本文關(guān)鍵詞： 對外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu) 貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) 服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前中國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的同源關(guān)系存在一定的背離現(xiàn)象,彼此之間不能形成良性的互動升級關(guān)系,導(dǎo)致對中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生不良影響。因此,深入研究中國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響,探索通過優(yōu)化對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)來促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整升級具有很強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。針對上述問題,本文在深入分析對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系、對外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響機(jī)理的基礎(chǔ)上,通過實(shí)證分析檢驗(yàn)了中國對外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用過程。首先,本文采用并改進(jìn)了測度產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級更加合理的指標(biāo)——"產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化"和"產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化"進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。其次,本文把對外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)的概念拓展為貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)以及被已有研究所忽略的服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。最后,通過協(xié)整分析、誤差修正模型和脈沖響應(yīng)分析得到了對外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的長期影響關(guān)系、短期調(diào)整效應(yīng)和動態(tài)影響關(guān)系。實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示:長期來看,中國貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)(GST)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級具有正向的促進(jìn)作用,但在短期中國貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)(GST)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級影響并不顯著;而服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)(SST)無論是長期、短期還是動態(tài)影響,對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化或者是影響不顯著,或者是有一定的抑制作用。該結(jié)果也證實(shí)了當(dāng)前中國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間具有一定背離現(xiàn)象的觀點(diǎn)。由此本文得出以下結(jié)論:對于貨物貿(mào)易,在長期中,由于工業(yè)制成品的凈出口有助于中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,因此中國應(yīng)該繼續(xù)注重工業(yè)制成品等高附加值產(chǎn)品的出口,通過優(yōu)化貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)達(dá)到促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的目的。但是此做法并不能在短期內(nèi)有效地促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級,可見解決中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的問題需要站在長期發(fā)展的角度,統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃,穩(wěn)步推進(jìn),不可一蹴而就。對于服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),目前最緊迫的問題應(yīng)首先繼續(xù)發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易,進(jìn)一步提高進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額的同時,擺脫多年來服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差的困境。其次,繼續(xù)保持中高技術(shù)服務(wù)貿(mào)易凈出口的勢頭,擴(kuò)大高附加值產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易。
[Abstract]:At present, the homologous relationship between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure is deviated from each other to a certain extent, and can not form a benign interactive and upgrading relationship between each other, which leads to a negative impact on China's economic development. It is of great practical significance to deeply study the influence of China's foreign trade structure on the upgrading of industrial structure and to explore how to optimize the structure of foreign trade to promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the deep analysis of the relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, the influence mechanism of foreign trade commodity structure on industrial structure upgrading, Through the empirical analysis, this paper examines the process of the effect of China's foreign trade commodity structure on the upgrading of industrial structure. First of all, This paper adopts and improves the more reasonable indicators to measure the upgrading of industrial structure-"rationalization of industrial structure" and "high level of industrial structure". Secondly, In this paper, the concept of commodity structure of foreign trade is extended to the structure of trade in goods and the structure of trade in services which has been neglected by existing research. The error correction model and impulse response analysis show that the foreign trade commodity structure has a long-term effect on industrial structure upgrading, a short-term adjustment effect and a dynamic impact relationship. China's goods trade structure (GST) has a positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, but in the short term China's goods trade structure (GST) has no significant effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, while the service trade structure (SST) has no significant impact on the industrial structure upgrading in the long, short or dynamic. It does not have a significant impact on the rationalization of the industrial structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure, The results also confirm the view that there is a certain deviation between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure. The following conclusions are drawn in this paper: for trade in goods, in the long run, Since net exports of manufactured goods contribute to the upgrading of China's industrial structure, China should continue to focus on exports of high value-added products such as manufactured goods. By optimizing the structure of trade in goods, we can achieve the purpose of promoting industrial upgrading. However, this approach cannot effectively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the short term. Therefore, it can be seen that to solve the problem of upgrading the industrial structure in China, we need to stand at a long-term development point of view. As for the structure of trade in services, the most pressing issues at present should first continue to develop trade in services, while further increasing the volume of trade between imports and exports. Second, we should continue to maintain the momentum of net exports of medium-to-high-tech services trade and expand trade in high-value-added products.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.6;F121.3

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