本文關(guān)鍵詞： 老撾 電力產(chǎn)業(yè) 電力消費量 國民經(jīng)濟 電力消費彈性系數(shù) 協(xié)整分析 回歸分析 嶺回歸　出處：《昆明理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟發(fā)展越來越離不開能源的支持。電力作為一種最基本的能源形式,在國民的經(jīng)濟中發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用。經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展離不開電力發(fā)展的支持,同樣電力的發(fā)展也需要經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的帶動。當電力缺乏時,就會嚴重影響國民經(jīng)濟各產(chǎn)業(yè)的運行,從而影響國民經(jīng)濟的增長。電力產(chǎn)業(yè)作為基礎(chǔ)行業(yè),在國民生產(chǎn)中扮演著重要的角色,兩者相互影響,相互推動。因此,電力消費已經(jīng)成為關(guān)乎國民經(jīng)濟又好又快發(fā)展的重要因素。在老撾經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的進程中,一直出現(xiàn)供電量不足,造成了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度緩慢。所以,如何進行科學的供電管理以滿足電力需求,確保不會出現(xiàn)大面積停電現(xiàn)象,是老撾亟待解決的問題。而關(guān)鍵是準確把握電力行業(yè)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,并且能夠做出科學的電力產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃。本文運用了計量經(jīng)濟學時間序列模型分析了老撾電力產(chǎn)業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的關(guān)系。首先,對老撾電力消費量與國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的關(guān)系進行探討,發(fā)現(xiàn)電力消費量與經(jīng)濟增長之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系,并且存在從經(jīng)濟增長到電力消費量的單向因果關(guān)系。其次,對三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的用電量及其增加值的協(xié)整分析則表明第一產(chǎn)業(yè)與第二產(chǎn)業(yè)在用電量與其增加值之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,并就此建立了相應(yīng)的誤差修正模型。最后,基于電力消費量的影響因素,建立了多元回歸模型與嶺回歸模型,預測了電力消費的需求量。在回歸模型中最為顯著的兩個自變量為國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的自然對數(shù)與電力進口量的自然對數(shù),這兩個因素解釋了老撾電力消費的自然對數(shù)變化量的99.5%；嶺回歸模型中最為顯著的三個自變量為國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的自然對數(shù)、老撾人口與電力進口量的自然對數(shù),它們解釋了老撾電力消費的自然對數(shù)變化量的99.6%。通過對電力產(chǎn)業(yè)和國民經(jīng)濟關(guān)系的定量分析,我們不僅可以了解電力消費在國民經(jīng)濟中的重要性,并能進一步預測電力消費的變化趨勢,對老撾電力產(chǎn)業(yè)的建設(shè)具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義和推動作用。
[Abstract]:More and more modern economic development cannot do without the support of energy power. As one of the most basic form of energy, plays an increasingly important role in the national economy. Economic development cannot do without the support of the development of electric power, the same power development also needs the drive for economic development. When the lack of electricity, will be serious the industry of the national economy operation, thereby affecting the growth of the national economy. The electric power industry as a basic industry, plays an important role in the national production, mutual influence, mutual promotion. Therefore, power consumption has become an important factor related to the sound and rapid development of the national economy. In Laos in the process of economic development, has been power shortage, caused by the slow pace of economic development. Therefore, how to carry out the scientific management of power supply to meet the demand for electricity, to ensure that there is no blackout phenomenon, which is Laos To solve the problem. And the key is to accurately grasp the relationship between the development of electric power industry and economic development, and make the development planning of power industry science. In this paper, using econometric time series model to analyze the relations between Laos electric power industry and national economic development. Firstly, discusses the relationship of power consumption and national economy of Laos the development, found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, and from economic growth to the power consumption of the one-way causal relationship. Secondly, with the analysis of power and the increase in the value of the association of the three industries is that the first and second industry in power consumption and increase the cointegration relationship value between, and to the establishment of the corresponding error correction model. Finally, factors affecting the power consumption based on the established multiple regression model and ridge regression model, Forecast the demand of power consumption. In the regression model for the two variables was the natural logarithm of the natural logarithm of GDP and electricity import volume, the two factors explain the change in the natural logarithm of Laos electricity consumption 99.5%; ridge regression model in the three most significant natural variables the logarithm of GDP, the natural logarithm of Laos population and power imports, they explain the variation of the natural logarithm of the electricity consumption of Laos 99.6%. through quantitative analysis of the electric power industry and the national economy relations, we can not only understand the importance of power consumption in the national economy, and further predict the change trend of electricity consumption. Has important practical significance on the construction of electric power industry in Laos and role.

【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F416.61;F133.4

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