本文選題：房地產(chǎn)投資　切入點：經(jīng)濟增長　出處：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著房地產(chǎn)逐漸發(fā)展成國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),房地產(chǎn)投資對經(jīng)濟增長的影響也越來越受到學(xué)界關(guān)注。過多加大房地產(chǎn)投資,意味著擠占了非房地產(chǎn)投資,我國房地產(chǎn)投資是否存在擠出效應(yīng)以及地區(qū)差異性,如果考慮擠出效應(yīng),房地產(chǎn)投資又會對經(jīng)濟增長有何影響,這正是本文的研究出發(fā)點。因此本文將在以往學(xué)者研究的基礎(chǔ)上,通過實證加以檢驗和研究。通過本文研究為政府的房地產(chǎn)宏觀調(diào)控決策提供一定的理論指導(dǎo)和依據(jù)。本文首先介紹了研究背景,房地產(chǎn)投資發(fā)展迅猛,可能出現(xiàn)投資過大而產(chǎn)生投資擠出效應(yīng),并從理論上分析房地產(chǎn)投資擠出效應(yīng)內(nèi)涵、存在性機理和房地產(chǎn)投資擠出效應(yīng)如何影響經(jīng)濟增長;而后分析我國房地產(chǎn)投資和經(jīng)濟增長的現(xiàn)狀,從描述統(tǒng)計角度闡述了我國房地產(chǎn)投資及GDP的分布狀況,并指出我國房地產(chǎn)投資發(fā)展可能存在的一些問題;接著本文以全國1995-2015年的房地產(chǎn)投資、非房地產(chǎn)投資和GDP數(shù)據(jù)為樣本指標,通過模型驗證了我國房地產(chǎn)投資擠出效應(yīng)的存在性。同時借鑒AgosinMayer研究思路,構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)投資擠出效應(yīng)面板模型,并分東、中、西地區(qū)對比,結(jié)果表明我國東部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資擠出效應(yīng)較強,而中西部地區(qū)相對較弱,說明東部地區(qū)增加房地產(chǎn)投資,引起的外部性較大;最后,本文以全國2000-2015年290個地級市面板數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,構(gòu)建加入擠出效應(yīng)的基于Feder兩部門的面板模型,分析房地產(chǎn)投資對經(jīng)濟增長的影響,并用普通面板回歸模型進行對比驗證,結(jié)果表明,考慮擠出效應(yīng)后,房地產(chǎn)投資對經(jīng)濟增長的影響系數(shù)明顯降低,從全國東、中、西地區(qū)對比來看,也證明了同樣的結(jié)論,說明這種房地產(chǎn)投資所帶來擠出效應(yīng)將對整個經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)生一定的負面影響,帶來一定的負外部性。本文將理論與實證相結(jié)合,研究了我國房地產(chǎn)投資擠出效應(yīng)相關(guān)問題,得出相應(yīng)合理結(jié)論。國家在進行房地產(chǎn)宏觀政策調(diào)控時,需要考慮擠出效應(yīng)所帶來的影響,避免過度投資而產(chǎn)生負外部性,為不同地區(qū)政府和企業(yè)進行房地產(chǎn)投資提供一定的參考依據(jù)。同時對促進產(chǎn)業(yè)投資協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:With the development of real estate as a pillar industry of national economy, the influence of real estate investment on economic growth has been paid more and more attention.Excessive increase in real estate investment means that non-real estate investment is being squeezed out. Is there an crowding out effect and regional differences in real estate investment in China? if crowding-out effects are considered, what impact will real estate investment have on economic growth?This is the starting point of this study.Therefore, this paper will test and research through empirical research on the basis of previous scholars.This paper provides some theoretical guidance and basis for the government's macro-control decision-making of real estate.This paper first introduces the research background, the real estate investment develops rapidly, may have the investment crowding-out effect, and theoretically analyzes the real estate investment crowding-out effect connotation.After analyzing the current situation of real estate investment and economic growth in China, the paper describes the distribution of real estate investment and GDP in China from the perspective of descriptive statistics.Then this paper takes the real estate investment, non-real estate investment and GDP data of the whole country from 1995 to 2015 as the sample index, and verifies the existence of the crowding-out effect of the real estate investment in our country through the model.At the same time, using AgosinMayer as a reference, a panel model of real estate investment crowding-out effect is constructed, which is divided into east, middle and west regions. The results show that the real estate investment crowding-out effect is stronger in the eastern part of China, but relatively weak in the central and western regions.The results show that the increase of real estate investment in the eastern region leads to greater externalities. Finally, based on the panel data of 290 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2015, this paper constructs a panel model based on Feder, which is based on crowding-out effect.This paper analyzes the impact of real estate investment on economic growth, and compares it with the ordinary panel regression model. The results show that the influence coefficient of real estate investment on economic growth is obviously reduced after taking into account the extrusion effect, from the east to the middle of China.The contrast in the western region also proves the same conclusion, which shows that the crowding out effect brought by the real estate investment will have a certain negative impact on the whole economic development and bring about certain negative externalities.This paper combines the theory with the empirical research, studies the problems related to the extrusion effect of real estate investment in China, and draws the corresponding reasonable conclusions.In order to avoid overinvestment and negative externality, the government should take into account the influence of crowding out effect in the macro-policy regulation of real estate, and provide some reference for the government and enterprises in different regions to invest in real estate.At the same time, it has important guiding significance to promote the coordinated development of industrial investment, real estate and national economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 全詩凡;黎紹凱;羅宏翔;李詩元;;房地產(chǎn)投資、空間效應(yīng)與城市化[J];投資研究;2016年08期

2 張延群;;我國房地產(chǎn)投資是否具有擠出效應(yīng)?——基于I(2)VECM的分析[J];數(shù)理統(tǒng)計與管理;2016年02期

3 王雋妮;萬永坤;董鎖成;;旅游業(yè)“擠出效應(yīng)”與區(qū)域差異分析[J];資源科學(xué);2015年03期

4 許憲春;賈海;李皎;李俊波;;房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟對中國國民經(jīng)濟增長的作用研究[J];中國社會科學(xué);2015年01期

5 楊整;徐海鋒;;房地產(chǎn)投資、消費和進出口與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系研究[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2014年24期

6 鄧博文;;工業(yè)企業(yè)房地產(chǎn)投資對企業(yè)創(chuàng)新的影響——基于中國上市公司數(shù)據(jù)的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟與管理研究;2014年10期

7 張洪;金杰;全詩凡;;房地產(chǎn)投資、經(jīng)濟增長與空間效應(yīng)——基于70個大中城市的空間面板數(shù)據(jù)實證研究[J];南開經(jīng)濟研究;2014年01期

8 陳湘州;袁永發(fā);;房地產(chǎn)投資影響經(jīng)濟增長的區(qū)域性差異——基于省際面板數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析[J];北京工商大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2013年06期

9 李暢;謝家智;吳超;;房地產(chǎn)投資與制造業(yè):促進效應(yīng)還是擠出效應(yīng)——基于非參數(shù)逐點回歸的實證分析[J];金融經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究;2013年05期

10 魏朝暉;;國民經(jīng)濟核算視角下房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對經(jīng)濟增長的影響研究——以四川為例[J];西南金融;2013年09期

，

本文編號：1686348