【摘要】：進入21世紀的第二個十年以來,陜西省的經濟發(fā)展迎來全面轉型期,增速放緩,改革走到了攻堅克難的十字路口,需全面深化,在新常態(tài)景下要實現(xiàn)經濟社會快速發(fā)展的目標,有賴于釋放廣大農村的經濟增長潛力、產業(yè)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢等,而要釋放這些潛力,必須加速推進城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化發(fā)展。推進其發(fā)展,需要戰(zhàn)略的整體謀劃、路徑的深入探尋,而這一切的首要前提是對其動力機制進行準確把握,才能據(jù)此制定有針對性的對策。本文運用系統(tǒng)動力學方法構建陜西省城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化動力機制模型并進行仿真分析,具體研究內容和主要結論如下:(1)從經濟一體化、社會一體化兩個角度剖析陜西省城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎上分析其存在的問題并找出導致該問題出現(xiàn)的原因。結果表明:陜西省經濟社會的快速發(fā)展為城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌奠定了夯實的物質基礎,但依然存在城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距有待縮小、城鄉(xiāng)產業(yè)結構有待優(yōu)化、城鄉(xiāng)教育的公平性有待提升、城鄉(xiāng)醫(yī)療資源配置有待均衡、城鄉(xiāng)生活方式的二元格局有待改變等問題;出現(xiàn)上述問題的原因在于城鎮(zhèn)輻射能力有限、工業(yè)反哺力度不足、農業(yè)生產效益較低、信息化帶動作用不強。(2)在對四化協(xié)同推進陜西省城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化的作用機理進行解析的基礎上,運用格蘭杰因果檢驗客觀判斷動力機制內部變量間的因果關系,據(jù)此繪制因果關系圖將動力機制的概念模型表現(xiàn)出來。結果表明:動力機制中的“源”(四化變量)與“匯”(城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化變量)正方向變動;四化主要通過影響農民收入水平、農村非農產業(yè)發(fā)展水平、農民文化水平、農村基礎設施水平進而對城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化產生推動作用。(3)通過繪制系統(tǒng)流圖、估計變量式組構建仿真模型,在此基礎上進行預測和政策模擬,結果表明:在無調控狀態(tài)下,陜西省的城鄉(xiāng)收入差距、城鄉(xiāng)文化差距、城鄉(xiāng)基礎設施差距在未來一段時期均呈緩慢下降態(tài)勢,城鄉(xiāng)產業(yè)融合水平、城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化水平呈緩慢上升趨勢;在有調控狀態(tài)下,陜西省城鄉(xiāng)經濟社會一體化水平的增長速度有所加快,且發(fā)現(xiàn)農業(yè)產業(yè)化、農業(yè)科技化、城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移、工業(yè)科技、城鄉(xiāng)產業(yè)轉移、信息技術、工業(yè)發(fā)展、信息資源、信息產業(yè)發(fā)展對其推動效應依次遞減。
[Abstract]:Since entering the second decade of the 21st century, the economic development of Shaanxi Province has ushered in a comprehensive transformation period, the growth rate has slowed down, the reform has reached the crossroads where it is difficult to tackle difficult problems, it needs to be comprehensively deepened, and the goal of rapid economic and social development is to be realized under the new normal situation. It depends on releasing the economic growth potential of the vast rural areas and the advantages of industrial latecomer, but in order to release these potentials, it is necessary to accelerate the development of economic and social integration between urban and rural areas. In order to advance its development, it is necessary to plan the whole strategy and explore the path deeply, and the first premise of all this is to grasp its motive mechanism accurately, so as to formulate corresponding countermeasures accordingly. In this paper, the dynamic mechanism model of urban and rural economic and social integration in Shaanxi Province is constructed with the method of system dynamics. The specific research contents and main conclusions are as follows: (1) from the perspective of economic integration, On the basis of analyzing the present situation of the economic and social integration of urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province from two angles of social integration, this paper analyzes the existing problems and finds out the causes of the problems. The results show that the rapid development of economy and society in Shaanxi Province has laid a solid material foundation for the overall planning of urban and rural areas, but there still exists the income gap between urban and rural residents to be narrowed, the industrial structure of urban and rural areas to be optimized, and the equity of urban and rural education to be improved. The allocation of medical resources in urban and rural areas needs to be balanced, and the dual pattern of urban and rural lifestyle needs to be changed. The reasons for the above problems lie in the limited radiation capacity of cities and towns, the insufficiency of industrial feedback, and the low efficiency of agricultural production. (2) on the basis of analyzing the mechanism of promoting the integration of urban and rural economy and society in Shaanxi Province, Granger causality test is used to objectively judge the causality between the internal variables of the dynamic mechanism. The conceptual model of dynamic mechanism is represented by drawing causality diagram. The results show that the "source" and "sink" in the dynamic mechanism are changing in a positive direction. The four modernizations mainly affect the income level of farmers, the development level of non-agricultural industries in rural areas, the level of farmers' culture, the level of rural infrastructure, and then promote the integration of urban and rural economy and society. (3) by drawing the system flow map, The simulation model of estimating variable group is constructed, and the prediction and policy simulation are carried out on this basis. The results show that under the condition of no regulation and control, the income gap between urban and rural areas, the cultural gap between urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province, The gap between urban and rural infrastructure is decreasing slowly in the coming period. The level of industrial convergence between urban and rural areas and the level of economic and social integration between urban and rural areas are rising slowly. Under the state of regulation and control, the level of economic and social integration between urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province has accelerated, and it has been found that agricultural industrialization, agricultural science and technology, urban and rural population migration, industrial science and technology, urban and rural industrial transfer, information technology, industrial development, Information resources, the development of information industry to its promotion effect in turn decline.
【學位授予單位】：西安理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.27;F327

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