本文選題：廣西林業(yè) + 七坡林場��； 參考：《中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著廣西林業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,與林業(yè)相關(guān)的項(xiàng)目日漸增多,成為了廣西財(cái)政收入主要來源之一,同時,廣西政府也大力發(fā)展林業(yè)建設(shè),不斷提供優(yōu)越的條件促進(jìn)林業(yè)項(xiàng)目的開展,因此為了盡快推動廣西林業(yè)項(xiàng)目投資的發(fā)展,將社會資本引入基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資林業(yè)領(lǐng)域的PPP(Public-Private-Partnership)模式成為了一個新興的林業(yè)投資項(xiàng)目。然而,PPP模式只是提供基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)的選項(xiàng)之一,政府不能主觀偏好某一采購模式或否定某一模式,應(yīng)當(dāng)有科學(xué)的可量化的依據(jù)來判斷該模式是否物有所值(Value for Money,簡稱VFM)。本文的主要目的是在深入了解VFM基本理論的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合廣西國有七坡林場PPP項(xiàng)目的具體特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建專門針對七坡林場PPP項(xiàng)目的VFM定量評價模型。首先,分析了 PPP項(xiàng)目VFM定量評價的基本理論及實(shí)踐,在總結(jié)分析我國PPP項(xiàng)目的基本運(yùn)作模式及主要特性的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了七坡林場PPP項(xiàng)目VFM定量評價的框架模型。然后提出了該框架模型中的兩大組成部分---公共部門比較值(PSC)、PPP值(影子報(bào)價PPP值和實(shí)際報(bào)價PPP值兩個層次)的組成及計(jì)算模型,從而構(gòu)成了完整的廣西林業(yè)PPP項(xiàng)目VFM定量評價模型。另外,VFM定量評價通常受到很多因素的影響,本文對影響評價結(jié)果的最為關(guān)鍵的幾個因素進(jìn)行了具體分析:折現(xiàn)率的確定及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。對于折現(xiàn)率的確定,分析了國外VFM定量評價中常用的折現(xiàn)率的特點(diǎn),并結(jié)合七坡林場PPP項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn),選擇無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率作為折現(xiàn)率;風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析部分則通過文獻(xiàn)調(diào)查及WBS—RBS法識別出七坡林場PPP項(xiàng)目中存在的32種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,引入集值統(tǒng)計(jì)法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的量化,并提出了七坡林場PPP項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)原則作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的理論依據(jù)。最后,將新構(gòu)建的七坡林場PPP項(xiàng)目VFM定量評價模型應(yīng)用于七坡森林公園項(xiàng)目具體環(huán)境中,根據(jù)七坡森林公園項(xiàng)目的具體資料與數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,驗(yàn)證了構(gòu)建的VFM定量評價模型的適用性及可行性,為廣西林業(yè)項(xiàng)目PPP模式的選擇提供了科學(xué)的可量化依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of forestry in Guangxi, forestry related projects are increasing day by day and become one of the main sources of fiscal revenue in Guangxi. At the same time, the Guangxi government has also vigorously developed forestry construction and provided favorable conditions to promote the development of forestry projects. Therefore, in order to promote the development of forestry project investment in Guangxi as soon as possible, the PPPPic-Private-Partnership-based model of introducing social capital into the field of infrastructure investment in forestry has become a new forestry investment project. However, the PPP model is only one of the options for providing infrastructure products or services. The government should not be subjective in favor of a certain procurement model or negate a certain model, and there should be a scientific and quantifiable basis to determine whether the model is worth the value of value for money. The main purpose of this paper is to establish a VFM quantitative evaluation model for the PPP project of Qipo Forest Farm in Guangxi, on the basis of deeply understanding the basic theory of VFM and combining with the specific characteristics of the PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm of Guangxi. Firstly, the basic theory and practice of VFM quantitative evaluation of PPP project are analyzed. Based on the summary and analysis of the basic operation mode and main characteristics of PPP project in China, the frame model of VFM quantitative evaluation for PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm is put forward. Then, the composition and calculation model of the two major components of the framework model, the public sector comparison value and the PSC-PPP value (shadow PPP value and actual PPP value) are proposed. Thus a complete quantitative evaluation model of Guangxi forestry PPP project VFM is constructed. In addition, the quantitative evaluation of VFM is usually affected by many factors. This paper makes a concrete analysis of the most important factors affecting the evaluation results: the determination of discount rate and risk analysis. For the determination of discount rate, this paper analyzes the characteristics of discount rate commonly used in quantitative evaluation of VFM abroad, and selects risk-free interest rate as discount rate according to the characteristics of PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm. In the part of risk analysis, 32 kinds of risk factors in PPP project of Qipo Forest Farm are identified by literature survey and WBS-RBS method. The risk sharing principle of PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm is put forward as the theoretical basis of risk sharing. Finally, the newly constructed VFM quantitative evaluation model of PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm is applied to the specific environment of Qipo Forest Park Project, and the empirical study is carried out according to the specific data and data of Qipo Forest Park Project. The applicability and feasibility of the VFM quantitative evaluation model were verified, which provided a scientific and quantifiable basis for the selection of PPP model for Guangxi forestry project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283;F326.27

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