本文選題：城市軌道交通　切入點(diǎn)：PPP　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,PPP(Public-Private Partnership)模式在我國城市軌道交通領(lǐng)域得到了極大的發(fā)展,有效地緩解了政府財政預(yù)算壓力,提高了城市軌道交通的供給數(shù)量、質(zhì)量和效率。城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目在特許經(jīng)營期結(jié)束后,需將整套項(xiàng)目移交于政府部門,在漫長的特許經(jīng)營期內(nèi),各種風(fēng)險因素隨機(jī)發(fā)生且錯綜復(fù)雜,增加了項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)的難度,使得政府部門與私營企業(yè)移交時面臨的項(xiàng)目價值受損問題,此時殘值風(fēng)險問題集中暴露,對項(xiàng)目移交后的性能、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)效益及可持續(xù)性等造成很大的影響,嚴(yán)重阻礙城市軌道交通的穩(wěn)健發(fā)展,因此理清城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險因素,確定不同風(fēng)險因素對殘值的作用效果,實(shí)現(xiàn)整個特許經(jīng)營期內(nèi)城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險的監(jiān)測和防控,對其順利移交具有重要的理論意義和實(shí)踐價值。因此,本文對城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險影響因素進(jìn)行了深入的研究。首先簡要回顧PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理、PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險及城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目的相關(guān)理論及研究現(xiàn)狀,提出研究城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險的必要性;其次,通過文獻(xiàn)梳理結(jié)合相關(guān)案例,對城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行歸納與分析,并構(gòu)建殘值風(fēng)險因素的社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系,確定殘值風(fēng)險因素之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系,進(jìn)而識別出關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險因素。然后以系統(tǒng)思考為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建因果關(guān)系圖,通過編寫數(shù)學(xué)方程式,構(gòu)建其殘值風(fēng)險SD模型,以實(shí)現(xiàn)殘值風(fēng)險的定量分析和動態(tài)預(yù)測。借助Vensim平臺進(jìn)行仿真研究,結(jié)果表明:不同風(fēng)險因素對城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險的作用效果存在差異,其中政府補(bǔ)貼、工程質(zhì)量、客流量、定價收費(fèi)及運(yùn)營服務(wù)質(zhì)量對PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險起減弱抑制作用;通貨膨脹、建設(shè)成本、年運(yùn)營成本、同類競爭項(xiàng)目、維修/維護(hù)成本則對PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險起加強(qiáng)促進(jìn)作用。當(dāng)項(xiàng)目處在某一階段促進(jìn)作用合力大于抑制作用合力時,PPP項(xiàng)目殘值風(fēng)險增加,反之則減小。最后根據(jù)仿真結(jié)果,從政府補(bǔ)貼機(jī)制、建設(shè)成本管控、精簡年運(yùn)營成本、擴(kuò)大客流量、定價等關(guān)鍵因素方面提出不同階段改善殘值風(fēng)險的對策及建議,實(shí)現(xiàn)殘值風(fēng)險的事前、事中、事后控制,達(dá)到降低殘值風(fēng)險,保證項(xiàng)目順利移交和穩(wěn)健發(fā)展的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the PPP- Public-Private Partnership (PPP- Private Partnership) model has been greatly developed in the field of urban rail transit in China, which has effectively alleviated the pressure on the government budget and improved the quantity, quality and efficiency of the supply of urban rail transit.After the franchise period of urban rail transit PPP project, it is necessary to transfer the whole project to the government department. During the long franchise period, various risk factors occur randomly and intricate, which increases the difficulty of the realization of the project objectives.This makes the value of the project damaged when the government departments and private enterprises are handed over. At this time, the risk of residual value is exposed in a concentrated way, which has a great impact on the performance, social and economic benefits and sustainability of the project after the handover.It seriously hinders the steady development of urban rail transit, so it clarifies the risk factors of residual value of PPP project of urban rail transit, and determines the effect of different risk factors on residual value.It is of great theoretical and practical value to realize the monitoring and prevention and control of residual value risk of urban rail transit PPP project during the whole franchise period.Therefore, this paper carries on the thorough research to the urban rail transit PPP project residual value risk factor.Firstly, this paper briefly reviews the risk management of PPP project and the related theories and research status of PPP project of urban rail transit, and puts forward the necessity of studying residual risk of PPP project of urban rail transit.Through literature combing combined with relevant cases, the residual risk factors of urban rail transit PPP project are summarized and analyzed, and the social network relationship of residual risk factors is constructed to determine the correlation between residual risk factors.Then the key risk factors are identified.Then on the basis of systematic thinking, the causality diagram is constructed, and the SD model of residual risk is constructed by compiling mathematical equation, so as to realize quantitative analysis and dynamic prediction of residual risk.The results show that different risk factors have different effects on residual risk of PPP project of urban rail transit, including government subsidy, project quality, passenger flow, etc.Pricing and quality of service play a weakening and restraining role on residual risk of PPP project, inflation, construction cost, annual operating cost, similar competitive project, maintenance / maintenance cost play an important role in promoting residual risk of PPP project.The risk of residual value of PPP project increases when the promotive force is greater than the inhibitory force at a certain stage, otherwise it decreases.Finally, according to the simulation results, from the government subsidy mechanism, construction cost control, reduce the annual operating cost, expand the passenger flow, pricing and other key factors to improve the residual risk countermeasures and suggestions in different stages, to achieve the residual risk in advance.After the event, control, to reduce the residual risk, to ensure the smooth transfer and steady development of the project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283

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