碳排放約束下的江蘇省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-06 09:02
【摘要】：隨著全球氣候的持續(xù)變暖,以二氧化碳為主的溫室氣體的大量排放成為影響全球變暖的重要因素之一,減少碳排放、發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)成為了世界各國的共識。我國政府在2009年哥本哈根會議上承諾,到2020年實現(xiàn)碳排放強(qiáng)度比2005年下降40%-45%,江蘇省既是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最快的省份之一,又是全國碳排放的大省,碳減排責(zé)任重大。如何在保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的前提下降低碳排放是江蘇省亟需解決的問題。本文運(yùn)用產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、碳排放與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等理論,分析了江蘇省碳排放與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整之間的關(guān)系,通過江蘇省歷年能源平衡表,結(jié)合IPCC評估報告提供的碳排放核算方法首先對江蘇省1995-2014年碳排放總量和分產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放量進(jìn)行測算,然后分別從碳排放總體、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源結(jié)構(gòu),與全國的橫向?qū)Ρ人膫�方面分析了江蘇省碳排放的現(xiàn)狀。利用碳排放量和三次產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)指標(biāo),運(yùn)用時間序列數(shù)據(jù),通過格蘭杰因果檢驗、協(xié)整方程、VAR方程計量分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對碳排放的影響。在此基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合江蘇省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和環(huán)境質(zhì)量的實際運(yùn)行情況構(gòu)建多目標(biāo)投入產(chǎn)出優(yōu)化模型,采集最新的江蘇省30部門投入產(chǎn)出表和江蘇省統(tǒng)計年鑒的數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)行規(guī)劃求解,重點對2020年江蘇省各產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整潛力和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整趨勢進(jìn)行預(yù)測性的模擬研究。本文研究得出:第一,在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)上,江蘇省形成了“二三一”的產(chǎn)業(yè)格局。在碳排放量上,江蘇省的第二產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放占絕對比重,能源消費(fèi)仍以煤炭為主。全省碳排放強(qiáng)度呈逐年降低的趨勢并低于全國平均水平,同時,人均碳排放量高于全國平均水平。第二,三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的低碳化調(diào)整有利于減少碳排放,同時需要提高三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的能源利用效率。第三,江蘇省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演變是地區(qū)碳排放量增長的Granger原因,反之,碳排放量的變動僅為第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值變動的Granger原因。短期內(nèi),第一產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展會使得碳排放量減少;第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展會使得碳排放量提升。長期來說,江蘇省第一產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重變動對碳排放量影響效應(yīng)為負(fù);第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重變動對碳排放量影響效應(yīng)為正,且第二產(chǎn)業(yè)正效應(yīng)高于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。第四,江蘇省的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整必須對各類產(chǎn)業(yè)做出準(zhǔn)確定位,以主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)為先導(dǎo)。通過多目標(biāo)投入產(chǎn)出優(yōu)化模型發(fā)現(xiàn)江蘇省需要重點關(guān)注的14個產(chǎn)業(yè),對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有明顯的帶動作用。同時,江蘇省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化將呈現(xiàn)出“軟化”趨勢。
[Abstract]:With the continuous warming of the global climate, a large number of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have become one of the important factors affecting global warming, reducing carbon emissions, and developing low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the world. At the Copenhagen Conference in 2009, our government promised that the intensity of carbon emissions will be 40 to 45 percent lower by 2020 than in 2005. Jiangsu Province is not only one of the fastest-growing provinces in our country, but also a big province of carbon emissions in the whole country. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic growth is an urgent problem in Jiangsu Province. Based on the theories of industrial structure adjustment, carbon emission and industrial structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emission and industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province. Combined with the carbon emission accounting method provided by the IPCC assessment report, the total amount of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2014 in Jiangsu Province and the carbon emissions from the sub-industrial sectors were measured, and then the overall carbon emissions, industrial structure and energy structure were measured, respectively. The present situation of carbon emission in Jiangsu Province is analyzed in four aspects compared with the whole country. With the help of carbon emissions and related indexes of tertiary industries, the effects of industrial structure on carbon emissions were analyzed by Granger causality test, cointegration equation and VAR equation. On this basis, a multi-objective input-output optimization model is constructed based on the actual operation of economic development and environmental quality in Jiangsu Province, and the latest input-output tables of 30 departments in Jiangsu Province and the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu Province are collected to solve the problem. This paper focuses on the simulation study on the potentiality of industrial structure adjustment and the trend of industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province in 2020. First, in terms of industrial structure, Jiangsu Province has formed a "two-three-one" industrial pattern. In terms of carbon emissions, Jiangsu Province's secondary industry carbon emissions account for an absolute proportion, energy consumption is still dominated by coal. The intensity of carbon emission in the whole province is decreasing year by year and is lower than the national average, at the same time, the per capita carbon emission is higher than the national average. Second, the low carbonization adjustment of the internal structure of the third industry is conducive to reducing carbon emissions, and the energy efficiency within the third industry needs to be improved at the same time. Thirdly, the evolution of the industrial structure of Jiangsu Province is the Granger cause of the increase of regional carbon emissions, whereas the change of carbon emissions is only the Granger reason of the change of the output value of the tertiary industry. In the short term, the development of the primary industry and the tertiary industry will reduce the carbon emissions, while the development of the secondary industry will increase the carbon emissions. In the long run, the effect of the change of the proportion of the output value of the primary industry on the carbon emissions is negative, while that of the secondary industry and the third industry is positive, and the positive effect of the secondary industry is higher than that of the third industry. Fourth, the structural adjustment of Jiangsu Province must make accurate positioning for all kinds of industries and take the leading industry as the guide. Through the multi-objective input-output optimization model, it is found that 14 industries need to be focused on in Jiangsu Province, which has a significant driving effect on regional economic growth. At the same time, Jiangsu Province industrial structure optimization will show a "softening" trend.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127
本文編號：2313834
[Abstract]:With the continuous warming of the global climate, a large number of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have become one of the important factors affecting global warming, reducing carbon emissions, and developing low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the world. At the Copenhagen Conference in 2009, our government promised that the intensity of carbon emissions will be 40 to 45 percent lower by 2020 than in 2005. Jiangsu Province is not only one of the fastest-growing provinces in our country, but also a big province of carbon emissions in the whole country. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic growth is an urgent problem in Jiangsu Province. Based on the theories of industrial structure adjustment, carbon emission and industrial structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emission and industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province. Combined with the carbon emission accounting method provided by the IPCC assessment report, the total amount of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2014 in Jiangsu Province and the carbon emissions from the sub-industrial sectors were measured, and then the overall carbon emissions, industrial structure and energy structure were measured, respectively. The present situation of carbon emission in Jiangsu Province is analyzed in four aspects compared with the whole country. With the help of carbon emissions and related indexes of tertiary industries, the effects of industrial structure on carbon emissions were analyzed by Granger causality test, cointegration equation and VAR equation. On this basis, a multi-objective input-output optimization model is constructed based on the actual operation of economic development and environmental quality in Jiangsu Province, and the latest input-output tables of 30 departments in Jiangsu Province and the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu Province are collected to solve the problem. This paper focuses on the simulation study on the potentiality of industrial structure adjustment and the trend of industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province in 2020. First, in terms of industrial structure, Jiangsu Province has formed a "two-three-one" industrial pattern. In terms of carbon emissions, Jiangsu Province's secondary industry carbon emissions account for an absolute proportion, energy consumption is still dominated by coal. The intensity of carbon emission in the whole province is decreasing year by year and is lower than the national average, at the same time, the per capita carbon emission is higher than the national average. Second, the low carbonization adjustment of the internal structure of the third industry is conducive to reducing carbon emissions, and the energy efficiency within the third industry needs to be improved at the same time. Thirdly, the evolution of the industrial structure of Jiangsu Province is the Granger cause of the increase of regional carbon emissions, whereas the change of carbon emissions is only the Granger reason of the change of the output value of the tertiary industry. In the short term, the development of the primary industry and the tertiary industry will reduce the carbon emissions, while the development of the secondary industry will increase the carbon emissions. In the long run, the effect of the change of the proportion of the output value of the primary industry on the carbon emissions is negative, while that of the secondary industry and the third industry is positive, and the positive effect of the secondary industry is higher than that of the third industry. Fourth, the structural adjustment of Jiangsu Province must make accurate positioning for all kinds of industries and take the leading industry as the guide. Through the multi-objective input-output optimization model, it is found that 14 industries need to be focused on in Jiangsu Province, which has a significant driving effect on regional economic growth. At the same time, Jiangsu Province industrial structure optimization will show a "softening" trend.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127
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