本文選題：新型城鎮(zhèn)化　切入點：PPP模式　出處：《安徽建筑大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化是現(xiàn)代化的必由之路,是人類文明進步的重要標(biāo)志。改革開放以來我國城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)發(fā)展快速,主要依賴政府財政支出及土地出讓金的形式進行建設(shè)的傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)化重數(shù)量輕質(zhì)量,不能滿足全面建設(shè)小康社會的發(fā)展要求。十八大報告明確提出,作為促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的重點和推進完成小康社會建設(shè)的載體新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)必須走中國特色化道路。相對傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)化而言,新型城鎮(zhèn)化科學(xué)合理的推動建設(shè)進程,綜合發(fā)展、節(jié)約發(fā)展、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展、創(chuàng)新發(fā)展相結(jié)合,走以人為本、節(jié)約資源、環(huán)境友好、經(jīng)濟高效、城鄉(xiāng)一體化的道路。當(dāng)前眾多因素阻礙了新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)的步伐,資金是最為突出的制約因素。主要依賴政府財政支出、地方投融資平臺等以政府為主的融資模式,融資渠道狹窄,資金來源無法滿足建設(shè)需求,突破資金瓶頸,選擇正確的融資模式迫在眉睫。新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)中引入PPP模式,融資主體多元化的同時拓寬了融資渠道。重點研究利益相關(guān)者間如何合理分擔(dān)風(fēng)險、分配利益,構(gòu)建新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)中PPP運行機制。固定資產(chǎn)投資額由城鎮(zhèn)固定資產(chǎn)投資額與農(nóng)村固定資產(chǎn)投資兩部分組成,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與固定資產(chǎn)投資額存在較強的相關(guān)性。選取2006年至2015年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與固定資產(chǎn)投資額為樣本觀察值。構(gòu)建時間序列模型預(yù)測2016年至2020年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值,根據(jù)Ln(INV)與Ln(GDP)的散點圖知二者具有較強的相關(guān)性。預(yù)測2016年至2020年的固定資產(chǎn)投資額。新型城鎮(zhèn)化進程中資金主要來源于自籌資金、國內(nèi)貸款、國家預(yù)算資金、外資、其他方式五個渠道。根據(jù)張魁偉等對不同資金來源與GDP的關(guān)系知,國家預(yù)算資金與外資受上一年說獲資金影響,其他三種來源與GDP存在較強的相關(guān)關(guān)系。預(yù)測五種渠道2016年至2020年可能供給的資金。既能影響項目能否成功也能被項目影響的個人或群體都被稱之為PPP項目的利益相關(guān)者。基于Shapley構(gòu)建PPP項目核心利益相關(guān)者公共部門與私營部門的利益分配模型,得到公共部門、私營部門各自所獲的聯(lián)盟收益。選取四個因素投入比例、風(fēng)險分?jǐn)傁禂?shù)、合同執(zhí)行度、貢獻度對利益分配的影響,建立基于Shapley值修正的PPP項目利益分配模型。不完全信息的討價還價博弈模型分析公、私各自需要承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險,引入海薩尼轉(zhuǎn)換,該模型由無限期轉(zhuǎn)化為完全但不完美的討價還價博弈。運用逆推法選擇三階段過程,求得精煉貝葉斯納什均衡解,即公、私部門不需要承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險比例。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the only way to modernization and an important symbol of the progress of human civilization. The traditional urbanization, which mainly relies on the form of government financial expenditure and land transfer funds, is heavy on quantity and light on quality, and cannot meet the development requirements of building a well-off society in an all-round way. As the focus of promoting the transformation of economic development mode and the carrier of completing the construction of well-off society, the new urbanization construction must follow the special road of China. Compared with the traditional urbanization, the new-type urbanization scientifically and reasonably promotes the construction process. Comprehensive development, economical development, coordinated development, innovative development, people-oriented, resource-saving, environment-friendly, economic and efficient, urban-rural integration. Capital is the most prominent constraint factor. It mainly depends on the government financing mode, such as government expenditure, local investment and financing platform, and so on. The financing channel is narrow, the source of funds can not meet the construction demand, and the capital bottleneck can be broken through. It is urgent to choose the correct financing mode. The introduction of PPP mode in the construction of new urbanization, the diversification of financing subjects and the widening of financing channels, focus on how to reasonably share risks and distribute benefits among stakeholders. Constructing the PPP operating mechanism in the new urbanization construction. The fixed assets investment consists of the urban fixed assets investment and the rural fixed assets investment. There is a strong correlation between GDP and investment in fixed assets. The gross domestic product (GDP) and investment in fixed assets from 2006 to 2015 are selected as sample observation values. A time series model is constructed to predict GDP from 2016 to 2016. According to the scattered plot of LnCINV and LnGDP, it is known that there is a strong correlation between them. The fixed assets investment from 2016 to 2020 is predicted. In the process of new urbanization, the main sources of funds are self-financing, domestic loans, state budget funds, foreign capital, etc. There are five other channels. According to Zhang Kui-wei 's relationship between different sources of capital and GDP, state budget funds and foreign capital are affected by the funds received last year. There is a strong correlation between the other three sources and GDP. Predict the funds that may be provided from 2016 to 2020 in five channels. Individuals or groups who can affect the success of the project as well as those who can be affected by the project are all referred to as the benefits of the PPP project. Benefit stakeholders. Based on Shapley to construct the PPP project core stakeholders public and private sector benefit allocation model, Select four factors: input ratio, risk sharing coefficient, contract execution degree, contribution degree to benefit distribution, select four factors of investment ratio, risk sharing coefficient, contract execution degree, contribution degree to benefit distribution, select four factors investment ratio, risk sharing coefficient, contract execution degree, contribution degree to benefit distribution, This paper establishes the profit distribution model of PPP project based on the Shapley value correction. The bargaining game model of incomplete information is used to analyze the risks that the public and private individuals have to bear, and then the Heisani transformation is introduced. The model is transformed from indefinite to a complete but imperfect bargaining game, and the refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium solution is obtained by selecting the three-stage process by using the inverse method, that is, the risk ratio that the public and private sectors do not have to bear.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽建筑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283

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