本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展 + 生態(tài)環(huán)境��； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的強(qiáng)大支持動(dòng)力,這一觀(guān)點(diǎn)在學(xué)術(shù)界已經(jīng)得到論證。在過(guò)去30多年,“高投入、高消耗、高增長(zhǎng)、高排放、高污染”的發(fā)展模式雖然顯著推進(jìn)了我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展進(jìn)程,但這種粗放型的發(fā)展道路給生態(tài)環(huán)境也帶來(lái)了沉重的負(fù)擔(dān),我國(guó)正面臨著資源約束趨緊、環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)退化的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)。因此,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的質(zhì)量和生態(tài)環(huán)境逐漸成為學(xué)者和政策制定者關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的前提是保持良好的生態(tài)環(huán)境,因此現(xiàn)階段深入研究?jī)烧咧g的影響機(jī)制,有助于未來(lái)走出一條可持續(xù)的發(fā)展道路,同時(shí)將給我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供有益的參考,也具有一定的理論價(jià)值和實(shí)踐意義。本文首先在借鑒以往學(xué)者相關(guān)理論和研究方法的基礎(chǔ)上,以國(guó)際學(xué)術(shù)界較為流行的PSR框架為基礎(chǔ),應(yīng)用因子分析法合成了我國(guó)生態(tài)環(huán)境綜合指數(shù),并以此分析歷史發(fā)展?fàn)顩r。分析表明,我國(guó)的生態(tài)環(huán)境綜合指數(shù)總體上呈現(xiàn)逐年增長(zhǎng)的走勢(shì),經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài)之后增速趨緩。其次,本文的實(shí)證分析選取了城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中人口城鎮(zhèn)化、經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化,分別代表總體發(fā)展速度和質(zhì)量,建立TVP-VAR模型分析人口城鎮(zhèn)化、經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化和生態(tài)環(huán)境之間的時(shí)變特征。研究結(jié)果表明:人口城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境可以產(chǎn)生積極的作用,即根據(jù)目前所處的狀態(tài),人口向城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移將減少生態(tài)環(huán)境的負(fù)荷;另一方面,經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化卻對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期的負(fù)面影響,不利于人類(lèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)和生活的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。進(jìn)一步,本文結(jié)合中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行分析,得出中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境的最終動(dòng)態(tài)影響是兩者的合力作用,且在不同時(shí)期有不同的表現(xiàn)形式:經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)之前表現(xiàn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位;國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩后,經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化所導(dǎo)致的負(fù)面影響呈現(xiàn)減小的趨勢(shì)。第三,基于上述研究結(jié)論,本文提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議:調(diào)整我國(guó)現(xiàn)有的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí),形成污染防治與環(huán)保技術(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)并舉的綜合治理體系;同時(shí)戶(hù)籍制度改革工作仍然是城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的重點(diǎn),未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展要力圖在城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展過(guò)程中實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境保護(hù)的雙贏。本文的研究特點(diǎn)在于:一方面,本文充分考慮了生態(tài)環(huán)境這一指標(biāo)的內(nèi)涵,合成生態(tài)環(huán)境指數(shù),較為全面準(zhǔn)確地衡量我國(guó)生態(tài)環(huán)境的綜合發(fā)展水平;另一方面,鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)變量聯(lián)動(dòng)作用的動(dòng)態(tài)性,本文使用了時(shí)變參數(shù)向量自回歸(TVP-VAR)模型,從人口城鎮(zhèn)化和經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化的雙重視角出發(fā),捕捉城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境影響的時(shí)變特征,并指出二者的合力作用最終決定了城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境的影響。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is a powerful support for economic growth, this view has been demonstrated in academia. In the past 30 years or so, the development model of "high input, high consumption, high growth, high emission and high pollution" has significantly promoted the development process of urbanization in China, but this extensive development road has also brought a heavy burden to the ecological environment. Our country is facing the severe situation of resource restriction, environment pollution and ecosystem degradation. Therefore, the quality of urbanization and ecological environment has gradually become the concern of scholars and policy makers. The premise of economic development is to maintain a good ecological environment. Therefore, a thorough study of the mechanism of influence between the two at this stage will help to find a sustainable development path in the future, and at the same time will provide a useful reference for the urbanization and economic development of our country. Also has certain theory value and the practice significance. Based on the relevant theories and research methods of previous scholars, this paper, based on the popular PSR framework in the international academic circles, applies factor analysis method to synthesize the comprehensive index of ecological environment in China, and to analyze the historical development of the index. The analysis shows that the comprehensive index of ecological environment in our country is increasing year by year, and the growth rate of economy has slowed down after entering the new normal. Secondly, the empirical analysis of this paper selects population urbanization, economic urbanization, representing the overall development speed and quality, respectively, and establishes TVP-VAR model to analyze the time-varying characteristics between population urbanization, economic urbanization and ecological environment. The results show that: population urbanization can play a positive role in the ecological environment, that is, according to the current situation, the transfer of population to urban areas will reduce the load of ecological environment; on the other hand, However, economic urbanization has a long-term negative impact on the ecological environment, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of human economy and life. Further, this paper analyzes the actual situation of China's economic development, and concludes that the final dynamic impact of urbanization on the ecological environment is the combined effect of the two. And there are different forms of expression in different periods: before the new normal economy, the economic urbanization occupies the dominant position; after the national economic growth rate slows down, the negative influence caused by the economic urbanization shows a decreasing trend. Third, based on the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions: adjust the existing industrial structure of our country, realize the industrial upgrading, and form a comprehensive management system of pollution prevention and environmental protection technology development; At the same time, the reform of household registration system is still the focus of urbanization development. In the future, economic development should strive to achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and environmental protection in the process of urbanization development. The research features of this paper are as follows: on the one hand, this paper fully considers the connotation of the ecological environment index, synthesizes the ecological environment index, and measures the comprehensive development level of our country's ecological environment more comprehensively and accurately; on the other hand, In view of the dynamic interaction of economic variables, this paper uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive TVP-VARmodel to capture the time-varying characteristics of the impact of urbanization on ecological environment from the dual perspective of population urbanization and economic urbanization. Finally, it is pointed out that the effect of urbanization on ecological environment is determined by their combined effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X22;F299.21

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