本文選題：商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)　出處：《西華大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)今房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)處于急需變革時(shí)期,各大房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)也在積極尋找適合房企的發(fā)展之路。而隨著老齡化趨勢(shì)的日益嚴(yán)重,養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁,市場(chǎng)養(yǎng)老是新常態(tài)所需。把房地產(chǎn)和養(yǎng)老結(jié)合起來的商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)是房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)細(xì)分出來的新興市場(chǎng)。由于商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)復(fù)雜的復(fù)合特性,在政策、市場(chǎng)、機(jī)制、盈利模式等未明朗的情況下進(jìn)行投資,將面臨更多、更為復(fù)雜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文基于開發(fā)商的角度,針對(duì)性探討商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)投資過程中面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究,以期更好地規(guī)避防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。首先,在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)、養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)研究、養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,明確了現(xiàn)階段的研究現(xiàn)狀,針對(duì)性地提出了研究視角和方法。綜合定義了商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)的含義,對(duì)商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)的特性、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了探討,并梳理了商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ);其次,分析了目前影響商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響因素,在文獻(xiàn)研究和問卷調(diào)查的基礎(chǔ)上整理出了全面的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并通過Vague集方法進(jìn)行指標(biāo)篩選,得到了由市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、開發(fā)選址風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、運(yùn)營(yíng)管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政策法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)6個(gè)一級(jí)指標(biāo),養(yǎng)老文化差異風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)定價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、二次租售風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等26個(gè)二級(jí)指標(biāo)構(gòu)成的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并對(duì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了分析;最后,構(gòu)建了AHP法和熵權(quán)法組合賦權(quán)的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,通過選取A項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)研究,研究結(jié)論與實(shí)際情況基本相符,提出了A項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施,并基于商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)的一般特性總結(jié)了商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)共性防范對(duì)策。研究的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要有:在已有評(píng)價(jià)基礎(chǔ)上,增加了對(duì)于消費(fèi)者的調(diào)查研究以及商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)的特性、現(xiàn)狀、政策研究,提出了一套較為完善的商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系;細(xì)分了養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)研究的領(lǐng)域,定義了商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn),引入了政策、法律等對(duì)商業(yè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響;改善評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重的確定,用主客觀結(jié)合的方法改進(jìn)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,使模型能夠更好的為開發(fā)商進(jìn)行投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)提供參考以及為后續(xù)研究做出貢獻(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the real estate industry is in a period of urgent need of change, and the major real estate enterprises are also actively looking for a suitable way for the development of housing enterprises. However, with the aging trend becoming increasingly serious, the pension industry has a strong momentum of development. The commercial endowment real estate which combines the real estate and the pension is the emerging market that the real estate industry subdivides. Because of the complex complex characteristic of the commercial endowment real estate, in the policy, the market, the mechanism, This paper, based on the perspective of developers, will discuss the risks faced in the investment process of commercial endowment real estate and carry out risk evaluation research. First of all, on the basis of the domestic and foreign scholars on real estate investment risk evaluation, pension real estate research, pension real estate investment risk evaluation research, clear the current research status. This paper puts forward the research angle and method, comprehensively defines the meaning of commercial endowment real estate, probes into the characteristics and industrial structure of commercial endowment real estate, and combs the relevant theoretical basis of risk evaluation of commercial endowment real estate investment. Secondly, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the investment risk of commercial endowment real estate, collates the comprehensive evaluation index system on the basis of literature research and questionnaire survey, and selects the index by Vague set method, and obtains the market risk. The evaluation index system is composed of economic risk, technical risk, development location risk, operation management risk, policy and law risk, pension culture difference risk, market pricing risk, secondary lease and sale risk, etc. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the combination of AHP and entropy weight method is constructed, and the conclusion is basically consistent with the actual situation by selecting item A for evaluation research. Based on the general characteristics of commercial endowment real estate, this paper puts forward the preventive measures of investment risk of project A, and sums up the common countermeasures of risk prevention of commercial endowment real estate investment. The innovations of the research are as follows: on the basis of existing evaluation, It has increased the investigation and research of consumers and the characteristics, present situation, policy research of commercial endowment real estate, put forward a set of relatively perfect evaluation index system of commercial endowment real estate investment risk, subdivided the field of pension real estate research, This paper defines commercial endowment real estate, introduces the influence of policy and law on the investment risk of commercial endowment real estate, improves the determination of evaluation index weight, and improves the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model by combining subjective and objective methods. The model can provide reference for developer investment risk assessment and contribute to further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F299.23;D669.6

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