本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價格波動　切入點：消費支出　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年,我國住房制度改革,房價進入持續(xù)上漲時期,房地產(chǎn)市場也被投資者發(fā)現(xiàn),并逐漸成為我國城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭財富組成中的重要部分,且在家庭財富組成中所占比例呈逐漸增長的趨勢。因此,當房地產(chǎn)成為家庭財富的重要組成部分,而家庭財富的水平又是影響居民家庭消費水平的主要因素之一時,我國房地產(chǎn)價格的波動必然會對我國居民消費水平產(chǎn)生很大的影響。由于國家的大力扶植,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)飛速發(fā)展,在國民經(jīng)濟中占有越來越重要的地位,已經(jīng)逐漸成為我國的一大經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)支柱。因此為了把我國當前由外需、投資拉動經(jīng)濟,逐漸轉變?yōu)榭績?nèi)需拉動經(jīng)濟,弄清楚我國房地產(chǎn)價格波動與我國居民消費水平的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系就顯得越來越重要。本文創(chuàng)新地以不同收入群體消費水平受房價波動的影響為著眼點和研究思路。首先運用理論分析了房價波動與居民消費支出的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,并詳細分析了房地產(chǎn)價格波動影響居民消費這一傳導機制;然后利用我國2002年2015年的各季度數(shù)據(jù)作為支持進行實證,檢驗我國不同收入群體消費支出受房地產(chǎn)價格波動的影響,并得出結論;最后,結合我國實際情況與結論,為我國制定房地產(chǎn)市場調控政策提供一些政策建議。實證部分,本文根據(jù)2002-2015年我國不同收入群體的消費性支出、人均可支配收入、商品房銷售價格、股票價格指數(shù)等數(shù)據(jù),先后進行了單位根檢驗,協(xié)整檢驗,格蘭杰因果檢驗,建立了 VAR模型和個體固定效應模型去深入分析我國房地產(chǎn)價格波動對不同收入群體消費水平的影響。本文的實證結果表明,在影響居民消費支出的各種因素中,可支配收入這一要素仍是最主要的;房價的過快上漲對低收入群體的消費支出基本沒有影響;房價的過快上漲抑制了中等收入群體和高收入群體的消費支出,房地產(chǎn)財富效應整體表現(xiàn)為負效應,即房地產(chǎn)價格的上漲導致的房產(chǎn)增值并沒有促進居民消費,反而對居民消費產(chǎn)生了明顯的"擠出效應"。并針對這一研究結果分析了原因,并提出了相關的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, with the reform of housing system in our country, the real estate market has also been discovered by investors, and has gradually become an important part of the family wealth of urban residents in our country. Therefore, when real estate becomes an important part of household wealth, and the level of household wealth is one of the main factors affecting household consumption, The fluctuation of real estate prices in our country will inevitably have a great impact on the consumption level of Chinese residents. With the support of the country, the real estate industry has developed rapidly and occupied an increasingly important position in the national economy. Has gradually become a pillar of our country's economic industry. Therefore, in order to shift our country's current economy from external demand to investment-led economy, it is gradually changing to relying on domestic demand to pull the economy. It is more and more important to find out the internal relation between the fluctuation of real estate price and the consumption level of Chinese residents. This paper focuses on the effect of the fluctuation of house price on the consumption level of different income groups. First of all, the internal relationship between the fluctuation of house price and the consumption expenditure of residents is analyzed by using the theory. The paper also analyzes the transmission mechanism of the real estate price fluctuation affecting residents' consumption in detail, and then uses the quarterly data of China's 2002 and 2015 as evidence to test that the consumption expenditure of different income groups is affected by the fluctuation of real estate price. Finally, according to the actual situation and conclusion of our country, it provides some policy suggestions for China to formulate the real estate market regulation policy. In the empirical part, according to the consumption expenditure of different income groups in China from 2002 to 2015, Per capita disposable income, sale price of commercial housing, stock price index and other data have been tested successively by unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, etc. VAR model and individual fixed effect model are established to analyze the effect of real estate price fluctuation on the consumption level of different income groups in China. The factor of disposable income remains the most important; the excessive rise in house prices has little effect on consumer spending among low-income groups; and the excessive rise in house prices inhibits consumer spending among the middle-income and high-income groups. The real estate wealth effect as a whole shows negative effect, that is, the real estate value added caused by the rise of real estate price does not promote the residents' consumption, on the contrary, it has obvious "crowding out effect" on the residents' consumption. And put forward the relevant policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;F126.1

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 李順毅;;房價如何影響消費對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻——基于分位數(shù)回歸的實證分析[J];消費經(jīng)濟;2011年03期

2 徐沛東;;微觀視角下的房地產(chǎn)價格財富效應研究[J];中國物價;2011年01期

3 周守亮;;我國房地產(chǎn)價格波動對消費的影響分析——基于VAR模型的實證研究[J];價格理論與實踐;2010年03期

4 韓瑾;;住宅價格波動與居民消費支出增長的實證分析[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2010年04期

5 安佰萬;;我國房地產(chǎn)價格對城鎮(zhèn)居民消費的影響[J];大眾商務;2010年02期

6 陳秀梅;韓和林;趙元兵;;我國房地產(chǎn)價格波動對經(jīng)濟的影響分析——兼論我國房地產(chǎn)宏觀調控[J];價格理論與實踐;2009年08期

7 杜冰;;城市房價變化對居民消費行為的影響——基于城市面板數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析[J];建筑經(jīng)濟;2009年08期

8 李政;;房產(chǎn)價格的財富效應是否存在?——基于中國的面板數(shù)據(jù)[J];河南金融管理干部學院學報;2009年03期

9 賴溟溟;白欽先;;我國居民消費財富效應的實證研究[J];上海金融;2008年08期

10 周建軍;鞠方;;住宅價格波動與消費增長——基于中國數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析與理論解釋[J];科學經(jīng)濟社會;2008年02期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 黃靜;中國房地產(chǎn)價格上漲的廣義財富效應研究[D];上海交通大學;2010年

，

本文編號：1677260