發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-10 18:38

  本文選題：關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè) + 碳排放預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《西安科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在全球能源消費(fèi)量急劇攀升的今天,環(huán)境污染、溫室效應(yīng)及能源短缺等現(xiàn)象也日益嚴(yán)峻。二氧化碳的排放是導(dǎo)致氣候問題的主要原因,我國在節(jié)能減排方面面臨很大的壓力。中國作為當(dāng)前世界最大的發(fā)展中國家,目前正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度換擋期、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整陣痛期、前期刺激政策消化期的“三期疊加”,加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式和調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)刻不容緩。碳排放量升高主要是由工業(yè)行業(yè)導(dǎo)致的,而關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)又是工業(yè)中最具影響力的行業(yè),所以本文對(duì)關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)的碳排放進(jìn)行研究。論文首先界定了關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)的內(nèi)涵;其次,借鑒灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析理論,從碳排放量和行業(yè)產(chǎn)值視角甄別出論文的研究對(duì)象——關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè),并基于GM(1,1)模型預(yù)測(cè)出各關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)2015-2020年碳排放量;然后依據(jù)“歷史排放量”和“GDP”原則,利用“歷史排放偏好”碳排放配額方案,對(duì)每個(gè)關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)2020年碳排放量進(jìn)行配額分配,發(fā)現(xiàn)煤炭開采及洗選業(yè)、黑色金屬冶煉及加工業(yè)和電力熱力生產(chǎn)及供應(yīng)業(yè)所面臨較大的減排壓力,定義其為“高壓”關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè);再次,基于STIRPAT模型分析“高壓”關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放量大的主要原因,發(fā)現(xiàn)能源強(qiáng)度、能源結(jié)構(gòu)和行業(yè)產(chǎn)值是碳排放量的影響因素。最后根據(jù)碳排放影響因素能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度和能源結(jié)構(gòu)的貢獻(xiàn)度,設(shè)置2015-2025年“高壓”關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)的兩種經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景:低碳情景和超低碳情景。通過情景分析發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)的碳排放量會(huì)出現(xiàn)倒U型增長(zhǎng),據(jù)之建議煤炭開采及洗選業(yè)及洗選業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展路徑應(yīng)介于低碳情景和超低碳情景之間;黑色金屬冶煉及加工業(yè)適合超低碳的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展路徑;電力熱力生產(chǎn)及供應(yīng)業(yè)應(yīng)選擇低碳情景所設(shè)定的發(fā)展路徑,而減排壓力小的關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)2015-2020年應(yīng)緊跟國家政策,保持“新常態(tài)”的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式發(fā)展。研究結(jié)論對(duì)我國重污染行業(yè)未來節(jié)能減排政策的制定提供理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, global energy consumption is rising sharply, environmental pollution, Greenhouse Effect and energy shortage are also becoming more and more serious. Carbon dioxide emission is the main cause of climate problems. China faces great pressure in energy saving and emission reduction. As the largest developing country in the world at present, China is currently in the period of shifting economic growth rate, the painful period of structural adjustment, and the "three phases superposition" of the previous period of digestion of stimulus policies. It is urgent to speed up the transformation of the mode of economic development and readjust the economic structure. The increase of carbon emissions is mainly caused by the industrial industry, and the key industry is the most influential industry, so this paper studies the carbon emissions of the key industries. Firstly, this paper defines the connotation of key industries; secondly, using the grey relational analysis theory for reference, the paper identifies the key industries from the perspective of carbon emissions and industry output value. Then, according to the principle of "historical emission" and "GDP", the carbon emission quota scheme of "historical emission preference" is used to allocate the carbon emissions of each key industry in 2020. It is found that the coal mining and washing industry, the ferrous metal smelting and processing industry and the electric power thermal production and supply industry are faced with greater pressure of emission reduction, which is defined as the "high pressure" key industry. Thirdly, Based on the STIRPAT model, the main reasons for the large carbon emissions from the key industries of "high pressure" are analyzed. It is found that the energy intensity, energy structure and industry output value are the influencing factors of the carbon emissions. Finally, according to the energy consumption intensity and the contribution degree of energy structure, two kinds of economic development scenarios of "high pressure" key industries in 2015-2025 are set up: low carbon scenario and ultra low carbon scenario. Through the scenario analysis, it is found that the carbon emission of key industries will appear inverted U type growth, according to the suggestion that the economic development path of coal mining and washing industry should be between low carbon scenario and ultra low carbon scenario; The ferrous metal smelting and processing industry is suitable for ultra-low-carbon economic development; the electric power thermal production and supply industry should choose the development path set out in the low-carbon scenario, and the key industries with low emission reduction pressure should closely follow the national policy in 2015-2020. Maintain the development of the "new normal" economic model. The conclusions provide theoretical basis for the formulation of energy saving and emission reduction policy in heavy pollution industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X22;F127

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