本文選題：人口老齡化　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)不斷發(fā)展,養(yǎng)老服務(wù)體系不斷完善、醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生服務(wù)不斷改善、居民生活水平不斷提高等諸多因素的影響,使得人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生顯著的變化,老年人口比重不斷上升,對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生顯著的影響。我國(guó)在過(guò)去的十年內(nèi),人口與老年人口增長(zhǎng)的比例分別為4.61%、36.80%,表明我國(guó)人口老齡化在不斷地加劇;此外,人口老齡化加劇程度在全國(guó)分布存在著顯著的區(qū)域差異性:東部地區(qū)的老齡化程度顯著高于中、西部地區(qū)。2013年,我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)從過(guò)去的“二、三、一”格局逐步調(diào)整為現(xiàn)在的“三、二、一”格局,并且第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值比重存在著顯著的地區(qū)差異:東部地區(qū)高于中部地區(qū),中部地區(qū)高于西部地區(qū),沿海地區(qū)高于內(nèi)陸地區(qū)。為此,本文對(duì)我國(guó)人口老齡化影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的進(jìn)行深入的理論與計(jì)量研究,得出以下結(jié)論。在人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響機(jī)制的研究結(jié)果中,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)人口老齡化從供給與需求兩個(gè)方面來(lái)影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。進(jìn)一步,運(yùn)用索洛經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型推導(dǎo)中,我們認(rèn)為人口老齡化影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的機(jī)制為:人口老齡化↑→儲(chǔ)蓄率↓→人均儲(chǔ)蓄↓→資本深化↓→產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)↓。Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果證實(shí)了上述推導(dǎo)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的顯著性與傳導(dǎo)方向的準(zhǔn)確性;格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果證實(shí)了人口老齡化對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)儲(chǔ)蓄率有幫助,儲(chǔ)蓄率對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)資本深化有幫助,資本深化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)有幫助;從而也說(shuō)明了關(guān)于索洛經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型推導(dǎo)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的可靠性。在數(shù)理推導(dǎo)與檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,選取2003~2014年我國(guó)省際面板數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)人口老齡化影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的計(jì)量研究,結(jié)果表明人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響系數(shù)-0.229,并且通過(guò)了5%的置信水平,表明在不考慮其他因素影響的情況下,人口老齡化每加劇1%,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)將會(huì)降低0.229%,表明人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)具有顯著的負(fù)面影響。外商直接投資對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的非線(xiàn)性影響,表現(xiàn)為“倒U”型關(guān)系;政策制度對(duì)技術(shù)進(jìn)步與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的關(guān)系產(chǎn)生顯著的調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng)。此外,人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響也存在區(qū)域差異性,主要表現(xiàn)為東部地區(qū)人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)具有正向的推動(dòng)作用;在中、西部地區(qū),人口老齡化將抑制中西部地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),并且老齡化對(duì)中部地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)抑制效果更高。最后,結(jié)合計(jì)量研究結(jié)果,提出相對(duì)應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the economic and social development of our country, the continuous improvement of the old-age service system, the continuous improvement of the medical and health services, and the continuous improvement of the living standards of the residents, the age structure of the population has undergone significant changes. The proportion of the elderly population is rising, which has a significant impact on the employment structure and the industrial structure. In the past ten years, the proportion of population to the elderly population growth in our country has been 4.61% or 36.80 respectively, which indicates that the aging of the population in our country is constantly increasing; in addition, There are significant regional differences in the aggravation of population aging in the whole country: the aging degree in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions. In 2013, the industrial structure of our country changed from the past "two, three, three," The first "pattern" has been gradually adjusted to the present "three, two, one" pattern, and there are significant regional differences in the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry: the eastern region is higher than the central region, and the central region is higher than the western region. The coastal areas are higher than the inland areas. Therefore, this paper makes a deep theoretical and quantitative study on the impact of aging population on the upgrading of industrial structure in China. The following conclusions are drawn. In the results of the research on the influence mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure, we find that population aging affects the industrial structure from the two aspects of supply and demand. Further, in the derivation of Solow's economic growth model, In our opinion, the mechanism of the aging of the population affecting the upgrading of the industrial structure is: the aging of the population. 鈫戔啋Savings rate. 鈫撯啋Per capita savings. 鈫撯啋Capital deepening. 鈫撯啋Industrial structure upgrading. 鈫揟he results of the Johansen cointegration test confirm the significance of the conduction mechanism and the accuracy of the transmission direction, and the Granger causality test confirms that the aging population is helpful in predicting the savings rate, and that the savings rate is helpful to the deepening of the projected capital. Capital deepening is helpful to forecast the upgrading of industrial structure, which also explains the reliability of transmission mechanism derived from Solow's economic growth model. The econometric study on the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading by interprovincial panel data from 2003 to 2014 in China is carried out. The results show that the impact coefficient of population aging on industrial structure upgrading is -0.229, and the confidence level of 5% is passed. Without taking into account other factors, For each aggravation of population aging, the upgrading of industrial structure will be reduced by 0.229, which indicates that the aging of the population has a significant negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure. The nonlinear effect of foreign direct investment on the upgrading of industrial structure is characterized by "inverted U" type relationship. The policy system has a significant regulatory effect on the relationship between technological progress and industrial structure upgrading. In addition, there are regional differences in the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading. In the central and western regions, the aging of the population will restrain the upgrading of the industrial structure in the central and western regions. And aging is more effective to restrain the industrial structure upgrading in the central region. Finally, combined with the results of econometric research, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.24;F124

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