本文選題：貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu) + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)��； 參考：《上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的深化與推進(jìn),生產(chǎn)要素的流動(dòng)更加頻繁,國(guó)際間實(shí)物形式和非實(shí)物形式的貿(mào)易實(shí)現(xiàn)了快速發(fā)展,交流渠道也得到了拓寬。關(guān)于對(duì)外貿(mào)易與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的研究一直是國(guó)際貿(mào)易學(xué)和產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的焦點(diǎn)。山東省作為東部沿海省份,依托空間地理優(yōu)勢(shì)和省內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,其貿(mào)易規(guī)模逐年擴(kuò)大,貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)化。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)上山東省逐漸由現(xiàn)有“二三一”向“三二一”逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變,并且隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)開放度的提高,對(duì)外貿(mào)易和產(chǎn)業(yè)的聯(lián)系日益密切。本文在以往研究的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)挖掘,針對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)于對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和對(duì)外貿(mào)易與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)的文獻(xiàn)和理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行闡述和整理。隨后本文總結(jié)了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)之間相互影響的途徑。在針對(duì)山東省近年來(lái)產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)和貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行描述性分析之后,本文將山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行合理分類,針對(duì)山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)和進(jìn)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行初步相關(guān)性分析。隨后構(gòu)建山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo),通過(guò)協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等方法,構(gòu)建VAR向量自回歸模型從動(dòng)態(tài)角度分析山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間相互影響作用情況,并得出山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易中出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整存在著相互促進(jìn)的情況,進(jìn)口商品結(jié)構(gòu)可以對(duì)本省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整產(chǎn)生正向沖擊,而本省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)于進(jìn)口商品結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生負(fù)向沖擊。在以上研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文從內(nèi)部需求和外部需求兩個(gè)角度分析影響山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的主要原因。在外部需求方面,本文以2008年全球金融危機(jī)為界限對(duì)山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分段討論,分析山東省分類出口貿(mào)易商品的數(shù)量和比重變化。隨后引入灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法,研究山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間以經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)為界限前后關(guān)聯(lián)度的變化情況。通過(guò)對(duì)比分析,山東省勞動(dòng)密集型出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性得到提高,資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口商品與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)度出現(xiàn)了較大幅度下降。在內(nèi)部需求方面,本文將本省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)分類進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行細(xì)化,引用鄧氏灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法分析本山東省內(nèi)部需求結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的關(guān)系。分析得出山東省消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整對(duì)于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整具有一定的拉動(dòng)作用,山東省消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)得到一定改善,但是整體層次較低,這阻礙了山東省由外需主導(dǎo)型向內(nèi)需驅(qū)動(dòng)型貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。根據(jù)以上實(shí)證結(jié)論和山東本省實(shí)際情況,本文最后將從貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和需求結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)角度為山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整提供相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the deepening and promotion of economic globalization, the flow of factors of production becomes more frequent, the international trade between physical form and non-physical form has achieved rapid development, and the channels of communication have also been broadened. The research on foreign trade and industrial structure has always been the focus of international trade and industrial economics. As an eastern coastal province, Shandong Province, relying on its spatial geographical advantages and the development of industry in the province, has expanded its trade scale year by year and gradually optimized its trade structure. In terms of industrial structure, Shandong Province has gradually changed from "two three one" to "three 21", and with the improvement of industrial openness, the relationship between foreign trade and industry is becoming closer and closer. On the basis of previous research, this paper makes further literature excavations, aiming at the foreign trade and economic growth of domestic and foreign scholars. The related literature and theoretical basis of industrial structure and economic growth and foreign trade and industrial structure are expounded and sorted out. Then this paper summarizes the ways of interaction between industrial structure and trade structure. After the descriptive analysis of the industrial and trade data of Shandong Province in recent years, this paper classifies the industrial structure and trade structure of Shandong Province reasonably. This paper makes a preliminary correlation analysis on the changing trend of industrial structure and import and export commodity structure in Shandong Province. Then we construct the industrial structure and trade structure index of Shandong Province, pass cointegration test, Granger causality test and so on. VAR vector autoregressive model is constructed to analyze the interaction between foreign trade structure and industrial structure in Shandong Province from the dynamic point of view. It is concluded that the readjustment of export commodity structure and the adjustment of industrial structure in Shandong's foreign trade promote each other, and the structure of imported commodities can have a positive impact on the adjustment of the province's industrial structure. The adjustment of the province's industrial structure has a negative impact on the structure of imported commodities. On the basis of the above research, this paper analyzes the main reasons that influence Shandong's industrial structure and trade structure from two angles of internal demand and external demand. In the aspect of external demand, this paper discusses the foreign trade data of Shandong Province in sections based on the global financial crisis of 2008, and analyzes the change of quantity and proportion of classified export commodities in Shandong Province. Then the grey relational analysis method is introduced to study the changes of the correlation degree between the foreign trade structure and the industrial structure of Shandong Province before and after the economic crisis. Through comparative analysis, the correlation between the structure of labor-intensive export commodities and the change of industrial structure in Shandong Province has been improved, and the correlation degree between the export commodities of capital-technology-intensive products and the industrial structure has been greatly reduced. In terms of internal demand, this paper further refines the classification of the province's industrial structure, and uses Deng's grey relational analysis method to analyze the relationship between the internal demand structure and the industrial structure of Shandong Province. The analysis shows that the adjustment of consumption structure in Shandong Province has a certain pulling effect on the adjustment of industrial structure, and the consumption structure of Shandong Province has been improved to some extent, but the overall level is relatively low. This hinders Shandong Province from the external-demand-oriented to the-demand-driven trade structure adjustment. According to the above empirical conclusions and the actual situation of Shandong Province, this paper will provide corresponding policy recommendations for Shandong's foreign trade and industrial structure adjustment from the perspective of trade structure, industrial structure and demand structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.8;F121.3

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本文編號(hào)：1890253