發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-05 10:17

【摘要】：匯率是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要金融政策工具,反映了一國(guó)貨幣相對(duì)于另一國(guó)貨幣的購(gòu)買力,不僅是一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的反映,而且影響一國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易甚至就業(yè)狀況。自2005年7月21日起,我國(guó)開始實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度,人民幣匯率長(zhǎng)期保持穩(wěn)步升值。但2015年以來(lái),金融市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了較大動(dòng)蕩,人民幣對(duì)美元匯率大幅波動(dòng),呈現(xiàn)貶值趨勢(shì)。2016年10月1日,人民幣正式加入國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(SDR),這是推動(dòng)人民幣國(guó)際化取得的重大成就,表明人民幣在國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)上的地位上進(jìn)一步上升。目前我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度由原來(lái)的高速增長(zhǎng)步入常態(tài)化發(fā)展階段,經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力較大。就業(yè)作為民生之本,關(guān)系著國(guó)家和社會(huì)的安定穩(wěn)固,而我國(guó)新增就業(yè)人口逐年增加,在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力下,就業(yè)形勢(shì)越發(fā)嚴(yán)峻。因此在新經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下,研究人民幣匯率對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)的影響,化解當(dāng)前就業(yè)形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻的難題,具有重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文研究人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)的影響,從理論和實(shí)證兩方面深入分析。理論方面,首先梳理了關(guān)于匯率和就業(yè)的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ),并對(duì)我國(guó)匯率和就業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)介,其次分析了我國(guó)匯率影響就業(yè)的傳導(dǎo)路徑,即人民幣匯率會(huì)通過(guò)出口貿(mào)易傳導(dǎo)路徑、外商直接投資傳導(dǎo)路徑和資源配置傳導(dǎo)路徑對(duì)就業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。實(shí)證分析方面,以2001-2015年我國(guó)31個(gè)省份(市、區(qū))的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)作為研究對(duì)象,建立面板模型,首先從全國(guó)整體層面實(shí)證分析了人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)的影響,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣匯率變動(dòng)會(huì)引致就業(yè)量反向變動(dòng);其次通過(guò)地區(qū)層面探究人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)東中西部地區(qū)就業(yè)的影響及其差異;最后從行業(yè)層面探究該影響及在不同行業(yè)間的差異。研究結(jié)果表明,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)東、中、西部地區(qū)就業(yè)影響存在較大差異:人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)東部和中部地區(qū)就業(yè)會(huì)呈現(xiàn)較明顯的負(fù)向沖擊效應(yīng),但對(duì)西部地區(qū)就業(yè)影響不顯著。從行業(yè)層面來(lái)看,人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)以及住宿和餐飲業(yè)就業(yè)影響不顯著,但對(duì)其他幾個(gè)行業(yè)就業(yè)影響都是顯著的,匯率升值會(huì)拉動(dòng)金融行業(yè)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng),抑制農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)、制造業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、批發(fā)零售業(yè)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is an important financial policy tool in the national economy, which reflects the purchasing power of one country's currency relative to another country's currency. It is not only a reflection of a country's economic strength, but also affects a country's foreign trade and even employment situation. Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate has been steadily appreciated for a long time. However, since 2015, the financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence. The RMB has fluctuated sharply against the US dollar, showing a trend of depreciation. On October 1, 2016, The formal entry of the renminbi into the (SDR), is a major achievement in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, indicating that the yuan's position in international financial markets has risen further. At present, China's economic growth rate from the original high-speed growth into a normal stage of development, economic downward pressure is greater. Employment, as the foundation of people's livelihood, relates to the stability and stability of the country and the society. However, the new employment population in China is increasing year by year. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the employment situation is becoming more and more severe. Therefore, under the new economic situation, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate on employment in our country and to resolve the serious problem of current employment situation. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China, and analyzes it theoretically and empirically. In theory, it firstly combs the relevant theoretical basis of exchange rate and employment, introduces the current situation of exchange rate and employment in China, and then analyzes the transmission path of exchange rate affecting employment in China. That is, RMB exchange rate will influence employment through export trade transmission path, foreign direct investment transmission path and resource allocation transmission path. In the empirical analysis, taking the data of 31 provinces (cities and districts) from 2001 to 2015 as the research object, the panel model is established. Firstly, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China from the overall level of the whole country. It is found that the change of RMB exchange rate will lead to the reverse change of employment volume. Secondly, the influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on employment in the eastern, western and western regions and its differences are explored at the regional level. Finally, from the industry level to explore the impact and the differences between different industries. The results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has great difference on employment in the east, middle and west of China: the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions, and the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions of China. However, the impact on employment in the western region is not significant. At the industry level, the change in the real exchange rate of the RMB has no significant impact on the employment of transportation, accommodation and catering industries, but it has a significant impact on employment in several other industries. The appreciation of the exchange rate will stimulate the growth of employment in the financial sector. Agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail employment growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F249.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 陳默;丁一兵;;實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)影響就業(yè)的中日韓比較分析[J];生產(chǎn)力研究;2016年05期

2 王松奇;徐虔;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2015年12期

3 王相寧;郭桂圓;;匯率的就業(yè)傳導(dǎo)渠道及其效應(yīng)測(cè)算——基于中國(guó)制造業(yè)面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證研究[J];運(yùn)籌與管理;2015年02期

4 楊華貴;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)影響的滯后效應(yīng)分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革;2014年03期

5 余菊;鄧昂;;人民幣匯率對(duì)就業(yè)的影響效應(yīng)——基于1985-2011年數(shù)據(jù)的協(xié)整分析[J];金融理論與教學(xué);2014年01期

6 徐偉呈;范愛軍;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)就業(yè)和工資的影響——基于中國(guó)制造業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)的實(shí)證研究[J];金融研究;2013年12期

7 戴覓;徐建煒;施炳展;;人民幣匯率沖擊與制造業(yè)就業(yè)——來(lái)自企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)[J];管理世界;2013年11期

8 仇喜雪;藍(lán)樂琴;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)影響的SVAR分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)論叢;2013年06期

9 鄭揚(yáng);;淺談人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)宏觀就業(yè)的影響[J];經(jīng)營(yíng)管理者;2013年04期

10 王剛貞;張卓成;;人民幣匯率對(duì)就業(yè)的影響路徑及實(shí)證研究[J];上海金融;2013年02期

，

本文編號(hào)：2223976