【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)、支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè),為我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會(huì)建設(shè)作出重大貢獻(xiàn),深深影響著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)進(jìn)步、人民安居樂業(yè)。隨著城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展,大量的農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)力及非農(nóng)人口涌入城鎮(zhèn),他們工作、生活及消費(fèi)的行為增加了對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)市場的需求,同時(shí)對房地產(chǎn)市場的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展有了更高的要求,促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展速度及發(fā)展質(zhì)量。而傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)的快速發(fā)展,導(dǎo)致對房地產(chǎn)市場的需求迅速上漲,市場需求的急增導(dǎo)致大量的問題出現(xiàn),這些亟待解決的問題給政府和居民生活帶來沉重的負(fù)擔(dān),對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)及城鎮(zhèn)化的健康持續(xù)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了阻礙作用。在新型城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中,對房地產(chǎn)市場的需求不僅僅在于數(shù)量,更注重質(zhì)量,在新型城鎮(zhèn)化的背景下,如何實(shí)現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)市場健康、穩(wěn)定、長期的可持續(xù)發(fā)展是值得研究的問題。本文在研讀國內(nèi)外學(xué)者現(xiàn)有的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,對傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)化、新型城鎮(zhèn)化以及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了梳理,對我國目前城鎮(zhèn)化和房地產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀及存在的問題進(jìn)行了深入分析,闡述了在新型城鎮(zhèn)化背景下房地產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn),從定性方面探討了城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展進(jìn)程對房地產(chǎn)市場需求的影響機(jī)制,運(yùn)用縱向比較法分析了城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程對房地產(chǎn)投資額、房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響,在理論研究上明確了新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)作用。從實(shí)證研究的角度,首先對城鎮(zhèn)化率、房地產(chǎn)投資額、房地產(chǎn)市場需求以及房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格序列進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性分析,其次將他們進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),最后在橫向與縱向上運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)方法對我國城鎮(zhèn)化水平與我國房地產(chǎn)投資額、房地產(chǎn)市場需求、房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格進(jìn)行了因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,新型城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高對房地產(chǎn)投資額、房地產(chǎn)市場需求、房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格起到積極作用。最后,針對制約我國新型城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展的不協(xié)調(diào)因素,如城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)過程中過度擴(kuò)張、城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)缺乏科學(xué)合理的規(guī)劃、對土地資源的粗放利用以及房地產(chǎn)市場無秩序發(fā)展,提出了在新型城鎮(zhèn)化背景下我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康可持續(xù)的政策建議:重視開發(fā)新城及舊城改造,做好城鎮(zhèn)人口對住房需求的合理預(yù)測,編制科學(xué)合理的城鎮(zhèn)總體發(fā)展規(guī)劃,根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)匚幕l(fā)展房地產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:As the basic industry and pillar industry of our economy, the real estate industry has made great contributions to the economic development and social construction of our country, which has deeply affected the economic and social progress of our country and the people living and working in peace and contentment. With the development of urbanization, a large number of rural surplus labor and non-agricultural population poured into cities and towns. Their behavior of working, living and consuming increased the demand for the real estate market. At the same time, there are higher requirements for the healthy and stable development of the real estate market, to promote the development speed and quality of real estate. The rapid development of traditional towns leads to a rapid rise in demand for the real estate market, and a rapid increase in market demand leads to a large number of problems, which urgently need to be solved bring a heavy burden to the government and residents. It hinders the healthy and sustainable development of real estate industry and urbanization. In the process of new urbanization, the demand for real estate market lies not only in quantity but also in quality. Under the background of new urbanization, how to realize the healthy, stable and long-term sustainable development of real estate market is worth studying. On the basis of studying the existing literature and research results of scholars at home and abroad, this paper combs the theories of traditional urbanization, new urbanization and real estate industry. This paper deeply analyzes the present situation and problems of urbanization and real estate in China, and expounds the opportunities and challenges faced by the real estate industry under the background of new urbanization. This paper discusses the influence mechanism of urbanization on the demand of real estate market qualitatively, and analyzes the influence of urbanization process on real estate investment and real estate price by means of longitudinal comparative method. In the theoretical study, the new type of urbanization on the promotion of real estate development role. From the perspective of empirical research, first of all, the urbanization rate, real estate investment, real estate market demand and real estate price sequence are analyzed stably, and then cointegration tests are carried out. Finally, the paper uses Granger causality test to test the causality between urbanization level and real estate investment, real estate market demand and real estate market price. The improvement of new urbanization level plays a positive role in real estate investment, real estate market demand and real estate market price. Finally, aiming at the uncoordinated factors that restrict the development of new urbanization and real estate market in China, such as excessive expansion in the process of urban construction, the lack of scientific and reasonable planning for urban construction. Based on the extensive utilization of land resources and the disorderly development of the real estate market, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry in China under the background of new urbanization: pay attention to the development of new cities and the transformation of old cities. It is necessary to make a reasonable forecast of the housing demand of the urban population, to draw up a scientific and reasonable overall urban development plan, and to develop the real estate industry according to the local culture.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：黑龍江省社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.23;F299.21

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