發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-04 17:36

  本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系 + 多元回歸��； 參考：《吉林農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),中國(guó)社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)取得了舉世矚目的榮耀,農(nóng)業(yè)作為第一產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有重要地位。工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的不斷加快,傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)水平滯后,農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展面臨難題,這就急需傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)向現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變。現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的核心就是建立完整的現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系,通過(guò)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、加工、流通等方面相互支撐、相互銜接,來(lái)發(fā)展現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)、升級(jí)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工業(yè)、創(chuàng)新農(nóng)產(chǎn)品流通業(yè),加快形成結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)、一二三產(chǎn)業(yè)融合的現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系�，F(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系是發(fā)展現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)、提高農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平、增強(qiáng)農(nóng)業(yè)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的迫切需求,因此,研究現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系意義深遠(yuǎn)。吉林省是農(nóng)業(yè)大省,也是主要的糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū),其農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)整個(gè)中國(guó)的發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。但近年來(lái),吉林省農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展面臨很多難題。糧食產(chǎn)量過(guò)剩、農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、科技水平較低等一系列問(wèn)題,嚴(yán)重制約吉林省農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展。若要大力發(fā)展吉林省農(nóng)業(yè),就應(yīng)該構(gòu)建合理的、符合吉林省省情的現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系。因此,研究吉林省現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系影響因素具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本篇論文采用定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合,首先采用農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的比重、畜牧業(yè)產(chǎn)值占農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的比重、農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的比重和家庭收入中非農(nóng)收入比重等分析吉林省現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。其次,從定性角度分析現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系的影響因素:農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)主體、農(nóng)業(yè)財(cái)政和信貸、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和推廣及政府政策。從定量角度建立多元線性回歸模型,以現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系為自變量,以農(nóng)村道路公里數(shù)、農(nóng)民專業(yè)合作社數(shù)量、農(nóng)業(yè)貸款額、農(nóng)業(yè)財(cái)政支農(nóng)比重、農(nóng)業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資和二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP比重作為因變量,分析這些因素對(duì)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系的影響程度。結(jié)果表明:農(nóng)村道路公里數(shù)、農(nóng)民專業(yè)合作社數(shù)量、農(nóng)業(yè)貸款額、農(nóng)業(yè)財(cái)政支農(nóng)比重、農(nóng)業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資和二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP比重與現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系都呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,說(shuō)明這些影響因素的提高能加速現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系的發(fā)展,農(nóng)村道路公里數(shù)、農(nóng)民專業(yè)合作社數(shù)量、農(nóng)業(yè)貸款額、農(nóng)業(yè)財(cái)政支農(nóng)比重、農(nóng)業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資和二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP比重每增加一個(gè)單位,現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系分別提高0.0445、0.122、0.0509、0.4127、0.0384、1.9538。最后,據(jù)此提出加快發(fā)展現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系的建議:加強(qiáng)政府對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投入、培育現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)體系的新主體、完善農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和推廣機(jī)制、加大財(cái)政和信貸支持農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的力度。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening to the outside world, China's socialist economic construction has gained worldwide attention. Agriculture, as the primary industry, plays an important role in the national economy. The process of industrialization and urbanization is speeding up, the level of traditional agricultural technology is lagging behind, and the development of agriculture is faced with difficult problems, which is in urgent need of transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture. The core of the development of modern agriculture is to establish a complete modern agricultural industrial system, to develop modern agriculture, upgrade the processing industry of agricultural products, and innovate the circulation of agricultural products by supporting and connecting each other in agricultural production, processing, circulation, and so on. Speed up the formation of structural optimization, industrial upgrading, the integration of two and three industries of modern agricultural industry system. The modern agricultural industrial system is the urgent need to develop modern agriculture, improve agricultural output level and enhance the international competitiveness of agriculture. Therefore, it is of far-reaching significance to study the modern agricultural industrial system. Jilin Province is a major agricultural province and a major grain producing area. The development of its agriculture is of great importance to the development of the whole China. But in recent years, Jilin province agriculture development faces many difficult problems. A series of problems, such as surplus grain production, unreasonable agricultural industrial structure and low level of science and technology, seriously restrict the development of agriculture in Jilin Province. If we want to develop agriculture in Jilin Province, we should construct a reasonable and modern agricultural industrial system in accordance with the situation of Jilin Province. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the influencing factors of modern agricultural industrial system in Jilin Province. This paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. Firstly, the proportion of agricultural products processing industry output value to total agricultural output value and animal husbandry output value to agricultural output value are adopted. The proportion of agricultural service output value in agricultural output value and the proportion of non-agricultural income in household income are analyzed. The present situation of the development of modern agricultural industry system in Jilin Province is analyzed. Secondly, it analyzes the influencing factors of modern agricultural industrial system from a qualitative perspective: agricultural infrastructure construction, agricultural industry main body, agricultural finance and credit, agricultural technology innovation and extension, and government policy. The multivariate linear regression model is established from the quantitative point of view, taking the modern agricultural industrial system as the independent variable, taking the number of kilometers of rural roads, the number of farmers' specialized cooperatives, the amount of agricultural loans, the proportion of agricultural finance supporting agriculture, etc. The fixed assets investment and the ratio of secondary and tertiary industries to GDP as dependent variables are analyzed to analyze the influence of these factors on the modern agricultural industrial system. The results show that the number of rural roads, the number of farmers' specialized cooperatives, the amount of agricultural loans, the proportion of agricultural finance supporting agriculture, the proportion of agricultural fixed assets investment and the share of secondary and tertiary industries in GDP are all positively correlated with the modern agricultural industrial system. It shows that the improvement of these influencing factors can accelerate the development of modern agricultural industrial system, the number of kilometers of rural roads, the number of farmers' specialized cooperatives, the amount of agricultural loans, the proportion of agricultural finance supporting agriculture, If the proportion of agricultural fixed assets investment and secondary and tertiary industries in GDP increases by one unit, the modern agricultural industrial system will be increased by 0.0445U 0.122U 0.0509N 0.4127N 0.0384n 1.9538 respectively. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for speeding up the development of modern agricultural industrial system: strengthening the government's investment in agricultural infrastructure, cultivating the new main body of modern agricultural industrial system, and perfecting the agricultural technology innovation and extension mechanism. We will increase financial and credit support for agricultural development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F327

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