本文選題：交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資 + 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展　； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：本文試圖回答的主要問(wèn)題是:在處于不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段的區(qū)域中,交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用是否存在差異,什么原因?qū)е铝诉@種差異的產(chǎn)生?對(duì)這一問(wèn)題的研究有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,對(duì)我國(guó)各地區(qū)交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)劃和建設(shè)工作具有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。學(xué)者們長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直非常關(guān)注交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用,然而對(duì)促進(jìn)作用階段性差異的研究尚顯不足。從亞當(dāng)·斯密的《國(guó)富論》到保羅·克魯格曼開創(chuàng)的新經(jīng)濟(jì)地理學(xué)都在關(guān)心交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系問(wèn)題。自從Aschauer (1989)將公共投資從總資本中分離出來(lái),作為一個(gè)獨(dú)立變量引入新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的總產(chǎn)出函數(shù)并進(jìn)行計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析之后,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者在交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用問(wèn)題上進(jìn)行了大量研究。其中一些研究已經(jīng)注意到,在不同區(qū)域及其不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段,交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用存在著差異。然而,已有研究對(duì)這一問(wèn)題進(jìn)行的深入分析還比較少,有必要進(jìn)行更細(xì)致的探討。為了深入分析交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的階段性差異,論文基于楊小凱的新興古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析范式,在區(qū)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力理論和分工理論的基礎(chǔ)上,首先探討了交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)作用階段性差異的形成原因和影響因素。之后,為了對(duì)我國(guó)各省交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的階段性差異進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),論文又在區(qū)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力理論指導(dǎo)下,借鑒已有研究對(duì)中國(guó)各省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段的劃分方法,構(gòu)建了劃分中國(guó)省域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段的指標(biāo)體系,并利用主成分分析方法,對(duì)中國(guó)各省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段進(jìn)行了測(cè)度。最后,基于各省所處的不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段,建立了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,從規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)變化兩個(gè)角度對(duì)交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的階段性差異進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。通過(guò)理論分析發(fā)現(xiàn),交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用會(huì)受到經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模、交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施存量和其他投資回報(bào)率等因素的影響。其與經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模和分工水平正相關(guān),與交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施存量負(fù)關(guān)系,與其他投資之間存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性和替代性。交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資投資之外的其他投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)回報(bào)越高,交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本越高,交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用會(huì)越低。反之,當(dāng)交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施設(shè)施建設(shè)投資之外其他投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)回報(bào)率較低時(shí),交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相對(duì)貢獻(xiàn)便得以凸顯,交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用可以得到增強(qiáng)。隨著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段的演進(jìn),交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用呈倒U型變化趨勢(shì)。當(dāng)區(qū)域處于要素導(dǎo)向階段時(shí),交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用處于中等水平;當(dāng)區(qū)域進(jìn)入投資導(dǎo)向階段時(shí),交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用明顯提高;到轉(zhuǎn)型階段時(shí),交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用趨于下降;到創(chuàng)新導(dǎo)向階段時(shí),交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用則比較微弱。不同運(yùn)輸方式和技術(shù)等級(jí)的交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)分工和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響不同。低等級(jí)公路投資有利于區(qū)域內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)分工,鐵路和高等級(jí)公路投資有利于區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)分工。在處于要素導(dǎo)向階段的區(qū)域中,鐵路和高速公路投資對(duì)比較優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)的促進(jìn)作用高于投資導(dǎo)向階段和轉(zhuǎn)型階段的區(qū)域,低等級(jí)公路投資對(duì)非比較優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)的促進(jìn)作用低于轉(zhuǎn)型階段的區(qū)域。從交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響角度看,鐵路投資對(duì)創(chuàng)新導(dǎo)向階段和轉(zhuǎn)型階段區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用更強(qiáng)。低等級(jí)公路投資對(duì)投資導(dǎo)向階段和要素導(dǎo)向階段區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用更強(qiáng)。論文的核心創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于探討了交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)作用的推算方法、影響因素及其階段性差異。論文將波特的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段理論和分工理論結(jié)合起來(lái),用分工結(jié)構(gòu)演化解釋區(qū)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的階段性變化。同時(shí),將交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和其他產(chǎn)業(yè)投資的替代關(guān)系引入了新興古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型。在此基礎(chǔ)上,論文在替代性視角下討論了交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的最優(yōu)規(guī)模問(wèn)題,并在交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的最優(yōu)規(guī)模基礎(chǔ)上提出交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)作用的計(jì)算方法。論文還對(duì)不同分工結(jié)構(gòu)條件下,交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)作用的影響因素進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬分析,探討了交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)作用表現(xiàn)出階段性差異的理論原因。論文基于波特的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段理論構(gòu)建指標(biāo)體系對(duì)中國(guó)各省所處的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段進(jìn)行劃分,并建立計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型對(duì)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段的省份交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施資本存量的產(chǎn)出彈性進(jìn)行了估計(jì),進(jìn)而推算出了中國(guó)各省交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用,證明了交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)作用階段性差異的存在,也構(gòu)成了本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:The main questions of this article are as follows: in the areas of different economic development stages, whether there is a difference in the promotion of the investment of transportation infrastructure to the economic growth, what is the cause of this difference? The transportation infrastructure planning and construction work in various regions of China has a certain guiding significance. Scholars have long been paying great attention to the role of transportation infrastructure investment in promoting regional economic growth. However, the research on the phase difference of promoting the role of transportation is still insufficient. From Adam J's "Guo Fu" to Paul Krugman The new economic geography is concerned about the relationship between the traffic infrastructure and regional economic growth. Since Aschauer (1989) separates the public investment from the total capital, as an independent variable introducing the total output function of the neoclassical economics and econometric analysis, the domestic and foreign scholars invest in the transportation infrastructure. A large number of studies have been carried out on the promotion of economic growth. Some of these studies have noticed that there are differences in the promotion of the investment of traffic infrastructure on economic growth in different regions and stages of economic development. However, the in-depth analysis of this problem is still relatively small and it is necessary to carry out more detailed analysis. On the basis of Yang Xiaokai's new classical economics analysis paradigm, this paper, based on the theory of regional competitiveness and the theory of division of labor, first discusses the stage differences in promoting the growth of regional economic growth on the basis of the theory of regional competitiveness and the division of labor theory. In order to make an empirical test on the phase difference of the regional economic growth in China's provincial transportation infrastructure investment, the paper, under the guidance of the regional competitiveness theory, drew on the division method of the economic development stage of China's provinces and constructed the division of the economic development stage in China. The index system and the method of principal component analysis are used to measure the economic development stage of China's provinces. Finally, based on the different economic development stages of each province, the econometric model is set up. From the two angles of scale and structure change, the phase difference between the investment of infrastructure investment to promote economic growth is empirically analyzed. Through theoretical analysis, it is found that the promotion of traffic infrastructure investment on economic growth will be influenced by economic scale, the stock of transportation infrastructure and other factors of return on investment. It is positively related to the scale of economy and the level of division of labor, and has a negative relationship with the stock of traffic infrastructure, and there is a competitive and alternative relationship with other investment. The higher the economic returns of other investment in transportation infrastructure investment, the higher the economic cost of investment in transportation infrastructure, the lower the promotion of investment in infrastructure investment to economic growth. Conversely, the investment of transportation infrastructure investment is low when the investment of other investment is lower than the investment of infrastructure facilities. The relative contribution of the economic growth to the economic growth can be highlighted, and the promotion of the infrastructure investment to the economic growth can be enhanced. With the evolution of the regional economic development stage, the promotion of the transportation infrastructure investment to the economic growth is inverted U trend. When the region is in the factor oriented stage, the investment of the transportation infrastructure is invested. The promotion role of the regional economic growth is at the middle level; when the region enters the investment oriented stage, the investment of transportation infrastructure investment promotes the economic growth obviously; in the transition stage, the promotion role of transportation infrastructure investment to economic growth tends to decrease; to the innovation oriented stage, the investment of transportation infrastructure investment is The effect of economic growth is relatively weak. The impact of transportation infrastructure investment with different transport modes and technical levels on regional industrial division of labor and economic growth is different. Low grade highway investment is beneficial to industrial division of labor within the region. The investment of railway and high grade highway is beneficial to inter regional industrial division of labor. In the region, the promotion of the investment of railway and highway to the comparative advantage industry is higher than that in the investment oriented and transition stages. The promotion of low grade highway investment to the non comparative advantage industry is lower than that in the transition stage. The promotion of economic growth in the innovation oriented and transition stages is stronger. Low grade highway investment has a stronger role in promoting economic growth in the investment oriented stage and the factor oriented stage. The core innovation of this paper is to discuss the calculation method of the promotion effect of transportation infrastructure investment to regional economic growth. In this paper, the thesis combines Potter's theory of regional economic development and division of labor theory and the division of labor structure to explain the stage changes of regional competitiveness. At the same time, the alternative relationship between the investment of transportation infrastructure and other industrial investment is introduced into the new classical economics model. On this basis, the thesis is on the basis of this paper. The optimal scale of investment in traffic infrastructure is discussed in the alternative perspective, and a calculation method for the promotion of transportation infrastructure investment to economic growth is put forward on the basis of the optimal scale of transportation infrastructure investment. The influence factors are analyzed by numerical simulation, and the theoretical reasons for the stage difference between the investment of traffic infrastructure investment and the promotion of economic growth are discussed. Based on the theory of Potter's economic development stage, the thesis divides the economic development stage of China's provinces and establishes the econometric model for different classics. The output elasticity of the capital stock of the provincial traffic infrastructure in the economic development stage is estimated, and then the promotion effect of the transportation infrastructure investment on the economic growth in all provinces of China has been calculated, which proves the existence of the phase difference in the promotion of the transportation infrastructure investment to the economic growth, and also constitutes the innovation point of this article.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F124;F512.3

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