本文選題：輕工業(yè) + 房地產(chǎn)投資�。� 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展迅猛,帶動上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)繁榮的同時也對我國GDP的增長產(chǎn)生了很大貢獻,對我國工業(yè)企業(yè)的帶動也不可否認。房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的高速發(fā)展導(dǎo)致很多其他行業(yè)的企業(yè)也紛紛投身地產(chǎn)行業(yè)。2008年世界經(jīng)濟危機的爆發(fā)以及土地、勞動力、資金等要素成本不斷攀升給中國工業(yè)企業(yè)帶來了極大沖擊甚至掀起了一場倒閉潮。而地產(chǎn)行業(yè)卻依然保持著高速發(fā)展,其持續(xù)的高額利潤吸引了來自TCL、格力、美的、海信、紅豆、雅戈爾等諸多其他行業(yè)巨頭的涌入。當前,我國工業(yè)發(fā)展面臨極大挑戰(zhàn),尤其是溫州、東莞等東部地區(qū)中小輕工業(yè)企業(yè)的倒閉潮更是引人深思,人們不禁要問工業(yè)企業(yè)的困境是否與房地產(chǎn)有關(guān)?房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)帶動制造業(yè)發(fā)展的同時是否也給制造業(yè)帶來了擠出效應(yīng)?相對薄弱的輕工業(yè)是否受到了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的沖擊呢?如果存在擠出效應(yīng),其大小是多少?為了研究中國東部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資對輕工業(yè)的擠出效應(yīng),本文選取了我國東部7省1999—2014年的面板數(shù)據(jù)作為回歸模型。其中,房地產(chǎn)投資額占GDP比重作為自變量,輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP比重作為因變量,人均消費、人口、經(jīng)濟增長、出口作為控制變量。根據(jù)中國東部地區(qū)1998年房地產(chǎn)市場化改革之后的房地產(chǎn)投資額和輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)值分別占GDP的比重,通過構(gòu)建面板數(shù)據(jù)模型證明了二者之間確實存在顯著的負相關(guān)關(guān)系—即存在擠出效應(yīng)。根據(jù)回歸結(jié)果,得出在我國東部,房地產(chǎn)投資對于輕工業(yè)的影響系數(shù)大約為-0.2。這個結(jié)果表明:當前階段在我國東部地區(qū)確實存在房地產(chǎn)投資對輕工業(yè)的擠出效應(yīng),每1%的房地產(chǎn)投資額占GDP比重的增加會導(dǎo)致接近0.2%的輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP比重減少。基于以上研究分析,本文提出以下幾點政策建議:1.當?shù)卣畱?yīng)該要警惕房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)所帶來的擠出效應(yīng),正確出臺措施打擊房地產(chǎn)市場中的炒房團、投機者,制定差異化的房貸政策,抑制土地市場的過度繁榮。2.國家和地方政府應(yīng)該考察和衡量區(qū)域內(nèi)未來是否適合發(fā)展輕工業(yè),如果適合,在發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和輕工業(yè)時應(yīng)該充分考慮到當?shù)剌p工業(yè)發(fā)展水平以及受房地產(chǎn)投資擠出效應(yīng)的大小,協(xié)調(diào)地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和輕工業(yè)發(fā)展,控制房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的過度發(fā)展。如果不適合也應(yīng)該考慮產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的方式及成本。3.要根據(jù)當?shù)匦袠I(yè)發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟依存度具體情況的不同具體問題具體分析,制定符合地區(qū)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的行業(yè)相關(guān)政策,加強房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的時效性和針對性。4.金融危機過后,由于中國輕工業(yè)普遍是勞動密集型,技術(shù)含量、利潤率水平相對較低,而勞動力和土地要素價格的不斷增加,使得輕工業(yè)的發(fā)展更需要國家給予一定的政策扶持,不能因為房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和土地市場當前的高額利潤而忽視輕工業(yè)的重要性。5.優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)布局和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,因地制宜發(fā)展當?shù)剌p工業(yè),促進產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,加大對職業(yè)教育的投入,加強企業(yè)與研發(fā)機構(gòu)的合作,以科技創(chuàng)新盤活傳統(tǒng)輕工業(yè),促使制造大國向制造強國轉(zhuǎn)型。6.正確制定和合理調(diào)整相應(yīng)金融政策,引導(dǎo)其支持中小輕工業(yè)企業(yè)的發(fā)展。加快中小輕工業(yè)企業(yè)信用政策的完善和推進,促進金融機構(gòu)與中小輕工業(yè)企業(yè)之間普惠金融體系和擔保體系的建立。構(gòu)建較為完善的,能夠為中小輕工業(yè)企業(yè)提供金融服務(wù)的資本市場。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of China's real estate market has contributed to the growth of the upstream and downstream industries and contributed greatly to the growth of China's GDP. The rapid development of the industrial enterprises in China has led to the rapid development of the real estate enterprises in many other industries as a result of the outbreak of the world economic crisis in the real estate industry in the.2008 year. And the rising cost of land, labor, capital and other factors has brought great impact and even a collapse in Chinese industrial enterprises. But the real estate industry continues to develop rapidly, and its continuous high profit attracts the influx of many other industry giants, such as TCL, GREE, America, Hisense, red bean, YOUNGOR and so on. China's industrial development is facing great challenges, especially in Wenzhou, Dongguan and other eastern regions, the collapse of small and medium light industrial enterprises is more thought-provoking. People can not help asking whether the plight of industrial enterprises is related to real estate? Whether the real estate industry leads to the development of manufacturing industry has also brought the extrusion effect to the manufacturing industry? Relatively weak light industry What is the impact of the real estate industry? If there is an extrude effect, how much is it? In order to study the effect of real estate investment on light industry in eastern China, this paper selects the panel data from 7 provinces in eastern China from 1999 to 2014 as a regression model. In this case, real estate investment accounts for the proportion of GDP as an independent variable. Industrial output value accounts for the proportion of GDP as the dependent variable, per capita consumption, population, economic growth and export as control variables. According to the proportion of real estate investment and light industrial output value of GDP in eastern China in 1998, real estate investment and light industrial output value respectively. By building panel data model, it is proved that there is a significant negative phase between the two. In the eastern part of China, the impact coefficient of real estate investment on light industry is about -0.2.. The result shows that there is real estate investment effect on light industry in the eastern part of China, and the increase of the proportion of 1% real estate investment in GDP will lead to the increase of the proportion of real estate investment in the eastern part of China. Close to 0.2% of the light industrial output value of GDP is reduced. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: 1. the local government should be vigilant about the extrude effect brought by the real estate industry, correct the measures to crack down the real estate market, the speculators, the differential housing policy, and the suppression of the land market. .2. countries and local governments should examine and measure the suitability of the future for the development of light industry in the region. If suitable, the development of the real estate industry and light industry should take full account of the local light industry development level and the size of the real estate investment extrusion effect, coordinate the development of the real estate industry and light industry and control the real estate industry The overdevelopment of industry. If it is not suitable, the mode and cost of industrial transfer should be considered and the.3. should be analyzed in accordance with the specific problems of the local industry development and economic dependence, and formulate relevant policies to coordinate the development of the region, strengthen the timeliness of the real estate regulation and the targeted.4. financial crisis, because China's light industry is generally labor intensive, technology content and profit margin are relatively low, and the constant increase in the price of labor and land makes the development of light industry more needed by the state to give certain policy support, and the importance of.5. optimization can not be ignored because of the current high profit of the real estate industry and the land market and the importance of neglecting the importance of light industry. Industrial layout and structural adjustment, local light industry to develop local light industry, promote industrial upgrading, increase investment in vocational education, strengthen cooperation between enterprises and R & D institutions, invigorating traditional light industry with scientific and technological innovation, promoting the manufacturing power to transform.6. to manufacturing power correctly and rationally adjusting the corresponding financial policy, guiding it to support medium and small light light. The development of industrial enterprises, accelerating the improvement and promotion of the credit policy of small and medium light industrial enterprises, and promoting the establishment of the inclusive financial system and guarantee system between the financial institutions and the small and medium light industrial enterprises, and building a more perfect capital market for providing financial services for small and medium light industrial enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;F426.8

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