發(fā)布時間：2018-06-15 20:41

  本文選題：房價(jià)增長率 + 消費(fèi)者住房偏好�。� 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來熱點(diǎn)城市房價(jià)漲幅巨大,消費(fèi)者購房壓力不斷增加,因此“高房價(jià)”成為公眾熱議的話題。2016年12月召開的中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會議提出“房子是用來住的,不是用來炒的”。為遏制房價(jià)過快上漲,抑制消費(fèi)者的住房投機(jī)性需求,近幾年政府陸續(xù)采取了一系列措施調(diào)控樓市,但調(diào)控效果甚微。國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對我國房價(jià)上漲的影響因素研究較多,主要集中于地價(jià)以及其它宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量對房價(jià)的影響研究,而對消費(fèi)者的微觀購房行為和地方政府對房價(jià)的調(diào)控關(guān)注較少。在此背景下,本文就消費(fèi)者住房偏好和政府調(diào)控壓力對房價(jià)增長的影響進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的理論分析和實(shí)證研究。從理論上,本文構(gòu)建了住房需求函數(shù)和住房供給函數(shù)。一方面,本文借鑒柯布-道格拉斯效用函數(shù)構(gòu)造消費(fèi)者住房偏好變量,進(jìn)而構(gòu)建文章的住房需求函數(shù),研究消費(fèi)者住房偏好對房價(jià)的影響。另一方面,地方政府作為土地供給的壟斷者,可能為了提高當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)增長等目的提高房價(jià),但同時房價(jià)的快速上漲,無論從中央政府層面還是老百姓滿意度層面都給地方政府帶來了抑制房價(jià)過度上漲的壓力。本文從地方政府調(diào)控房價(jià)的角度構(gòu)造了政府調(diào)控壓力變量,進(jìn)而構(gòu)建住房供給函數(shù)。通過住房需求和住房供給之間的均衡,本文就消費(fèi)者住房偏好和政府調(diào)控壓力這兩個變量對房價(jià)增長的影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。從實(shí)證上,本文選取2005—2015年的35個大中城市房價(jià)作為研究對象,考察樣本城市中消費(fèi)者住房偏好和政府調(diào)控壓力對房價(jià)增長的影響。通過實(shí)證研究可以發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)消費(fèi)者住房偏好增大會導(dǎo)致房價(jià)漲幅增大,而政府調(diào)控壓力的增大在一定程度上抑制了房價(jià)的過快上漲。(2)政府調(diào)控壓力和消費(fèi)者住房偏好對房價(jià)增長存在顯著的影響,且在東部,中部和西部三個地區(qū)差異十分明顯。(3)本文將樣本城市依據(jù)政府調(diào)控壓力大小分組進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)只有在政府調(diào)控壓力大的組中,消費(fèi)者住房偏好顯著地影響房價(jià)增長,而且政府調(diào)控壓力大的組中消費(fèi)者住房偏好變量參數(shù)值也較大,即在政府調(diào)控壓力大的城市,消費(fèi)者住房偏好對房價(jià)增長的影響更大。(4)消費(fèi)者者住房偏好和政府土地供給存在顯著的負(fù)向關(guān)系,即地方政府很可能會隨著消費(fèi)者住房偏好的增強(qiáng)而減少土地供應(yīng)量。本文建議,政府應(yīng)合理地引導(dǎo)消費(fèi)者的住房需求,調(diào)整各產(chǎn)業(yè)的良性發(fā)展,使房價(jià)回歸理性增長水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, housing prices in hot cities have gone up dramatically, and the pressure on consumers to buy homes has been increasing, so "high house prices" have become a hot topic among the public. A central economic work conference held in December 2016 suggested that "houses are for living, not for speculation." In recent years, the government has taken a series of measures to control the property market, but it has little effect. Scholars at home and abroad have a lot of research on the influencing factors of the rise of house prices in China, mainly focusing on the land price and other macroeconomic variables on the impact of housing prices, but the micro-purchase behavior of consumers and the regulation and control of housing prices by local governments are less concerned. In this context, this paper makes a systematic theoretical analysis and empirical research on the impact of consumer housing preferences and government regulatory pressures on housing price growth. Theoretically, this paper constructs housing demand function and housing supply function. On the one hand, this paper uses Cobb-Douglas utility function to construct the consumer housing preference variable, and then constructs the housing demand function of this paper to study the impact of consumer housing preference on housing prices. On the other hand, local governments, as monopolists of land supply, may raise house prices in order to increase local economic growth, etc., but at the same time, housing prices are rising rapidly. Whether from the central government level or the satisfaction level of ordinary people, local governments have brought pressure to curb the excessive rise in house prices. This paper constructs the pressure variable of government regulation from the angle of local government regulating house price, and then constructs the housing supply function. Through the balance between housing demand and housing supply, this paper makes an empirical study on the impact of consumer housing preference and government regulatory pressure on housing price growth. From the empirical point of view, this paper selects 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2005 to 2015 as the research object, and investigates the influence of consumer housing preference and government regulation pressure on the housing price growth in the sample cities. Through empirical research, we can find that the increase in consumer housing preferences will lead to an increase in house prices. However, the increase of government regulation pressure to a certain extent has restrained the excessive rise in house prices. (2) Government regulation pressures and consumer housing preferences have a significant impact on house price growth, and in the east, In this paper, the sample cities are grouped according to the size of the government control pressure. It is found that consumer housing preference significantly affects the housing price growth only in the groups under the heavy government control pressure. Moreover, the parameter values of consumer housing preference variables in groups under heavy government regulation and control pressure are also larger, that is, in cities where government regulation pressure is high, (4) there is a significant negative relationship between consumer housing preference and government land supply, that is, local government may reduce land supply with the increase of consumer housing preference. This paper suggests that the government should reasonably guide the consumer's housing demand, adjust the benign development of various industries, and make the house prices return to the level of rational growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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