本文關(guān)鍵詞：山東省工業(yè)碳排放預(yù)測及減排策略研究　出處：《中國石油大學(xué)(華東)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：當(dāng)今世界,經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化迅速發(fā)展,隨之引起各國對能源的消耗越來越多,導(dǎo)致碳排放問題日益嚴(yán)峻。我國是世界上第二大能源消費國,對能源的需求量更是巨大。山東省作為我國的工業(yè)大省和經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)省,在2012年,其工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值和主營業(yè)務(wù)收入雙雙突破萬億大關(guān),實現(xiàn)了突飛猛進(jìn)的發(fā)展。然而一個毋庸置疑的事實是,隨著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)總量不斷擴(kuò)大和人口數(shù)量持續(xù)膨脹,山東省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與資源環(huán)境之間的矛盾越來越嚴(yán)重。工業(yè)能源的消耗量迅猛增加,碳排放量日益嚴(yán)重,給國家和人們生活帶來巨大損失的同時也影響著生態(tài)環(huán)境的質(zhì)量。工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展對全省資源和環(huán)境提出了嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。以低碳工業(yè)為主導(dǎo),減少能源消耗,促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級意義重大。本文首先介紹碳排放相關(guān)理論和模型方法,在相關(guān)理論介紹的基礎(chǔ)上系統(tǒng)探討山東省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和能源消耗狀況,然后運(yùn)用排放系數(shù)法對山東省2000-2012年的工業(yè)碳排放量進(jìn)行估算,得出工業(yè)碳排放量呈逐年上升的趨勢,進(jìn)而指出目前山東省工業(yè)低碳發(fā)展的困境與障礙。接下來,通過STIRPAT模型找出山東省工業(yè)碳排放量的主要影響因素,包括工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、工業(yè)能源強(qiáng)度和工業(yè)能源結(jié)構(gòu),對其上升的根本原因進(jìn)行全面系統(tǒng)地剖析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用情景分析法對山東省2013-2040年工業(yè)碳排放量走勢情況進(jìn)行科學(xué)預(yù)測,文章選取基準(zhǔn)情景、低碳情景和超低碳情景三種模式進(jìn)行情景設(shè)定,根據(jù)工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、能源強(qiáng)度和能源結(jié)構(gòu)的變化情況來分析未來工業(yè)碳排放量的變化情況,得出三種模式下年工業(yè)碳排放量均不同而且峰值出現(xiàn)的時間和大小也不同,但總體變化趨勢均呈現(xiàn)倒U型曲線特征,與環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線理論的觀點相一致。最后,根據(jù)三種情景模式的預(yù)測結(jié)果分析,針對性地提出切實可行的山東省工業(yè)低碳發(fā)展的對策和建議:調(diào)整工業(yè)能源消費結(jié)構(gòu),走能源多元化道路;優(yōu)化升級產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),發(fā)展低耗能產(chǎn)業(yè);提高工業(yè)能源利用效率,降低能源損耗;強(qiáng)化政府職能,加強(qiáng)工業(yè)用能管理;建設(shè)工業(yè)生態(tài)園區(qū),重視生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, with the rapid development of economic globalization, more and more energy is consumed and carbon emissions are becoming more and more serious. China is the second largest energy consumer in the world. The demand for energy is even greater. Shandong Province, as a major industrial province and a strong economic province in China, in 2012, its industrial output and main business income both broke through the trillion mark. Rapid development has been achieved. However, there is no doubt that with the expansion of regional economic aggregate and the population continues to expand. The contradiction between industrial economic development and resource environment is becoming more and more serious in Shandong Province. The consumption of industrial energy is increasing rapidly and the carbon emission is becoming more and more serious. At the same time, it also affects the quality of ecological environment. The rapid development of industrial economy poses a severe challenge to the resources and environment of the province. It is of great significance to reduce energy consumption and promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory and model of carbon emissions. Based on the introduction of relevant theories, this paper systematically discusses the industrial economic development and energy consumption in Shandong Province, and then estimates the industrial carbon emissions of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2012 by using the emission coefficient method. Industrial carbon emissions show a rising trend year by year, and then pointed out the current industrial low carbon development of Shandong Province difficulties and obstacles. Next. The main influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shandong Province, including total industrial output value, industrial energy intensity and industrial energy structure, are found out by STIRPAT model. On the basis of the comprehensive and systematic analysis of the root causes of its rise, this paper uses scenario analysis to forecast the trend of industrial carbon emissions in Shandong Province in 2013-2040. This paper selects three models of base scenario, low carbon scenario and ultra-low carbon scenario to set up scenarios, and analyzes the future changes of industrial carbon emissions according to the changes of total industrial output value, energy intensity and energy structure. The results show that the industrial carbon emissions are different and the time and magnitude of peak value are different in the three models, but the overall change trend shows the characteristics of inverted U-shaped curve. It is consistent with the view of environmental Kuznets curve theory. Finally, the prediction results of three scenarios are analyzed. The countermeasures and suggestions for the development of industrial low-carbon industry in Shandong Province are put forward: adjusting the structure of industrial energy consumption and taking the path of energy diversification; Optimizing and upgrading industrial structure and developing low energy consumption industry; Improving the efficiency of industrial energy utilization and reducing energy loss; Strengthen the function of government and strengthen the management of industrial energy use; To build industrial ecological parks and pay attention to the protection of the ecological environment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國石油大學(xué)(華東)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F427

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