本文選題：限購政策取消 + 倍差法�。� 參考：《華中師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：大量研究表明,在住房限購政策的調(diào)節(jié)下,房價似乎越調(diào)越漲,在房價上漲的背景下,地王頻現(xiàn),加上一些地方政府對土地財政的嚴(yán)重依賴以及大規(guī)模的推進城鎮(zhèn)化,造城運動在不少地方如火如荼地展開,房地產(chǎn)供給過剩。到2014年下半年,政府的調(diào)控重點由“控房價”轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤叭齑妗�。�?014年9月開始,限購政策接連取消,到2016年6月,除一線城市外,46個限購城市均放松了購房限制。但是這一放松對于扭轉(zhuǎn)樓市局面、促進樓市回暖是否具有一定的作用呢?其作用效果是否具有持續(xù)性或滯后性呢?本文將對此做出研究分析。本文通過考察限購政策取消對住房成交量當(dāng)期及滯后期的影響,來檢驗政策是否可以去庫存。另外,政策取消后是否會使房價大幅度上揚也是本文研究的重點,因此,本文也研究了政策取消后,房價的變化趨勢。因為不同地域房地產(chǎn)市場具有差異性,因此在整體分析后做了分區(qū)檢驗,以研究政策的分區(qū)效果。本文通過選用我國2012年至2015年間62個大中城市商品住房市場的季度數(shù)據(jù),運用傾向得分匹配倍差法研究了取消住房限購政策對住房量價的影響。研究結(jié)論有如下三點:第一,取消住房限購政策能夠推動城市住房成交量上漲,對解決我國的房地產(chǎn)庫存問題具有一定的積極作用,但其作用效果持續(xù)時間短;第二,短期內(nèi),政策對房價的影響并不明顯,但在2015年第四季度,在政策的影響下房價上漲0.02%,東部城市房價更是上漲1.57%;第三,政策能夠在短期內(nèi)有效推動?xùn)|部地區(qū)城市的住房成交量,但對庫存問題更嚴(yán)重的中西部地區(qū)卻無明顯效果,造成了政策影響的“地區(qū)不均衡”及“效果不匹配”。
[Abstract]:A large number of studies have shown that, under the regulation of the housing purchase restriction policy, housing prices seem to be rising more and more. Against the background of rising house prices, land kings frequently appear, coupled with the heavy dependence of some local governments on land finance and the large-scale promotion of urbanization. City building movement in many places in full swing, real estate supply surplus. By the second half of 2014, the government's focus had shifted from "controlling house prices" to "destocking." Since September 2014, the restrictions have been scrapped, and by June 2016, 46 restricted cities, except for first-tier cities, had relaxed their restrictions on home purchases. But this relaxation to reverse the situation in the property market, to promote the property market has a certain role to warm up? Does its effect have persistence or lag? This article will make the research and analysis to this. This paper examines whether the policy can go to inventory by investigating the impact of the cancellation of the purchase restriction policy on the current and late housing turnover. In addition, whether the policy cancels will make the house price rise greatly is also the focus of this paper. Therefore, this paper also studies the change trend of the house price after the policy cancellation. Because the real estate market is different in different regions, it makes a zoning test after the whole analysis to study the effect of the policy. Based on the quarterly data of commodity housing market in 62 large and medium-sized cities from 2012 to 2015, this paper studies the effect of canceling the policy of limiting purchase of housing on the price of housing quantity by using the method of tendency score matching double difference. The conclusions of the study are as follows: first, canceling the policy of limiting the purchase of housing can promote the increase of urban housing turnover, which has a certain positive effect to solve the real estate inventory problem in China, but its effect is short; second, in the short term, The impact of the policy on house prices is not obvious, but in the fourth quarter of 2015, under the influence of the policy, house prices rose 0.02 percent, and in eastern cities, housing prices rose 1.57. Third, policies can effectively promote housing turnover in cities in the eastern region in the short term. However, there is no obvious effect on the central and western regions where the inventory problem is more serious, which results in the "regional imbalance" and "effect mismatch" affected by the policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：2003691