【摘要】：我國(guó)正處于新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)和工業(yè)化的快速發(fā)展中,新型城鎮(zhèn)化是我國(guó)未來發(fā)展的動(dòng)力。但我國(guó)現(xiàn)行城鎮(zhèn)化過程并非低碳,存在城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)用地粗放、資源消耗嚴(yán)重、道路交通高碳排放等問題。表明我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化不僅非低碳,反而是高碳高能耗的。為了解決我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程和碳減排之間的矛盾,對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)碳排放量進(jìn)行計(jì)算,并分析城鎮(zhèn)碳排放的影響因素,為低碳綠色、以人為本的低碳城鎮(zhèn)化道路提供基礎(chǔ)。在文獻(xiàn)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒國(guó)外城鎮(zhèn)化低碳發(fā)展的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn),分析我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的高碳排放現(xiàn)狀。并在收集整理各省能源消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,定量研究1995~2014年間30個(gè)省市的城鎮(zhèn)碳排放量。通過對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化率和城鎮(zhèn)碳排放的Eviews相關(guān)性分析,表明兩者之間是長(zhǎng)期協(xié)整的,進(jìn)而對(duì)我國(guó)30個(gè)省市城鎮(zhèn)碳排放的影響因素的區(qū)域差異進(jìn)行研究。為研究區(qū)域差異,在影響因素分析中,按照城鎮(zhèn)化水平將30個(gè)省市劃分為高、中、低三組樣本,采用STIRPAT模型進(jìn)行分析。本文影響因素的選擇依據(jù)模型,同時(shí)將產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)作為獨(dú)立的因子納入模型中。結(jié)果表明,高水平樣本組省市對(duì)人口因素和富裕程度因子最為敏感,中等水平樣本組對(duì)收入水平和城鎮(zhèn)化率最為敏感,而低水平樣本組產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因子的系數(shù)是三組中最高的。表明,五種因素都對(duì)碳排放產(chǎn)生影響,但各因素在不同的城鎮(zhèn)化水平下,敏感程度也各不相同。在STIRPAT模型分析的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從宏觀和微觀的角度提出適合我國(guó)新型城鎮(zhèn)化不同水平發(fā)展的低碳路徑。宏觀上要加強(qiáng)政府制度上的保障,微觀上分別對(duì)三種不同水平的城鎮(zhèn)化提出了不同的發(fā)展路徑:高城鎮(zhèn)化水平省市要順應(yīng)城市發(fā)展趨勢(shì),走平穩(wěn)適度并消費(fèi)低碳的城鎮(zhèn)化;對(duì)中等水平的省市,要調(diào)控人口過快增長(zhǎng),走人與環(huán)境和諧和理性消費(fèi)的低碳城鎮(zhèn)化;對(duì)低城鎮(zhèn)化水平省市,要在健康穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化時(shí),走技術(shù)支撐低碳可持續(xù)的綠色城鎮(zhèn)化道路。并提出適合我國(guó)低碳城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的措施。
[Abstract]:Our country is in the new urbanization construction and the industrialization fast development, the new type urbanization is our country future development motive force. However, the current process of urbanization in China is not low-carbon, there are problems such as extensive urban construction land, serious consumption of resources, high carbon emissions from road traffic, and so on. It shows that urbanization in China is not only low carbon, but high carbon and high energy consumption. In order to solve the contradiction between urbanization process and carbon emission reduction in China, this paper calculates the urban carbon emissions and analyzes the influencing factors of urban carbon emissions, which provides the basis for low-carbon green and people-oriented low-carbon urbanization road. On the basis of literature analysis, the current situation of high carbon emission of urbanization in China is analyzed by using the experience and lessons of low carbon development of urbanization abroad for reference. Based on the data of energy consumption in different provinces, the carbon emissions of 30 cities and towns from 1995 to 2014 were studied quantitatively. Through the Eviews correlation analysis of urbanization rate and urban carbon emission, it is shown that there is a long-term cointegration between them, and then the regional differences of influencing factors of urban carbon emissions in 30 provinces and cities in China are studied. In order to study the regional differences, 30 provinces and cities were divided into three groups according to the urbanization level and analyzed by STIRPAT model. The choice of influencing factors is based on the model, and the industrial structure as an independent factor into the model. The results showed that the provinces and cities in the high level sample group were most sensitive to the population factor and the affluence factor, the middle level sample group was the most sensitive to the income level and the urbanization rate, and the coefficient of the industrial structure factor of the low level sample group was the highest among the three groups. The results showed that all of the five factors had an effect on carbon emissions, but the sensitivity of each factor was different under different urbanization levels. Based on the analysis of STIRPAT model, the low-carbon paths suitable for different levels of urbanization in China are put forward from the macro and micro perspectives. Macroscopically, we should strengthen the guarantee of government system, and microscopically put forward different development paths to three different levels of urbanization: the provinces and cities with high urbanization level should conform to the trend of urban development, take a steady and moderate urbanization with low carbon consumption; For the middle level provinces and cities, we should adjust and control the rapid population growth, walk away from the environment and harmonious and rational consumption of low-carbon urbanization; For the provinces and cities with low urbanization level, we should take the technology to support the sustainable green urbanization of low carbon when we promote urbanization healthily and steadily. And put forward the measures suitable for the development of low-carbon urbanization in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.21

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