本文選題：房地產(chǎn)投資 + 空間集聚��； 參考：《云南財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國現(xiàn)階段產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構改革的推進以及新型城鎮(zhèn)化的建設,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟中正發(fā)揮越來越重要的作用,并且房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為我國國民經(jīng)濟的支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè)。隨著房價的快速上漲,“近年來住房問題已成為國計民生的核心問題,對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的研究一直以來都是學者研究的熱點話題”�？唆敻衤鼧嫿诵陆�(jīng)濟地理學模型討論了產(chǎn)業(yè)的空間集聚機制,隨后越來越多的學者對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的和產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的空間集聚現(xiàn)象進行了大量研究。一方面,經(jīng)濟的集聚發(fā)展會產(chǎn)生正的外部性,企業(yè)的鄰近發(fā)展會增加空間溢出效應,降低運輸成本和交易成本,促進經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展;另一方面,由于空間有限,產(chǎn)業(yè)的集聚發(fā)展會產(chǎn)生擁擠效應,產(chǎn)生負的外部性,抑制經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展。本文以房地產(chǎn)投資為視角,引用奧塔維諾提出的線性自由資本模型,結(jié)合新古典經(jīng)濟學和城市經(jīng)濟學相關理論,提出了我國房地產(chǎn)投資的空間集聚機制及影響因素的研究。我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是資本導向型產(chǎn)業(yè),房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展與房地產(chǎn)投資密切相關,因此借鑒線性自由資本模型的理論機制對我國房地產(chǎn)投資的空間集聚機制進行了分析。理論分析發(fā)現(xiàn)資本收益率對資本的流向起關鍵作用,而資本收益率由“市場規(guī)模效應”和“市場擁擠效應”共同決定。在理論分析的基礎上,本文選取了可以反映市場規(guī)模效應和市場擁擠效應的四個變量(城市人口規(guī)模、制造業(yè)規(guī)模、人均收入、市場潛能)對房地產(chǎn)投資的影響因素進行了定性分析和實證檢驗。本文首先對我國259個地級以上城市的全樣本數(shù)據(jù)進行了面板數(shù)據(jù)模型檢驗,實證結(jié)果表明本文所選取的四個解釋變量對我國房地產(chǎn)投資的影響均通過了顯著性檢驗,而且現(xiàn)階段,各解釋變量與我國房地產(chǎn)投資都存在正相關;隨后,本文把我國259個城市分為東部、中部和西部三大地區(qū)分別進行實證檢驗,結(jié)果顯示,城市規(guī)模、人均收入水平等變量對東部地區(qū)城市的房地產(chǎn)投資的影響已經(jīng)非常顯著;中部地區(qū)城市人均收入與市場潛能對房地產(chǎn)投資的影響已非常顯著,制造業(yè)規(guī)模對房地產(chǎn)投資的影響還沒有顯現(xiàn);城市市場潛能是影響我國西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資最重要的影響因素。本文運用空間計量模型對我國房地產(chǎn)投資空間集聚機制進行實證檢驗,結(jié)果證實了線性自由資本模型對房地產(chǎn)投資集聚機制的解釋,市場效應對房地產(chǎn)投資的空間集聚起決定作用,本地市場規(guī)模的擴大將吸引更多的房地產(chǎn)投資流入。最后基于對我國三大地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資集聚水平及主要影響因素的分析,結(jié)合我國現(xiàn)階段房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,提出相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the promotion of industrial structure reform and the construction of new urbanization, real estate industry is playing a more and more important role in the national economy, and the real estate industry has developed into a pillar industry of our national economy. With the rapid rise of house prices, "the housing problem has become the core issue of the national economy and people's livelihood in recent years, and the research on the real estate industry has always been a hot topic for scholars." Krugman constructed a new economic geography model to discuss the spatial agglomeration mechanism of industry. Then more and more scholars studied the spatial agglomeration phenomenon of regional economy and industrial development. On the one hand, the agglomeration and development of the economy will produce positive externalities, and the adjacent development of enterprises will increase the spatial spillover effect, reduce transport and transaction costs, and promote economic development; on the other hand, due to the limited space, The agglomeration of industry will produce crowding effect, negative externality and restrain the rapid development of economy. In this paper, from the perspective of real estate investment, the linear free capital model proposed by Otta Verno, combined with the relevant theories of neoclassical economics and urban economics, is proposed to study the spatial agglomeration mechanism and influencing factors of real estate investment in China. China's real estate industry is a capital-oriented industry. The development of real estate industry is closely related to real estate investment. Therefore, the spatial agglomeration mechanism of real estate investment in China is analyzed based on the theoretical mechanism of linear free capital model. Theoretical analysis shows that the return on capital plays a key role in the capital flow, and the return on capital is determined by "market size effect" and "market crowding effect". On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper selects four variables (urban population scale, manufacturing scale, per capita income) that can reflect market size effect and market congestion effect. The market potential) has carried on the qualitative analysis and the empirical test to the real estate investment influence factor. In this paper, first of all, the panel data model of 259 cities above the prefectural level is tested. The empirical results show that the four explanatory variables selected in this paper have passed the significance test of the impact of the four explanatory variables on the real estate investment in China. At the present stage, there is a positive correlation between the explanatory variables and real estate investment in China. Subsequently, 259 cities in China are divided into three regions: eastern, central and western. The results show that the size of the city is large. The effect of per capita income and other variables on real estate investment in eastern cities has been significant, while in central cities, the impact of per capita income and market potential on real estate investment has been very significant. The impact of manufacturing scale on real estate investment has not been shown, and the urban market potential is the most important factor affecting real estate investment in western China. This paper uses the spatial econometric model to test the spatial agglomeration mechanism of real estate investment in China, and the result proves that the linear free capital model explains the agglomeration mechanism of real estate investment. Market effect plays a decisive role in the spatial agglomeration of real estate investment. The expansion of local market size will attract more real estate investment inflows. Finally, based on the analysis of the agglomeration level of real estate investment in three regions of China and the main influencing factors, and combining with the present situation of real estate development in China, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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