基于系統(tǒng)動力學的電子商務促進貴州工業(yè)化發(fā)展研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-06-22 15:37
本文選題:電子商務 + 工業(yè)化; 參考:《貴州師范大學》2015年碩士論文
【摘要】:隨著電子商務技術快速發(fā)展與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術的廣泛應用,以虛擬經(jīng)濟為依托的電子商務正在逐步成為推動我國新型工業(yè)化的重要力量。電子商務的發(fā)展能夠改變傳統(tǒng)的工業(yè)模式,實現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)標準化、銷售規(guī)模化和企業(yè)經(jīng)營專業(yè)化。貴州由于自身的特點和地域的原因,工業(yè)化程度不高,電子商務發(fā)展較晚,其經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平與發(fā)達地區(qū)相比還有較大差距。當務之急,立足貴州現(xiàn)代化建設,發(fā)展新型工業(yè),結合新興電子商務技術與貴州實際情況,致力于將電子商務技術運用到貴州工業(yè)化建設當中,有利于促進貴州經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展,提高貴州人民的生活水平。近年來,在新興電子商務技術的不斷涌現(xiàn)以及我國欠發(fā)達地區(qū)大力實施工業(yè)化的背景下,貴州重點發(fā)展大數(shù)據(jù)、云計算等戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè),建設“七朵云”示范項目,傾力打造“中國云谷”,是自然給予貴州的厚贈,也是貴州后發(fā)趕超的必然抉擇。因此,研究電子商務對工業(yè)發(fā)展的影響機制對推進貴州工業(yè)化進程具有重要意義。本文以電子商務在工業(yè)發(fā)展各個方面的影響為基本依據(jù),首先對電子商務促進工業(yè)發(fā)展的因素進行了分析,基于SWOT戰(zhàn)略分析方法,討論當前貴州發(fā)展電子商務需要堅持的基本要求、原則及發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略;其次,運用系統(tǒng)動力學原理對電子商務在促進工業(yè)發(fā)展過程中的各個因素進行討論,結合關鍵因素構建因果回路圖和系統(tǒng)流圖,分析電子商務對工業(yè)發(fā)展的影響機理,構建電子商務促進貴州工業(yè)發(fā)展的動力模型;并在因果關系圖和分析的基礎上,運用系統(tǒng)模擬軟件STELLA對上述因素組合進行系統(tǒng)仿真,構建企業(yè)電子商務運行的系統(tǒng)流圖。再次,基于灰色系統(tǒng)理論,收集了2006年以來貴州規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值變動數(shù)據(jù),運用MATLAB軟件對其變化趨勢進行預測,研究表明在電子商務發(fā)展推動下,實際產(chǎn)值比預測產(chǎn)值要高;然后將貴州省規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與電子商務交易額進行標準化處理,得到歷年貴州省規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與電子商務交易額的標準值,再將二者進行比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)二者之間增長趨勢高度擬合,并用灰色關聯(lián)分析法進行驗證,從而得出電子商務對貴州地區(qū)工業(yè)發(fā)展的促進作用。最后,根據(jù)上述討論,提出相關建議,加快工業(yè)信息化和電子商務體系建設步伐,全面推進電子商務在貴州工業(yè)化過程中的應用與發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of e-commerce technology and the wide application of Internet technology, E-commerce based on virtual economy is gradually becoming an important force to promote new industrialization in China. The development of e-commerce can change the traditional industrial model, realize production standardization, sales scale and enterprise management specialization. Due to its own characteristics and regional reasons, Guizhou has a low degree of industrialization, the development of electronic commerce is late, and its economic development level still has a big gap compared with the developed regions. As a matter of urgency, we should base ourselves on the modernization of Guizhou, develop new industries, combine the emerging e-commerce technology with the actual situation in Guizhou, and devote ourselves to applying e-commerce technology to the industrialization construction of Guizhou. It will help promote the development of Guizhou economy by leaps and bounds and improve the living standard of Guizhou people. In recent years, under the background of the emergence of new electronic commerce technology and the implementation of industrialization in underdeveloped areas of China, Guizhou has focused on developing strategic emerging industries such as big data, cloud computing, and building "Seven Cloud" demonstration projects. To build China's Cloud Valley is a natural gift to Guizhou and an inevitable choice for Guizhou to catch up with and surpass. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influence mechanism of e-commerce on industrial development in Guizhou. Based on the influence of E-commerce on various aspects of industrial development, this paper first analyzes the factors that E-commerce promotes industrial development, based on the SWOT strategic analysis method. The basic requirements, principles and development strategies needed to be adhered to in the development of electronic commerce in Guizhou are discussed. Secondly, the various factors of electronic commerce in the process of promoting industrial development are discussed by using the principle of system dynamics. Combining with the key factors to construct causality circuit diagram and system flow diagram, analyze the influence mechanism of electronic commerce on industrial development, construct the dynamic model of electronic commerce to promote the industrial development of Guizhou, and on the basis of causality diagram and analysis, The system simulation software Stella is used to simulate the above factors, and the system flow diagram of enterprise electronic commerce operation is constructed. Thirdly, based on the grey system theory, this paper collects the change data of the industrial output value above the scale of Guizhou since 2006, and forecasts the change trend by using MATLAB software. The research shows that under the promotion of the development of electronic commerce, The actual output value is higher than the predicted output value, and then the industrial output value above the scale of Guizhou Province and the electronic commerce transaction volume are standardized, and the standard value of the industrial output value above the scale of Guizhou Province and the electronic commerce transaction value over the years are obtained. By comparing the two methods, it is found that the growth trend of the two is highly fitted, and the grey relational analysis method is used to verify the effect of electronic commerce on the industrial development in Guizhou. Finally, according to the above discussion, some suggestions are put forward to speed up the construction of industrial informatization and electronic commerce system, and to promote the application and development of electronic commerce in the process of industrialization in Guizhou.
【學位授予單位】:貴州師范大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:N941.3;F724.6;F427
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