis method are analyzed in detail, and the value chain cost analysis method is compared with it. The superiority and general procedure of the cost analysis method of wind power in value chain are put forward. The external value chain and internal value chain of wind power enterprises are analyzed in detail, and the cost drivers of wind power generation are identified. The cost level analysis index system of wind power enterprise is constructed, and the cost level analysis of the value activity in the whole value chain of wind power enterprise is carried out by using the quantitative analysis method combined with the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This paper provides a reference for wind power enterprises to carry out cost control in China, and finally puts forward cost control strategies for wind power enterprises' external value chain and internal value chain respectively. At present, most of the researches on reducing the cost of wind power are analyzed from the angle of industrial policy and promoting the localization of wind power equipment. This paper expands the scope of cost analysis of wind power, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. From the point of view of the whole value chain of wind power enterprises, the analysis of the cost of power generation in wind power enterprises can increase the degree of cost control and minimize costs. At present, The cost control system of wind power enterprise has not been formed at home and abroad, which has some reference significance for how to control the cost of wind power enterprise.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F406.72

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