【摘要】：匯率是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要金融政策工具,反映了一國貨幣相對于另一國貨幣的購買力,不僅是一國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的反映,而且影響一國對外貿(mào)易甚至就業(yè)狀況。自2005年7月21日起,我國開始實(shí)行以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動匯率制度,人民幣匯率長期保持穩(wěn)步升值。但2015年以來,金融市場出現(xiàn)了較大動蕩,人民幣對美元匯率大幅波動,呈現(xiàn)貶值趨勢。2016年10月1日,人民幣正式加入國際貨幣基金組織(SDR),這是推動人民幣國際化取得的重大成就,表明人民幣在國際金融市場上的地位上進(jìn)一步上升。目前我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度由原來的高速增長步入常態(tài)化發(fā)展階段,經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力較大。就業(yè)作為民生之本,關(guān)系著國家和社會的安定穩(wěn)固,而我國新增就業(yè)人口逐年增加,在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力下,就業(yè)形勢越發(fā)嚴(yán)峻。因此在新經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下,研究人民幣匯率對我國就業(yè)的影響,化解當(dāng)前就業(yè)形勢嚴(yán)峻的難題,具有重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文研究人民幣匯率變動對我國就業(yè)的影響,從理論和實(shí)證兩方面深入分析。理論方面,首先梳理了關(guān)于匯率和就業(yè)的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ),并對我國匯率和就業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了簡介,其次分析了我國匯率影響就業(yè)的傳導(dǎo)路徑,即人民幣匯率會通過出口貿(mào)易傳導(dǎo)路徑、外商直接投資傳導(dǎo)路徑和資源配置傳導(dǎo)路徑對就業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。實(shí)證分析方面,以2001-2015年我國31個省份(市、區(qū))的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)作為研究對象,建立面板模型,首先從全國整體層面實(shí)證分析了人民幣匯率變動對我國就業(yè)的影響,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣匯率變動會引致就業(yè)量反向變動;其次通過地區(qū)層面探究人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動對東中西部地區(qū)就業(yè)的影響及其差異;最后從行業(yè)層面探究該影響及在不同行業(yè)間的差異。研究結(jié)果表明,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率變動對我國東、中、西部地區(qū)就業(yè)影響存在較大差異:人民幣匯率變動對東部和中部地區(qū)就業(yè)會呈現(xiàn)較明顯的負(fù)向沖擊效應(yīng),但對西部地區(qū)就業(yè)影響不顯著。從行業(yè)層面來看,人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動對交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)以及住宿和餐飲業(yè)就業(yè)影響不顯著,但對其他幾個行業(yè)就業(yè)影響都是顯著的,匯率升值會拉動金融行業(yè)就業(yè)增長,抑制農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)、制造業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、批發(fā)零售業(yè)的就業(yè)增長。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is an important financial policy tool in the national economy, which reflects the purchasing power of one country's currency relative to another country's currency. It is not only a reflection of a country's economic strength, but also affects a country's foreign trade and even employment situation. Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate has been steadily appreciated for a long time. However, since 2015, the financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence. The RMB has fluctuated sharply against the US dollar, showing a trend of depreciation. On October 1, 2016, The formal entry of the renminbi into the (SDR), is a major achievement in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, indicating that the yuan's position in international financial markets has risen further. At present, China's economic growth rate from the original high-speed growth into a normal stage of development, economic downward pressure is greater. Employment, as the foundation of people's livelihood, relates to the stability and stability of the country and the society. However, the new employment population in China is increasing year by year. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the employment situation is becoming more and more severe. Therefore, under the new economic situation, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate on employment in our country and to resolve the serious problem of current employment situation. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China, and analyzes it theoretically and empirically. In theory, it firstly combs the relevant theoretical basis of exchange rate and employment, introduces the current situation of exchange rate and employment in China, and then analyzes the transmission path of exchange rate affecting employment in China. That is, RMB exchange rate will influence employment through export trade transmission path, foreign direct investment transmission path and resource allocation transmission path. In the empirical analysis, taking the data of 31 provinces (cities and districts) from 2001 to 2015 as the research object, the panel model is established. Firstly, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China from the overall level of the whole country. It is found that the change of RMB exchange rate will lead to the reverse change of employment volume. Secondly, the influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on employment in the eastern, western and western regions and its differences are explored at the regional level. Finally, from the industry level to explore the impact and the differences between different industries. The results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has great difference on employment in the east, middle and west of China: the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions, and the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions of China. However, the impact on employment in the western region is not significant. At the industry level, the change in the real exchange rate of the RMB has no significant impact on the employment of transportation, accommodation and catering industries, but it has a significant impact on employment in several other industries. The appreciation of the exchange rate will stimulate the growth of employment in the financial sector. Agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail employment growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F249.2

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