【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整升級(jí)是社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然結(jié)果,現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)正處于快速發(fā)展時(shí)期,對(duì)能源資源需求強(qiáng)勁,能源過(guò)度消耗所造成的能源資源壓力及環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題也將持續(xù)增加,在全球能源資源短缺、環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題日益嚴(yán)峻的背景下,這些均給能源資源可持續(xù)和生態(tài)環(huán)境安全造成巨大的壓力。城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)能耗有兩種相反的作用,如何更深入地認(rèn)識(shí)城鎮(zhèn)化及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對(duì)能耗的影響,在積極穩(wěn)妥地推進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和升級(jí)進(jìn)程中,提高能源效率,進(jìn)而降低能耗,對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排、建立資源節(jié)約型環(huán)境友好型社會(huì)具有重要意義。本文基于1995-2013年我國(guó)30省市城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與能源利用效率數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建了空間面板杜賓模型,由于經(jīng)濟(jì)空間權(quán)重矩陣比單單基于地理權(quán)重矩陣以及經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)度矩陣與現(xiàn)實(shí)情況更相符,故以下的研究結(jié)論是基于經(jīng)濟(jì)空間權(quán)重矩陣的時(shí)間固定、空間隨機(jī)效應(yīng)的空間面板杜賓模型的分析結(jié)果。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,能源效率的Moran'I統(tǒng)計(jì)量均顯著正值,表明能源效率在空間上具有正相關(guān)關(guān)系,表現(xiàn)出空間集聚。從參數(shù)估計(jì)結(jié)果來(lái)看,空間效應(yīng)的系數(shù)為正值,且具有顯著性;城鎮(zhèn)化率對(duì)能源效率的效應(yīng)為負(fù),但對(duì)相鄰省市能源效率的空間溢出效應(yīng)為正,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)中第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重變動(dòng)對(duì)能源效率產(chǎn)生相反的作用,同時(shí)二者對(duì)相鄰省市的空間溢出效應(yīng)顯著為負(fù),第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重對(duì)相鄰省市能源效率的空間溢出效應(yīng)要顯著高于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。從城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)能源效率的影響分解為直接效應(yīng)與間接效應(yīng)的結(jié)果來(lái)看,城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)能源效率產(chǎn)生顯著為正的間接效應(yīng)與負(fù)的直接效應(yīng);產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)中第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重對(duì)能源效率的影響最大,其直接、間接影響均顯著為負(fù);第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重對(duì)能源效率的效應(yīng)均顯著為正,間接效應(yīng)也大于直接影響,但影響系數(shù)均小于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重的影響。說(shuō)明在新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)過(guò)程中,需要大力發(fā)展新型城鎮(zhèn)化節(jié)能環(huán)保,提高城鎮(zhèn)化節(jié)能;加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、升級(jí)的步伐,提高經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的質(zhì)量,逐步降低第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比,發(fā)展能耗較低的第三產(chǎn)業(yè),使得我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)走出能源利用效率低的困境。
[Abstract]:Urbanization and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading are the inevitable results of social and economic development. At the present stage, China's urbanization and industrial structure upgrading are in a period of rapid development, with strong demand for energy and resources. The pressure of energy resources and environmental pollution caused by excessive consumption of energy will continue to increase. Under the background of the shortage of global energy resources and the increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, All these bring great pressure to the sustainability of energy resources and ecological environment security. Urbanization and industrial structure adjustment have two opposite effects on energy consumption. How to understand the impact of urbanization and industrial structure change on energy consumption, and how to promote urbanization and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading process actively and steadily, It is of great significance to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption to realize energy saving and emission reduction and to establish a resource-conserving environment-friendly society. Based on the urbanization, industrial structure and energy efficiency data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2013, this paper constructs a spatial panel Dobbin model. Because the economic spatial weight matrix is more consistent with the reality than the geographical weight matrix and the economic intensity matrix alone, the following conclusions are based on the fixed time of the economic spatial weight matrix. The results of the spatial panel Dobbin model with random effects. The empirical results show that the Moran'I statistics of energy efficiency are significantly positive, indicating that there is a positive correlation between energy efficiency and spatial concentration. From the result of parameter estimation, the coefficient of spatial effect is positive and significant. The effect of urbanization rate on energy efficiency is negative, but the spatial spillover effect on energy efficiency of neighboring provinces and cities is positive. The change of secondary industry proportion and tertiary industry proportion in industrial structure has the opposite effect on energy efficiency. At the same time, the spatial spillover effect of them on neighboring provinces and cities was significantly negative, and the spatial spillover effect of secondary industry proportion on energy efficiency of adjacent provinces and cities was significantly higher than that of tertiary industry. From the result that the influence of urbanization and industrial structure on energy efficiency is decomposed into direct effect and indirect effect, urbanization has obvious positive indirect effect and negative direct effect on energy efficiency. In the industrial structure, the proportion of the secondary industry has the greatest impact on energy efficiency, its direct and indirect effects are significantly negative; The effect of the proportion of the tertiary industry on energy efficiency is significantly positive and the indirect effect is larger than that of the direct effect, but the influence coefficient is smaller than that of the secondary industry. It shows that in the process of new-type urbanization, it is necessary to develop new type of urbanization to save energy and environmental protection, and to improve the energy saving of urbanization. Speeding up the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, improving the quality of economic development, gradually reducing the proportion of secondary industry and developing the tertiary industry with lower energy consumption, the economic growth of our country can get out of the predicament of low energy efficiency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F299.21;F121.3;F426.2;F224

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