發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-05 21:40

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 老廠區(qū) 創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園 不確定性 模糊Borda數(shù) 云模型　出處：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)飛速發(fā)展,效益日漸明顯,并將逐漸成為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。另一方面,隨著城市轉(zhuǎn)型和產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整的步伐越來越快,大量工廠外遷,城市中存在很多閑置的老廠區(qū)。創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)作為一種新興產(chǎn)業(yè),正處于起步階段,恰需要大量滿足自身要求的空間場(chǎng)所。老廠區(qū)改造為創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園的模式便于此刻應(yīng)運(yùn)而生,并在全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)迅速蔓延。過快過熱的改造必然會(huì)暴露出一些問題。如何判斷這種改造模式的不確定性以及如何應(yīng)對(duì)這接踵而至的問題成為當(dāng)下的難題。本文在廣泛調(diào)研與深入實(shí)踐的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)老廠區(qū)改造為創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園的不確定性進(jìn)行研究。完善了老廠區(qū)改造再利用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論體系,同時(shí)對(duì)開發(fā)商的理性投資也具有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。本文主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:(1)匯總調(diào)研成果,總結(jié)分析影響因素。根據(jù)全國(guó)20多個(gè)城市老廠區(qū)改造為創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園的發(fā)展情況,分析該改造模式的特點(diǎn)。通過在老鋼廠改造項(xiàng)目中的長(zhǎng)期實(shí)踐,進(jìn)一步加深了解,從而歸納出影響其改造效果的不確定性因素。(2)建立不確定性因素指標(biāo)體系,構(gòu)建不確定性度量模型。以一般建設(shè)項(xiàng)目不確定性研究理論為基礎(chǔ),綜合考慮老廠區(qū)和創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性以及各自的特點(diǎn),從人、物、環(huán)境三方面構(gòu)建與該改造模式相適應(yīng)的指標(biāo)體系。由于這三要素之間會(huì)互相影響,所以本文以三種構(gòu)成要素之間交互相乘的關(guān)系為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了不確定性度量模型。(3)測(cè)算老廠區(qū)改造為創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園的綜合不確定性值。在分析調(diào)研資料以及專家咨詢的基礎(chǔ)上,利用模糊Borda數(shù)分析法充分考慮群體的意見,逐級(jí)確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重。隨后通過已構(gòu)建的不確定性度量模型測(cè)算老廠區(qū)在創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園改造模式下的綜合不確定性結(jié)果。(4)將云模型理論引入到老廠區(qū)改造為創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園的不確定性研究中。綜合體現(xiàn)了不確定性的模糊性和隨機(jī)性兩方面內(nèi)涵,并通過正向云發(fā)生器、逆向云發(fā)生器以及X-條件云發(fā)生器生成云圖,將指標(biāo)對(duì)各等級(jí)概念的隸屬度直觀的表示出來,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)了定量數(shù)據(jù)與定性概念之間的相互轉(zhuǎn)換。(5)以陜西某鋼廠改造為創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)園的項(xiàng)目為例,對(duì)本文構(gòu)建的不確定性指標(biāo)體系、度量模型以及評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,通過與實(shí)際情況相對(duì)比,驗(yàn)證其合理性。
[Abstract]:At present, the creative industry is developing rapidly, the benefits are becoming more and more obvious, and will gradually become the pillar industry of our country's economic development. On the other hand, with the rapid pace of urban transformation and industrial adjustment, a large number of factories have moved out of the country. There are many idle old factories in the city. As a new industry, creative industry is in its infancy. Just need a large number of space to meet their own requirements. The old factory into a creative industrial park model is convenient to emerge as the times require. And spread rapidly throughout the country. The transformation of too fast and overheated will inevitably expose some problems. How to judge the uncertainty of this transformation model and how to deal with the ensuing problems become the current problem. On the basis of extensive investigation and deep practice. The uncertainty of transforming the old factory area into the creative industry park is studied, and the risk management theory system of the old factory district reconstruction and reuse is improved. At the same time, the rational investment of developers also has certain guiding significance. The main research content of this paper is as follows: 1) summarize the research results. According to the development of transforming the old factory area into the creative industry park in more than 20 cities in China, the characteristics of the transformation mode are analyzed. The long-term practice in the renovation project of the old steel plant is discussed. Further deepen the understanding, thus induces the uncertain factors that affect the effect of transformation. 2) establish the index system of uncertainty factors. Build uncertainty measurement model. Based on the theory of uncertainty of general construction project, consider the relationship between old factory and creative industry park and their respective characteristics, from people, things. Three aspects of the environment and the construction of the transformation model to adapt to the index system. Because these three elements will affect each other, so this paper based on the three components of the interactive multiplication of the relationship. The uncertainty measurement model. 3) is constructed to calculate the comprehensive uncertainty value of the old factory area transformed into the creative industry park. Based on the analysis of the research data and expert consultation. The fuzzy Borda number analysis method is used to fully consider the opinions of the group. The index weight is determined step by step. Then the comprehensive uncertainty result of the old factory area under the innovation mode of creative industry park is calculated by the uncertainty measurement model. The cloud model theory is introduced into the uncertainty study of the old factory area transformed into the creative industry park, which comprehensively embodies the ambiguity and randomness of the uncertainty. And through the forward cloud generator, the reverse cloud generator and the X- conditional cloud generator to generate the cloud map, the index of the concept of each level of membership is visually expressed. Thus realizing the mutual conversion between quantitative data and qualitative concepts.) taking the project of transforming a steel factory into a creative industry park in Shaanxi as an example, the uncertainty index system is constructed in this paper. The measurement model and the evaluation model are verified and compared with the actual situation to verify its rationality.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TU984.114

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