本文選題：城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展 + 經濟增長　； 參考：《安徽工業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：進入21世紀,中國經濟快速增長與城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展不協(xié)調并存的局面引起了政界和學術界的廣泛關注。城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展失衡的格局不僅限制了農村社會經濟的發(fā)展,農業(yè)和農村的落后也將嚴重制約著工業(yè)、城市乃至整個國民經濟的長期性發(fā)展。在此背景下,調整城鄉(xiāng)關系,打破城鄉(xiāng)失衡格局,在保障經濟健康、穩(wěn)定增長的同時縮小城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展差距,是中國當前乃至今后一段時期內發(fā)展的主旋律。然而,城與鄉(xiāng)的發(fā)展差距有多大?城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展關系的構建是否更有利于經濟持續(xù)增長?地域差異是否又決定城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調程度及其經濟效應不同?當前安徽省整體經濟發(fā)展水平及城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展水平遠低于發(fā)達地區(qū),區(qū)域內部城鄉(xiāng)差距也持續(xù)擴大。鑒于此,本文以安徽省為例測算了各地區(qū)城鄉(xiāng)綜合發(fā)展水平和城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展水平,并在此基礎上對其經濟增長效應進行對比分析,以期找出適合安徽省城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展的路徑。為準確區(qū)分城鄉(xiāng)高水平均衡發(fā)展與低水平均衡發(fā)展的差別,本文從系統(tǒng)科學角度出發(fā),基于城鎮(zhèn)與農村兩個子系統(tǒng)構建了全面衡量城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展水平的指標體系,并分別從時序和空間兩個維度對安徽省各地區(qū)的城鄉(xiāng)綜合發(fā)展水平及城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展水平進行定量分析。測算結果表明,城鎮(zhèn)群內部及農村群內部的綜合發(fā)展水平差距逐漸拉大,且城鎮(zhèn)群的表現(xiàn)尤為明顯;各市城鄉(xiāng)綜合發(fā)展水平差別較大,既有城鄉(xiāng)均衡發(fā)展水平較高的城市,也有城鄉(xiāng)均衡發(fā)展階段低水平的城市,甚至還出現(xiàn)了城鄉(xiāng)極化發(fā)展的城市;各市城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展水平整體不高且空間差異顯著,但總體趨好呈現(xiàn)梯度遞增變化;城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調分項指標處于上升趨勢,協(xié)調發(fā)展程度由高到低依次為生態(tài)建設、人口結構、居民生活、經濟發(fā)展和社會服務。根據前文研究,再分別構建以城鎮(zhèn)綜合發(fā)展水平、農村綜合發(fā)展水平和城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展水平為解釋變量的經濟增長模型,綜合采用靜態(tài)面板回歸模型、動態(tài)面板回歸模型以及面板門限回歸模型進行實證分析。結果顯示,城鎮(zhèn)綜合發(fā)展水平、農村綜合發(fā)展水平和城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展水平對經濟增長的影響均顯著為正,但城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展的經濟增長效應要明顯大于城鄉(xiāng)各自獨立發(fā)展的經濟增長效應;進一步探究發(fā)現(xiàn),城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展水平對經濟增長的影響具有非線性的雙重門限特征,表現(xiàn)為中協(xié)調發(fā)展水平區(qū)間的經濟增長效應高于高協(xié)調發(fā)展水平區(qū)間和低協(xié)調發(fā)展水平區(qū)間的經濟增長效應。因此,本文的研究結論為城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略實施提供了強有力的理論支撐,同時建議要以經濟發(fā)展和社會服務為重點方向、采取差別化政策分類推進城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, the rapid economic growth and the incoordination of urban and rural development in China have aroused the widespread concern of political and academic circles. The imbalance of urban and rural development not only limits the development of rural social economy, but also restricts the long-term development of industry, city and even the whole national economy. In this context, adjusting the relationship between urban and rural areas, breaking the pattern of imbalance between urban and rural areas, and narrowing the gap between urban and rural development while ensuring the healthy and stable growth of the economy are the main melody of the development of China at present and in a period of time to come. However, how big is the gap between urban and rural development? Is the construction of harmonious development relationship between urban and rural areas more conducive to sustained economic growth? Does regional difference determine the degree of urban-rural coordination and its economic effects? At present, the overall level of economic development and the level of urban and rural development in Anhui Province are far lower than those in developed regions, and the gap between urban and rural areas within the region continues to expand. In view of this, this paper takes Anhui Province as an example to calculate the comprehensive development level of urban and rural areas and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and on the basis of this comparative analysis of its economic growth effect, in order to find out the path suitable for the development of urban and rural areas in Anhui Province. In order to accurately distinguish the difference between urban and rural high level balanced development and low level balanced development, this paper sets up an index system to measure the level of urban and rural coordinated development based on the two subsystems of urban and rural from the perspective of system science. The comprehensive level of urban and rural development and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas in Anhui Province are analyzed quantitatively from two dimensions of time series and space. The results show that the gap between the level of comprehensive development within urban groups and rural groups is gradually widening, and the performance of urban and rural groups is particularly obvious, the level of urban and rural comprehensive development varies greatly, and there is a higher level of urban and rural balanced development of cities. There are also cities with low level of balanced development in urban and rural areas, and even cities with urban and rural polarization; the overall level of coordinated development between urban and rural areas is not high and the spatial differences are significant, but the overall trend of development is gradually increasing. The sub-index of coordination between urban and rural areas is on the rise. The order of coordinated development from high to low is ecological construction, population structure, residents' life, economic development and social services. According to the previous research, the economic growth model with the level of urban comprehensive development, the level of rural comprehensive development and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas as the explanatory variables are constructed respectively, and the static panel regression model is adopted synthetically. Dynamic panel regression model and panel threshold regression model are analyzed empirically. The results show that the comprehensive development level of cities and towns, the comprehensive development level of rural areas and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas have significantly positive effects on economic growth. However, the economic growth effect of coordinated development of urban and rural areas is obviously greater than that of independent development of urban and rural areas, and it is found that the influence of coordinated development level of urban and rural areas on economic growth has nonlinear double threshold characteristics. The economic growth effect of the middle coordinated development level is higher than that of the high coordinated development level and the low coordinated development level. Therefore, the conclusion of this paper provides a strong theoretical support for the implementation of urban-rural coordinated development strategy. At the same time, it is suggested that we should take economic development and social services as the key direction and adopt differentiated policies to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.
【學位授予單位】：安徽工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.27;F327

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