發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-29 20:19

【摘要】：研究目標(biāo):探究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動因結(jié)構(gòu)及轉(zhuǎn)換趨勢。研究方法:基于中國1980~2014年三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)造結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)生產(chǎn)函數(shù),采取指數(shù)分析與對數(shù)分析相結(jié)合的方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):2008年以來全要素生產(chǎn)率貢獻(xiàn)縮減是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長大幅減速的最主要因素;要素規(guī)模增長率下降與產(chǎn)出彈性縮減的雙重?cái)D壓導(dǎo)致資本和勞動力規(guī)模貢獻(xiàn)下滑;資本和勞動生產(chǎn)率增長雙減速是造成全要素生產(chǎn)率大幅下降的主導(dǎo)因素;全要素生產(chǎn)率增長動力從以產(chǎn)業(yè)要素生產(chǎn)率的提升為主轉(zhuǎn)向以產(chǎn)業(yè)之間要素配置結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化為主。研究創(chuàng)新:從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的要素規(guī)模和效率進(jìn)行考察,三個層次層層推進(jìn),為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動力及其變遷軌跡分析創(chuàng)造更加廣闊的拓展空間。研究價(jià)值:揭示了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長變遷的動因結(jié)構(gòu)以及最新轉(zhuǎn)換趨勢,為旨在推動國民經(jīng)濟(jì)又快又好發(fā)展的政策設(shè)計(jì)提供了新的科學(xué)決策參考。
[Abstract]:Research objective: to explore the structure of economic growth drivers and the trend of transformation. Methods: based on the time series data of three industries in China from 1980 to 2014, the structural index production function was constructed and the empirical study was carried out by combining exponential analysis with logarithmic analysis. It is found that the reduction of total factor productivity contribution is the most important factor in the sharp deceleration of economic growth since 2008, and that the reduction of factor scale growth rate and the reduction of output elasticity lead to the decline of the contribution of capital and labor force. The double deceleration of the growth of capital and labor productivity is the leading factor that causes the sharp decline of the total factor productivity, and the motive force of the total factor productivity growth changes from the promotion of the industrial factor productivity to the optimization of the allocation structure of the factors among industries. Research and innovation: from the factor scale and efficiency of the three industries, the three levels are pushed forward layer by layer, to create a broader expansion space for the analysis of economic growth power and its vicissitude track. Research value: it reveals the driving force structure and the latest transformation trend of China's economic growth, and provides a new scientific decision-making reference for the policy design aimed at promoting the rapid and sound development of the national economy.
【作者單位】： 中國工商銀行麗水分行;
【分類號】：F124;F224

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