本文選題：城市化　切入點：城市用水　出處：《西安理工大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：城市化是伴隨著經(jīng)濟發(fā)展而出現(xiàn)的一種社會經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)和人口結(jié)構(gòu)的綜合性改變,一般表現(xiàn)為在一定區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)人口、資源、信息、生產(chǎn)資料以及其他經(jīng)濟要素的高度集聚。截止到2016年中國城市化率已經(jīng)達到了 57.35%,城市規(guī)模與數(shù)量的快速發(fā)展給城市供水帶來了巨大壓力。西安市處于半干旱半濕潤地區(qū),水資源短缺,人均水資源量僅為世界人均水資源量的1/11。水資源短缺明顯制約了西安市城市化的正常發(fā)展。本論文探討了西安市城市化進程與用水量之間的關(guān)系,分析城市化進程與用水的關(guān)系特征,尋找它們之間的相互作用以及規(guī)律并給出定量化的研究結(jié)果。主要研究內(nèi)容及結(jié)論如下:(1)分析了用水趨勢與用水特征。應(yīng)用Mann-Kendall趨勢分析方法對西安市居民生活用水量、農(nóng)業(yè)用水量、工業(yè)用水量和公共與生態(tài)環(huán)境用水量等進行了趨勢分析,并以人口城市化為標準,將城市化分為三個階段,對各個階段內(nèi)的城市用水特征進行了分析。結(jié)果表明,農(nóng)業(yè)用水量呈明顯減少趨勢;工業(yè)用水量經(jīng)歷了先增后減的一個過程;居民生活用水量呈明顯增加趨勢;生態(tài)環(huán)境用水量增加趨勢明顯。(2)構(gòu)建了城市化與用水耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型。建立評價指標體系,對西安市城市化系統(tǒng)與用水系統(tǒng)的耦合協(xié)調(diào)水平進行了測定。計算結(jié)果表明,城市化系統(tǒng)與用水系統(tǒng)的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度逐年增加。從耦合協(xié)調(diào)等級來看,西安市城市化系統(tǒng)與用水系統(tǒng)分別經(jīng)過了輕度失調(diào),勉強協(xié)調(diào),初級協(xié)調(diào),中級協(xié)調(diào),良好協(xié)調(diào),最終達到優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào),呈現(xiàn)出良性且可持續(xù)的發(fā)展趨勢。(3)研究了水資源約束下的城市適宜規(guī)模。建立了基于水資源約束的城市發(fā)展多目標決策模型,采用灰色預測和二次指數(shù)平滑法等系統(tǒng)預測方法預測了模型中的相關(guān)指標值,采用聯(lián)合國提出的兩期推算法推導出西安市城市化水平時間路徑方程,最后應(yīng)用多目標遺傳算法在不同供水條件下對模型進行求解。結(jié)果表明,引入外調(diào)水條件下到2025年和2030年,西安市的城市適宜總?cè)丝诜謩e為920萬人和947萬人;GDP為10800億元和12580億元。
[Abstract]:City is a comprehensive economic development accompanied by the emergence of a kind of social economic structure and population structure change, the general performance of the population, in certain areas of resources, information, production data and other economic factors are highly concentrated. By the end of 2016 China city rate has reached 57.35%, with the rapid development of city scale the number has brought great pressure to the water supply in the city. Xi'an city is in the semiarid and semi humid area, the shortage of water resources, water resources per capita is only 1/11. of the shortage of water resources in the world per capita water resources significantly restricts the normal development of urbanization of Xi'an city. This paper discusses the urbanization of Xi'an city and the relationship between water the characteristics analysis of the relationship between urbanization and city water, the results for the interaction between them and the law and some quantitative. The main research contents and conclusions as follows : (1) analysis of the water and water features. The trend analysis of Xi'an residents living in water by Mann-Kendall trend of agricultural water use, water and public water use and ecological environment of the industrial trend analysis, and the population of the city as the standard, the city is divided into three stages, city water the characteristics of each stage are analyzed. Results show that agricultural water use is decreasing; industry experienced a process of first increasing and then decreasing water consumption; household water use was significantly increased; the ecological environment of water increased obviously. (2) the construction of city and water coupling degree model. The establishment of evaluation index system, the coupling coordination level of Xi'an city system and water system were determined. The calculation results show that the city system and water system coordination degree increased year by year. From the coupling The coordination level, Xi'an city system and water system respectively after mild disorders, barely coordination, primary coordination, intermediate coordination, good coordination, and ultimately achieve good coordination, showing a trend of benign and sustainable. (3) study on the water resources under the constraint of suitable city scale. Set up the decision-making constraints of water resources the city to develop a multi-objective model based on the gray prediction and two exponential smoothing method and system forecasting methods to predict the indexes related to the values of the model proposed by the United Nations, the two Xi'an City derived level time path equation calculation, finally using multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the model under different water conditions. The results show that the introduction of water diversion conditions in 2025 and 2030, the city of Xi'an city for the total population were 9 million 200 thousand and 9 million 470 thousand; 10800 for GDP billion yuan and 12580 billion yuan.

【學位授予單位】：西安理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.27;TV213.4

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 曹飛;;中國省域城鎮(zhèn)化與用水結(jié)構(gòu)的空間庫茲涅茨曲線擬合與研判[J];干旱區(qū)資源與環(huán)境;2017年03期

2 唐賢芳;劉小剛;張如;;微分方程在西安市人口預測中的應(yīng)用[J];西安文理學院學報(自然科學版);2017年02期

3 宋紅霞;胡笑妍;;人民治理黃河70年城鎮(zhèn)供水效益分析[J];人民黃河;2016年12期

4 方偉;鄭文竹;樊立沙;凌云鵬;;基于二次指數(shù)平滑模型的中國社會電力需求預測分析[J];價值工程;2015年36期

5 魯春霞;馮躍;孫艷芝;謝高地;胡緒千;;北京城市擴張過程中的供水格局演變[J];資源科學;2015年06期

6 鮑超;陳小杰;;中國城鎮(zhèn)化對經(jīng)濟增長及用水變化的驅(qū)動效應(yīng)——基于省級行政區(qū)1997-2011年數(shù)據(jù)的分析（英文）[J];Journal of Geographical Sciences;2015年05期

7 蔣元勇;章茹;豐鍇斌;;南昌城市化與水資源環(huán)境交互耦合作用關(guān)系分析[J];人民長江;2014年14期

8 李恩平;;城市化時間路徑曲線的推導與應(yīng)用——誤解闡釋與研究拓展[J];人口研究;2014年03期

9 楊雪梅;楊太保;石培基;吳文婕;劉海猛;;西北干旱地區(qū)水資源-城市化復合系統(tǒng)耦合效應(yīng)研究——以石羊河流域為例[J];干旱區(qū)地理;2014年01期

10 張欣瑩;劉建林;李曉輝;高雙強;;西安市供用水現(xiàn)狀及水資源供需平衡分析[J];水資源與水工程學報;2013年06期

相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前4條

1 趙家祥;淮河中游枯水期水資源演變規(guī)律分析與配置方案研究[D];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學;2016年

2 唐曉龍;基于城市化進程中西安市主城區(qū)居住空間分異研究[D];長安大學;2014年

3 曾發(fā)琛;西安市水資源供需平衡分析及優(yōu)化配置研究[D];長安大學;2008年

4 郭小礫;基于社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的西安市水資源優(yōu)化配置研究[D];長安大學;2007年

，

本文編號：1613858