本文選題：房價上漲 + 家庭規(guī)模　； 參考：《湘潭大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年我國實施住房制度改革以來,我國房價便開始快速上漲。由于房價增長的速度過快,購房難已經(jīng)成為大眾關(guān)注的熱點話題之一。購置新房與培育下一代均是家庭的兩項重大支出,受預算約束的影響,住房支出的增加不可避免地影響著家庭的生育決策,導致一些家庭不敢生、少生或者晚育,從而降低了生育率,而家庭規(guī)模小型化的主要原因之一就是生育率的下降�；诖�,本文提出了一個合理的猜測:高房價導致家庭規(guī)模小型化。此猜測是否合理?這正是本文所要討論的�；诶碚摲治�,本文利用我國1999-2014年省級面板數(shù)據(jù)研究了房價對家庭規(guī)模的影響。在實證分析中,本文使用靜態(tài)面板模型(固定效應模型、隨機效應模型)、動態(tài)面板模型(系統(tǒng)GMM模型)以及OLS模型等來考察房價對家庭規(guī)模的影響。為了使回歸結(jié)果更具有說服力,本文在以上實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上還進行了以下穩(wěn)健性檢驗:第一,為了解決房價與家庭規(guī)模之間可能存在的反向因果關(guān)系、樣本選擇性偏誤等內(nèi)生性問題,本文以上一年度的人均土地出讓面積和人均土地出讓額作為房價的工具變量;第二,由于本文猜想房價可能通過影響出生率來影響家庭規(guī)模,在此又進行了房價如何影響出生率的實證分析;第三,在上述宏觀數(shù)據(jù)實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文還利用2012年和2013年中國綜合社會調(diào)查(CGSS)數(shù)據(jù),從微觀個人層面探討了房價對家庭規(guī)模的影響。通過理論以及實證的分析,本文得出以下主要結(jié)論:(1)房價上漲是造成家庭規(guī)模小型化的一個重要因素;(2)房價對不同地區(qū)家庭規(guī)模的影響呈現(xiàn)異質(zhì)性:相較于中西部地區(qū),東部地區(qū)的家庭規(guī)模受房價的影響作用更甚。這可能是因為相對于中西部地區(qū),東部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟更加發(fā)達,房價也比較高,從而購房負擔更加沉重;(3)房價與出生率之間存在負相關(guān)關(guān)系,而且出生率與家庭規(guī)模呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,這些均符合我們的猜測;(4)家庭經(jīng)濟狀況的改善可以減弱房價對家庭規(guī)模的影響。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China has implemented housing system reform, China's housing prices began to rise rapidly. Due to the rapid growth of house prices, the difficulty of buying a house has become one of the hot topics concerned by the public. The purchase of new homes and the cultivation of the next generation are two major expenditures of the family. Due to budgetary constraints, the increase in housing expenditure inevitably affects the family's reproductive decisions, leading some families not to have children, to have fewer children or to have children later. This reduces the fertility rate, and one of the main reasons for the miniaturization of family size is the decline in fertility. Based on this, this paper puts forward a reasonable guess: high house prices lead to the family size miniaturization. Is this speculation reasonable? This is exactly what this article will discuss. Based on theoretical analysis, this paper studies the impact of house prices on household size using provincial panel data from 1999 to 2014. In the empirical analysis, we use static panel model (fixed effect model, stochastic effect model), dynamic panel model (system GMM model) and OLS model to investigate the impact of house prices on household size. In order to make the regression results more convincing, this paper also carries out the following robust tests on the basis of the above empirical analysis: first, in order to solve the possible negative causal relationship between house prices and family size, Sample selectivity bias and other endogenous problems, the per capita land transfer area and per capita land transfer amount of the previous year as a tool variable of house prices; second, because this paper hypothesized that housing prices may affect the family size through the birth rate. An empirical analysis of how house prices affect the birth rate is made. Thirdly, based on the above macro-data empirical analysis, this paper also makes use of the 2012 and 2013 China Comprehensive Social Survey (CGSS) data. This paper discusses the impact of house price on family size from the micro-personal level. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following main conclusions: (1) the rise of house prices is an important factor contributing to the miniaturization of household size. (2) the influence of house prices on the size of households in different regions is heterogeneity: compared with the central and western regions, The size of households in the east is more affected by housing prices. This may be because compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region has a more developed economy and higher housing prices. As a result, there is a negative correlation between house prices and birth rates, and there is a positive correlation between birth rates and family size. These are in line with our speculation that improved household economic conditions can reduce the impact of house prices on household size.
【學位授予單位】：湘潭大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1894176