本文選題：水資源承載力　切入點(diǎn)：城市適度規(guī)模　出處：《城市問(wèn)題》2017年10期

【摘要】：基于水資源承載力建立了城市適度規(guī)模計(jì)算模型和城市適度規(guī)模與實(shí)際人口的協(xié)調(diào)度評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)山東半島城市群適度規(guī)模與水資源承載力協(xié)調(diào)程度的時(shí)空格局進(jìn)行了評(píng)估,對(duì)未來(lái)水資源約束下的山東半島城市的適度規(guī)模進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果顯示:山東半島城市群水資源供給水平及居民生活可利用水平呈現(xiàn)在波動(dòng)中略微下降的趨勢(shì);2004-2014年,山東半島城市群實(shí)際人口規(guī)模高于城市適度規(guī)模,區(qū)域水資源處于超載狀態(tài),城市適度規(guī)模距離協(xié)調(diào)度為瀕臨失調(diào)狀態(tài);從空間格局上來(lái)看,山東半島城市群西部的水資源供需狀況優(yōu)于東部地區(qū)。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示,2015-2020年山東半島城市群基于水資源承載力的城市適度規(guī)模小于線性預(yù)測(cè)人口,差距有逐年增大的趨勢(shì)。據(jù)此認(rèn)為,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、加快用水技術(shù)革新、建立水資源補(bǔ)償與恢復(fù)機(jī)制、加強(qiáng)區(qū)際用水協(xié)調(diào)是應(yīng)對(duì)山東半島城市群水資源供需矛盾的應(yīng)有措施。
[Abstract]:Based on the calculation model of water resources carrying capacity and the evaluation model of coordination degree between urban moderate scale and actual population, the spatial and temporal pattern of the coordination degree between the appropriate scale of urban agglomeration and the carrying capacity of water resources in Shandong Peninsula is evaluated.The moderate scale of Shandong Peninsula city under the restriction of water resources in the future is forecasted.The results show that the water resources supply level and the living available level of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration show a slightly decreasing trend in fluctuation. From 2004 to 2014, the actual population scale of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is higher than that of urban moderate scale.The regional water resources are in the state of overload and the coordination degree of the moderate scale distance of the city is on the verge of imbalance. From the spatial pattern, the water resources supply and demand situation in the west of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is superior to that in the eastern region.The forecast results show that the appropriate scale of cities based on water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration from 2015 to 2020 is smaller than that of linear forecast population, and the gap is increasing year by year.It is concluded that optimizing the industrial structure, speeding up the technological innovation of water use, establishing the mechanism of water resources compensation and restoration, and strengthening the coordination of water use among regions are the necessary measures to deal with the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.
【作者單位】： 濟(jì)南大學(xué)商學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)系;山東師范大學(xué)地理與環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41571525)
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27;TV213.4

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