【摘要】：電動(dòng)汽車作為節(jié)能減排的有效手段,同時(shí)也是國家大力扶持的產(chǎn)業(yè),近年來在社會(huì)各界受到了廣泛關(guān)注。在電動(dòng)汽車的發(fā)展過程中,不可避免的會(huì)涉及充電設(shè)施,其對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車普及的促進(jìn)作用不言而喻,但充電樁作為市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)物,具有商業(yè)屬性,受成本、市場(chǎng)等因素影響。本文從間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)角度出發(fā),分析電動(dòng)汽車與充電樁市場(chǎng)之間的影響機(jī)理,探討合理的充電樁規(guī)模,并基于此對(duì)兩種類型的充電樁點(diǎn)位的選址進(jìn)行分析。間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)是研究互補(bǔ)市場(chǎng)中,各自的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模對(duì)對(duì)方的影響,簡(jiǎn)言之是研究"雞和蛋"的關(guān)系,兩者之間既可以是正反饋,帶來互利雙贏,也可以是負(fù)反饋,導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)品推廣失敗。本文探討電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)與充電樁市場(chǎng)間的間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng),分別構(gòu)建消費(fèi)者采用決策方程以及充電樁運(yùn)營企業(yè)的進(jìn)入決策方程,通過聯(lián)立方程,分析是否到達(dá)均衡狀態(tài)以及均衡點(diǎn)的性質(zhì)。在達(dá)到均衡時(shí),第一個(gè)均衡點(diǎn)至關(guān)重要,對(duì)于互補(bǔ)市場(chǎng)而言,市場(chǎng)規(guī)模未超過該點(diǎn),則市場(chǎng)將最終面臨失敗,反之,即使在其他條件未變的情況下,市場(chǎng)也會(huì)自發(fā)的趨向更高層次的普及。本文以北京市為例,通過搜集歷年銷量數(shù)據(jù),通過Eviews回歸方程估計(jì)具體參數(shù)值。這一結(jié)論不僅為選址提供約束條件,均衡狀態(tài)分析還對(duì)相關(guān)部門出臺(tái)激勵(lì)政策提供了參考。在選址部分,主要為公共充電樁點(diǎn)位選址定容。充電樁點(diǎn)位,即充電樁集群,不同于充電站,點(diǎn)位具有無需占地,更加靈活等特點(diǎn)。在以往的研究中,通常將城市內(nèi)的需求概括為點(diǎn)需求,城市間的需求為路徑需求,但在實(shí)際生活中,電動(dòng)汽車作為短途出行工具,往往同時(shí)面臨點(diǎn)需求和路徑需求。本文創(chuàng)新性的綜合考慮用戶的點(diǎn)需求和路徑需求,以服務(wù)車輛最多為目標(biāo),分別構(gòu)建一般情形下和基于間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)下的選址定容模型。以海淀區(qū)為例,分析2017年四個(gè)季度的布局決策,通過Lingo軟件進(jìn)行求解。結(jié)果證明,一般情形下,充電樁和電動(dòng)汽車規(guī)模是遞減的,而基于間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)情形下,兩者是遞增的。結(jié)合選址結(jié)論分析運(yùn)營商的收益情況可知,后者前期投入大,但收益增長率大于前者。因此,基于間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)的選址定容,對(duì)于電動(dòng)汽車推廣以及運(yùn)營商收益都是有積極影響的。
[Abstract]:Electric vehicle, as an effective means of energy saving and emission reduction, is also an industry supported by our country. In recent years, it has received extensive attention in all walks of life. In the process of the development of electric vehicles, charging facilities will inevitably be involved, and its promotion to the popularization of electric vehicles is self-evident. However, as a product of the market, charging piles have commercial properties and are affected by such factors as cost, market and so on. From the point of view of indirect network effect, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism between electric vehicle and charging pile market, discusses the reasonable size of charging pile, and analyzes the location of two kinds of charging pile points based on this. Indirect network effect is to study the influence of each market size on each other in complementary markets. In short, it is to study the relationship between "chicken and egg". The relationship between the two can be positive feedback, mutual benefit and win-win, or negative feedback. Lead to product promotion failure. In this paper, the indirect network effect between the electric vehicle market and the charging pile market is discussed, and the decision-making equation of consumer adoption and the entry decision-making equation of the charging pile operation enterprise are constructed, respectively, by means of the simultaneous equation. Whether to reach the equilibrium state and the properties of the equilibrium point are analyzed. When equilibrium is reached, the first equilibrium point is essential, and for complementary markets, where the size of the market does not exceed that point, the market will eventually face failure and, conversely, even if other conditions remain unchanged, The market will also spontaneously tend to a higher level of popularity. In this paper, Beijing is taken as an example, by collecting the data of sales over the past years, the specific parameters are estimated by the Eviews regression equation. This conclusion not only provides constraints for location selection, but also provides a reference for the relevant departments to issue incentive policies. In the location part, mainly for the public charging pile site location fixed capacity. Charging pile point, that is, charging pile cluster, which is different from charging station, has the characteristics of no need to occupy land, more flexibility and so on. In previous studies, the demand in a city is usually summarized as a point demand, and the demand between cities is a path demand. However, in real life, as a short-distance travel tool, electric vehicles often face both point demand and path demand. In this paper, considering the user's point requirement and path requirement, this paper takes the maximum number of service vehicles as the goal, and constructs the location and volume determination models under general and indirect network effects respectively. Taking Haidian district as an example, the layout decision of four quarters in 2017 is analyzed and solved by Lingo software. The results show that in general, the size of charging piles and electric vehicles is decreasing, while in the case of indirect network effect, the size of charging piles and electric vehicles is increasing. Combined with the conclusion of location analysis, the operator's income situation shows that the latter has a large initial investment, but the revenue growth rate is greater than that of the former. Therefore, the location and capacity determination based on indirect network effect has a positive impact on the promotion of electric vehicles and the profit of operators.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.24

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