本文選題：城市軌道交通　切入點：PPP　出處：《鄭州大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,PPP(Public-Private Partnership)模式在我國城市軌道交通領域得到了極大的發(fā)展,有效地緩解了政府財政預算壓力,提高了城市軌道交通的供給數(shù)量、質(zhì)量和效率。城市軌道交通PPP項目在特許經(jīng)營期結束后,需將整套項目移交于政府部門,在漫長的特許經(jīng)營期內(nèi),各種風險因素隨機發(fā)生且錯綜復雜,增加了項目目標實現(xiàn)的難度,使得政府部門與私營企業(yè)移交時面臨的項目價值受損問題,此時殘值風險問題集中暴露,對項目移交后的性能、社會經(jīng)濟效益及可持續(xù)性等造成很大的影響,嚴重阻礙城市軌道交通的穩(wěn)健發(fā)展,因此理清城市軌道交通PPP項目殘值風險因素,確定不同風險因素對殘值的作用效果,實現(xiàn)整個特許經(jīng)營期內(nèi)城市軌道交通PPP項目殘值風險的監(jiān)測和防控,對其順利移交具有重要的理論意義和實踐價值。因此,本文對城市軌道交通PPP項目殘值風險影響因素進行了深入的研究。首先簡要回顧PPP項目風險管理、PPP項目殘值風險及城市軌道交通PPP項目的相關理論及研究現(xiàn)狀,提出研究城市軌道交通PPP項目殘值風險的必要性;其次,通過文獻梳理結合相關案例,對城市軌道交通PPP項目殘值風險因素進行歸納與分析,并構建殘值風險因素的社會網(wǎng)絡關系,確定殘值風險因素之間的相關關系,進而識別出關鍵風險因素。然后以系統(tǒng)思考為基礎,構建因果關系圖,通過編寫數(shù)學方程式,構建其殘值風險SD模型,以實現(xiàn)殘值風險的定量分析和動態(tài)預測。借助Vensim平臺進行仿真研究,結果表明:不同風險因素對城市軌道交通PPP項目殘值風險的作用效果存在差異,其中政府補貼、工程質(zhì)量、客流量、定價收費及運營服務質(zhì)量對PPP項目殘值風險起減弱抑制作用;通貨膨脹、建設成本、年運營成本、同類競爭項目、維修/維護成本則對PPP項目殘值風險起加強促進作用。當項目處在某一階段促進作用合力大于抑制作用合力時,PPP項目殘值風險增加,反之則減小。最后根據(jù)仿真結果,從政府補貼機制、建設成本管控、精簡年運營成本、擴大客流量、定價等關鍵因素方面提出不同階段改善殘值風險的對策及建議,實現(xiàn)殘值風險的事前、事中、事后控制,達到降低殘值風險,保證項目順利移交和穩(wěn)健發(fā)展的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the PPP- Public-Private Partnership (PPP- Private Partnership) model has been greatly developed in the field of urban rail transit in China, which has effectively alleviated the pressure on the government budget and improved the quantity, quality and efficiency of the supply of urban rail transit.After the franchise period of urban rail transit PPP project, it is necessary to transfer the whole project to the government department. During the long franchise period, various risk factors occur randomly and intricate, which increases the difficulty of the realization of the project objectives.This makes the value of the project damaged when the government departments and private enterprises are handed over. At this time, the risk of residual value is exposed in a concentrated way, which has a great impact on the performance, social and economic benefits and sustainability of the project after the handover.It seriously hinders the steady development of urban rail transit, so it clarifies the risk factors of residual value of PPP project of urban rail transit, and determines the effect of different risk factors on residual value.It is of great theoretical and practical value to realize the monitoring and prevention and control of residual value risk of urban rail transit PPP project during the whole franchise period.Therefore, this paper carries on the thorough research to the urban rail transit PPP project residual value risk factor.Firstly, this paper briefly reviews the risk management of PPP project and the related theories and research status of PPP project of urban rail transit, and puts forward the necessity of studying residual risk of PPP project of urban rail transit.Through literature combing combined with relevant cases, the residual risk factors of urban rail transit PPP project are summarized and analyzed, and the social network relationship of residual risk factors is constructed to determine the correlation between residual risk factors.Then the key risk factors are identified.Then on the basis of systematic thinking, the causality diagram is constructed, and the SD model of residual risk is constructed by compiling mathematical equation, so as to realize quantitative analysis and dynamic prediction of residual risk.The results show that different risk factors have different effects on residual risk of PPP project of urban rail transit, including government subsidy, project quality, passenger flow, etc.Pricing and quality of service play a weakening and restraining role on residual risk of PPP project, inflation, construction cost, annual operating cost, similar competitive project, maintenance / maintenance cost play an important role in promoting residual risk of PPP project.The risk of residual value of PPP project increases when the promotive force is greater than the inhibitory force at a certain stage, otherwise it decreases.Finally, according to the simulation results, from the government subsidy mechanism, construction cost control, reduce the annual operating cost, expand the passenger flow, pricing and other key factors to improve the residual risk countermeasures and suggestions in different stages, to achieve the residual risk in advance.After the event, control, to reduce the residual risk, to ensure the smooth transfer and steady development of the project.
【學位授予單位】：鄭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283

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本文編號：1714848