本文選題：區(qū)域因素 + 財務(wù)風(fēng)險��； 參考：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是我國的支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè),房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展存在明顯的區(qū)域差異,近年來不同城市的市場分化更趨明顯,一線城市及熱點(diǎn)二線城市依然供不應(yīng)求,房價表現(xiàn)堅(jiān)挺,而多數(shù)三四線城市供求結(jié)構(gòu)失衡,房價指數(shù)上漲動力不再,去庫存問題嚴(yán)重,可見,不同的區(qū)域因素對房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險影響也會有所不同。很多學(xué)者已經(jīng)對房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了研究,但是針對區(qū)域因素對于房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險影響的研究還比較薄弱,基于以上的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展背景,本文從區(qū)域不同對房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險影響不同的角度出發(fā),主要來分析區(qū)域因素對房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險是否有影響,有什么樣的影響,以及哪些區(qū)域差異變量對房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險有顯著影響,以期能夠?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)公司作出些許指導(dǎo),同時為政府引導(dǎo)地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供些許參考。Z-Score模型也稱為Z計分模型,是美國紐約大學(xué)Edward I.Altman教授創(chuàng)立的,主要從企業(yè)資產(chǎn)流動性、獲利能力、財務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)、償債能力和發(fā)展能力等方面綜合反映企業(yè)的財務(wù)狀況。Z值越小,企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險越大,反之,Z值越大,企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險越小。本文在區(qū)域理論和財務(wù)風(fēng)險相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,采用多層線性模型(HLM)的分析思想,以11個省市40家房地產(chǎn)上市公司為樣本,使用2009-2014年6年的數(shù)據(jù)作為研究區(qū)間,以房地產(chǎn)上市公司的Z值作為因變量,選取區(qū)域?qū)用娴膭趧訁⑴c率、投資水平、工業(yè)化水平、對外依存度、城市化水平來作為自變量,并選取了企業(yè)層面的前五大股東持股比例、資產(chǎn)增長率和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率來作為控制變量,進(jìn)行了涉及區(qū)域和企業(yè)兩個層面的房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險因素分析,并得出了以下結(jié)論:1、區(qū)域變量勞動參與率對房地產(chǎn)上市公司Z值有顯著的負(fù)影響,即勞動參與率越高,Z值越小,房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險越大。2、區(qū)域投資水平對房地產(chǎn)上市公司Z值有顯著的正影響,即區(qū)域中投資水平越高,Z值越大,房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險越小。3、區(qū)域變量工業(yè)化水平對房地產(chǎn)上市公司Z值有顯著的正影響,即工業(yè)化水平越高,房地產(chǎn)上市公司Z值越大,房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險越小。4、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的對外依存度對房地產(chǎn)上市公司Z值有顯著的負(fù)影響,即對外依存度越高,Z值越小,房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險越大。5、區(qū)域的城市化水平對房地產(chǎn)上市公司的Z值有顯著的負(fù)影響,即城市化水平越高,Z值越小,房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險越大。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our country. There are obvious regional differences in the development of the real estate industry. In recent years, the market differentiation of different cities has become more obvious. The supply of first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities is still short of supply, and the price of house prices is strong. However, the supply and demand structure of most third and fourth tier cities is out of balance, the rising power of house price index is no longer, and the problem of destocking is serious. Therefore, different regional factors will have different effects on the financial risk of listed real estate companies. Many scholars have studied the financial risk factors of listed real estate companies, but the research on the impact of regional factors on the financial risk of listed real estate companies is relatively weak, based on the above background of real estate development. From the point of view of different regional influence on financial risk of listed real estate companies, this paper mainly analyzes whether and what kind of influence regional factors have on the financial risks of listed real estate companies. And which regional differences have a significant impact on the financial risk of listed real estate companies, in order to provide some guidance for real estate companies, At the same time, it provides some references for the development of the real estate industry in government-led areas. The Z-Score model, also known as the Z scoring model, was founded by Professor Edward I.Altman of New York University in the United States. It is mainly based on the liquidity, profitability, and financial structure of enterprises. The smaller the financial condition, the greater the financial risk, the greater the value of Z, the smaller the financial risk. On the basis of regional theory and financial risk theory, this paper takes 40 listed real estate companies in 11 provinces and cities as samples and uses the data of six years from 2009-2014 as the research interval. Taking Z value of real estate listed company as dependent variable, choosing labor participation rate, investment level, industrialization level, external dependence and urbanization level of regional level as independent variables. The first five shareholder shareholding ratio, asset growth rate and asset-liability ratio at the enterprise level are selected as control variables, and the financial risk factors of the listed real estate companies at the regional and enterprise levels are analyzed. And draw the following conclusion: 1, the regional variable labor participation rate has a significant negative impact on the Z value of listed real estate companies, that is, the higher the labor participation rate, the smaller the Z value. The greater the financial risk of real estate listed companies is, the greater the regional investment level has a significant positive effect on the Z value of real estate listed companies, that is, the higher the investment level in the region is, the greater the Z value is. The smaller the financial risk of listed real estate companies is. 3, the higher the industrialization level of the real estate listed companies is, the more the Z value of the real estate listed companies is, that is, the higher the industrialization level, the greater the Z value of the real estate listed companies. The smaller the financial risk of listed real estate companies is. 4, the negative effect of the external dependence of regional economy on the Z value of listed real estate companies is significant, that is, the higher the degree of external dependence is, the smaller the Z value is. The greater the financial risk of real estate listed companies. 5, the regional urbanization level has a significant negative impact on the Z value of real estate listed companies, that is, the higher the urbanization level, the smaller the Z value, the greater the financial risk of real estate listed companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.233.42;F832.51

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