本文選題：元胞自動機(CA) + 城鎮(zhèn)化��； 參考：《中山大學學報(自然科學版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：引入邏輯回歸CA模型挖掘城市發(fā)展的轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則,模擬/預(yù)測了佛山市的城鎮(zhèn)擴張,并采用轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和景觀指數(shù)等方法分析城鎮(zhèn)化過程。結(jié)果表明佛山的城鎮(zhèn)化過程侵占了大量的農(nóng)田、森林和其它(包括果園和池塘等)用地類型。運用CA進行模擬,其總精度和Kappa系數(shù)可達到93.7%和0.86。通過景觀指數(shù)分析,佛山城市發(fā)展將會更為聚集,其最大班塊指數(shù)增大。在城市優(yōu)先發(fā)展情景下,到2020年將有191 km~2農(nóng)田將轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槌鞘杏玫?占所有農(nóng)田(706 km~2)的27%。在保護農(nóng)田和保護綠地的情景下,農(nóng)田和綠地可以到較好的保護,但是它將會占用其它土地類型以滿足城市擴張的需要。通過分析空間變量和城市用地的關(guān)系發(fā)現(xiàn),各個空間變量對城鎮(zhèn)化的廊道作用顯著。
[Abstract]:The transformation rules of urban development are excavated by introducing the logical regression CA model, and the urban expansion in Foshan is simulated / forecasted, and the urbanization process is analyzed by means of transfer matrix and landscape index. The results show that the urbanization process of Foshan occupies a large number of farmland, forests and other land types (including orchards and ponds). The total accuracy and Kappa coefficient of CA are 93. 7% and 0. 86% respectively. Through landscape index analysis, Foshan city development will be more concentrated, its largest block index increases. Under the priority urban development scenario, 191 km~2 farmland will be converted into urban land by 2020, accounting for 27% of all farmland (706 km2). In the situation of protecting farmland and protecting green land, farmland and green land can be protected better, but it will occupy other land types to meet the needs of urban expansion. By analyzing the relationship between spatial variables and urban land use, it is found that each spatial variable plays a significant role in urbanization corridor.
【作者單位】： 廣東財經(jīng)大學地理與旅游學院;中山大學地理科學與規(guī)劃學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金(41531176,41371376) 國家社會科學基金(14BRK017)
【分類號】：F299.27;TP301.1
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本文編號：1928788