本文關(guān)鍵詞： 中國紡織品 全球價值鏈 位置變化　出處：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著上世紀(jì)50年代科學(xué)技術(shù)和信息技術(shù)的發(fā)展,貿(mào)易及通訊成本迅速下降,加速了人力、資本、技術(shù)等要素在世界范圍內(nèi)的流通,從而催生了一個新的業(yè)態(tài)——“全球價值鏈”。不同國家憑借自身不同的比較優(yōu)勢鏈入全球價值鏈,國際生產(chǎn)和貿(mào)易格局因此出現(xiàn)新變化。 我國紡織品正是憑借自身勞動成本低廉的比較優(yōu)勢鏈入紡織品的全球價值鏈,并取得飛速發(fā)展。1992-2012年間,中國紡織品出口貿(mào)易總額從85.83億美元增長至954.50億美元,出口總額的增長高達(dá)10.12倍,成為拉動國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。同時,紡織行業(yè)作為勞動力密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)吸收了大量勞動力,現(xiàn)有直接就業(yè)者已經(jīng)超過2000萬,間接涉及一億多農(nóng)民的生計(jì)。紡織品作為關(guān)系我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和民眾就業(yè)的重要產(chǎn)品,希望通過提升我國紡織品在全球價值鏈中的位置來獲取更高的利潤和更廣闊的發(fā)展前景。然而,在2012年隨教育部課題組赴廣東和江蘇的調(diào)研中發(fā)現(xiàn),受勞動力成本大幅上升和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣等因素的影響,我國紡織行業(yè)在提升其全球價值鏈位置的道路上舉步維艱。我國紡織行業(yè)在全球價值鏈中的位置變化情況究竟如何、未來五年又會有怎樣的變化、面臨哪些挑戰(zhàn)、該如何應(yīng)對都成為學(xué)術(shù)界和業(yè)界關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。 為了回答上文提出的問題,本文首先從理論綜述入手,對全球價值鏈、微笑曲線等相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了梳理,在整理相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)出全球價值鏈位置研究的具體衡量指標(biāo),綜合各項(xiàng)考慮,最終選取出口相似度(ESI)作為衡量中國紡織品在全球價值鏈中位置變化的指標(biāo)；爾后,論述了世界紡織行業(yè)發(fā)展的四個重要階段和三次轉(zhuǎn)移,著重介紹了中國紡織行業(yè)發(fā)展的三個重要時期；在對世界和中國紡織行業(yè)發(fā)展輪廓進(jìn)行勾畫后,根據(jù)聯(lián)合國貿(mào)易發(fā)展會議數(shù)據(jù)庫中SITC Rev.3分類數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算出1988-2012年間中國紡織品的ESI,并通過建立ARMA模型對2013①-2017年間中國紡織品的ESI進(jìn)行預(yù)測,從而分析和預(yù)測中國紡織品在全球價值鏈中的位置變化。結(jié)論：中國紡織品在全球價值鏈中的位置雖有所上升,但還未能成功鏈入全球價值鏈高端環(huán)節(jié)。隨后結(jié)合調(diào)研結(jié)果,分析中國紡織品在全球價值鏈的位置變化中所面臨的挑戰(zhàn),并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出對策性建議。
[Abstract]:In -50s, with the development of science and technology and information technology, the cost of trade and communication dropped rapidly, accelerating the circulation of human, capital, technology and other elements in the world. As a result, a new format of global value chain, "global value chain", has been created, which leads to new changes in the pattern of international production and trade as a result of which different countries join the global value chain by virtue of their different comparative advantages. China's textiles are linked to the global value chain of textiles by virtue of their low labor cost comparative advantage, and have made rapid development from 1992 to 2012. China's total textile export trade increased from US $eight billion five hundred and eighty-three million to US $95.45 billion, and the total export volume increased by as much as 10.12-fold, becoming the pillar industry for the development of the national economy. Textile industry as a labor-intensive industry has absorbed a large number of labor, the existing direct employment has more than 20 million. Indirectly involved in the livelihood of more than 100 million farmers. Textiles as an important product related to the economic development and employment of the people in China. We hope to gain higher profit and wider development prospect by upgrading our textile's position in the global value chain. However, in 2012, we found it in Guangdong and Jiangsu with the Ministry of Education research group. Affected by the sharp rise in labour costs and the global economic downturn and other factors. China's textile industry is struggling to improve its position in the global value chain. How does the position of China's textile industry in the global value chain change and what changes will take place in the next five years? What challenges to face and how to deal with them have become the focus of attention of academia and industry. In order to answer the above questions, this paper first from the theoretical review, the global value chain, smile curve and other related theories are combed, on the basis of sorting out the relevant literature. Summarizes the specific measurement indicators of the global value chain position research, synthesizes each consideration, finally selects export similarity (ESII) as the index to measure the position change of Chinese textiles in the global value chain; After that, it discusses the four important stages and three shifts of the world textile industry, and emphatically introduces the three important periods of the development of the Chinese textile industry. After drawing the outline of the development of the world and China's textile industry, the classification data of SITC Rev.3 in the database of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are described. The ARMA of Chinese textiles from 1988 to 2012 was calculated, and the ESI of Chinese textiles in 20131-2017 was predicted by establishing ARMA model. Therefore, the position of Chinese textiles in the global value chain is analyzed and forecasted. Conclusion: the position of Chinese textiles in the global value chain has increased. However, it has not been successfully linked to the high end of the global value chain. Then, based on the research results, the challenges faced by Chinese textiles in the change of global value chain position are analyzed, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.81

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