本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化 + 泡沫��； 參考：《廣西大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著新時(shí)期城鎮(zhèn)化的推進(jìn),我國城市發(fā)展已經(jīng)取得了舉世矚目的成就。它不僅為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和社會(huì)發(fā)展提供強(qiáng)大的引擎,還是解決城鄉(xiāng)矛盾的重要途徑。雖然廣西壯族自治區(qū)秉持高速發(fā)展的勢(shì)頭,然而現(xiàn)行的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展模式已經(jīng)表露出眾多的問題,尋找新的發(fā)展方式,必須著眼于人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、空間、公共服務(wù)、生態(tài)環(huán)境等方面,對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化可能產(chǎn)生的問題進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性和科學(xué)性的分析。本文基于“泡沫的視角”,通過比較金融市場(chǎng)泡沫和房地產(chǎn)泡沫的一般規(guī)律,借助于前人的相關(guān)理論總結(jié),結(jié)合廣西壯族自治區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀以及可能產(chǎn)生泡沫的原因,嘗試從城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫的角度對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中的問題進(jìn)行描述和測(cè)度,并且通過自治區(qū)城市的比較和全國水平的差異性,提出具體的對(duì)策。本文采用了實(shí)證分析的方法,首先解釋了選取指標(biāo)的意義,然后運(yùn)用熵值法確定了公共服務(wù)水平和生態(tài)環(huán)境水平,最后通過四象限分析法從人口城鎮(zhèn)化、空間城鎮(zhèn)化、經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化、公共服務(wù)城鎮(zhèn)化、生態(tài)環(huán)境城鎮(zhèn)化五個(gè)方面對(duì)廣西壯族自治區(qū)2005-2015年的泡沫現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行了測(cè)度研究。研究結(jié)果表明:城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫的產(chǎn)生可能存在三種情況(1)城鎮(zhèn)化各指標(biāo)層的發(fā)展速度不及常住人口城鎮(zhèn)化的變化速度(2)由于歷史因素或未把握發(fā)展機(jī)遇造成經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)水平滯后,同時(shí)缺乏產(chǎn)業(yè)間的良性互動(dòng),導(dǎo)致基礎(chǔ)薄弱,發(fā)展先天性緩慢。(3)城鎮(zhèn)化的某些領(lǐng)域的建設(shè)和推進(jìn)存在退步的現(xiàn)象,產(chǎn)生了負(fù)向的城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫。同時(shí)本文為解釋說明廣西城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫的特性,通過自治區(qū)內(nèi)部城市之間的橫向比較和全國水平的縱向比較分析得出了以下結(jié)論:(1)廣西壯族自治區(qū)大部分城市或多或少的存在不同程度的城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫現(xiàn)象,人口城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫最輕,經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫最為嚴(yán)重,空間城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫、公共服務(wù)城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫以及生態(tài)環(huán)境城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫凸顯。(2)較之落后的桂西資源富集區(qū),城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫現(xiàn)象嚴(yán)重,自治區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)市在人口、空間、經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫方面不明顯而在公共服務(wù)和生態(tài)環(huán)境泡沫方面顯著,旅游城市總體上的城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫不顯著。(3)同全國比較,廣西人口城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫較為輕微,公共服務(wù)城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫程度較大,空間城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫同全國發(fā)展趨勢(shì)基本一致,經(jīng)濟(jì)城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫和環(huán)境城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫同全國差異顯著。綜合理論分析與實(shí)證結(jié)果,本文對(duì)抑制廣西城鎮(zhèn)化泡沫提出了相應(yīng)的以下幾點(diǎn)對(duì)策:(1)堅(jiān)持以人為本,提升人口質(zhì)量。(2)調(diào)整好城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村的關(guān)系。(3)結(jié)合區(qū)域特色進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)整合。(4)貫徹科學(xué)工業(yè)發(fā)展政策,走新型城鎮(zhèn)化道路。
[Abstract]:With the advance of urbanization in the new period, China's urban development has made remarkable achievements. It not only provides a powerful engine for China's economic growth and social development, but also an important way to solve the contradiction between urban and rural areas. Although Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region has maintained the momentum of rapid development, however, the current urbanization development model has revealed many problems. In order to find a new way of development, we must focus on population, economy, space, and public services. Ecological environment and other aspects, the possible problems arising from urbanization are systematically and scientifically analyzed. Based on the "bubble perspective", by comparing the general laws of financial market bubble and real estate bubble, with the help of previous relevant theories, this paper combines the present situation of urbanization development in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region and the possible causes of bubble. This paper attempts to describe and measure the problems in the process of urbanization from the angle of urbanization bubble, and puts forward concrete countermeasures through the comparison of autonomous region cities and the difference of national level. This paper uses the method of empirical analysis, first explains the significance of selecting indicators, then determines the level of public service and ecological environment by using entropy method, and finally, through the four-quadrant analysis, analyzes the urbanization of population and the urbanization of space. The bubble phenomenon of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region from 2005 to 2015 was measured and studied in five aspects: economic urbanization, urbanization of public services and urbanization of ecological environment. The results show that: there may be three conditions for the emergence of urbanization bubble. 1) the development speed of each index layer of urbanization is not as fast as that of resident population. 2) the economic base level lags behind due to historical factors or lack of grasp of development opportunity. At the same time, the lack of benign interaction between industries leads to weak foundation, the development of congenital slow. 3) urbanization in some areas of the construction and promotion of the phenomenon of retrogression, resulting in a negative urbanization bubble. At the same time, in order to explain the characteristics of urbanization bubble in Guangxi, Through the horizontal comparison of cities within the autonomous region and the longitudinal comparative analysis of the national level, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) most cities in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region have more or less different degrees of urbanization bubble phenomenon. Population urbanization bubble is the lightest, economic urbanization bubble is the most serious, spatial urbanization bubble, public service urbanization bubble and ecological environment urbanization bubble highlight. The population, space and economic urbanization bubble is not obvious in the strong cities of the autonomous region, but it is significant in the areas of public services and ecological environment, while the urbanization bubble in the tourist cities as a whole is not significant compared with the whole country. Guangxi's population urbanization bubble is relatively slight, the public service urbanization bubble degree is bigger, the spatial urbanization bubble is basically consistent with the national development trend, and the economic urbanization bubble and the environmental urbanization bubble are obviously different from the whole country. Synthesizing the theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward the following corresponding countermeasures to suppress the urbanization bubble in Guangxi: 1) adhere to the people-oriented approach. Improve the quality of population. 2) adjust the relationship between town and countryside. 3) combine the regional characteristics to carry out the industrial integration. 4) carry out the scientific industrial development policy and take the new way of urbanization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27

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