本文選題：房地產(chǎn)　切入點(diǎn)：財(cái)務(wù)杠桿　出處：《上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)作為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展中的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),在生產(chǎn)、流通、分配和消費(fèi)等各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)均發(fā)揮舉足輕重的紐帶作用。同時(shí),房地產(chǎn)作為資金密集型產(chǎn)業(yè),內(nèi)部資本結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)于行業(yè)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的穩(wěn)健發(fā)展,起著至關(guān)重要的作用。財(cái)務(wù)杠桿水平的高低反映著企業(yè)償債能力和財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),是企業(yè)穩(wěn)健發(fā)展的"溫度計(jì)",直接體現(xiàn)企業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)。目前我國(guó)大多數(shù)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)依然維持高負(fù)債運(yùn)營(yíng),在利率上行階段,高負(fù)債可能會(huì)引發(fā)嚴(yán)重的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文在參考經(jīng)典資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論和國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)實(shí)證分析的基礎(chǔ)上,首先以96家房地產(chǎn)上市企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,分析房地產(chǎn)上市企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)及其分布情況,得出較為合理的杠桿區(qū)間。然后從理論角度分析企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿的影響,據(jù)此提出合理假設(shè),并選擇合適的代理變量。在進(jìn)行初步描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)的基礎(chǔ)上,引入企業(yè)性質(zhì)這一虛擬變量,進(jìn)行全樣本實(shí)證回歸,得出各變量對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿的影響方向與影響程度。然后再按照企業(yè)性質(zhì)分別進(jìn)行實(shí)證回歸,并與全樣本回歸結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比,嘗試分析不同結(jié)果背后的深層原因。最后,嘗試性提出相關(guān)建議。第二章對(duì)本文的理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行梳理與分析。首先對(duì)資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的回顧,接著對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)按照發(fā)展歷程與研究結(jié)果兩個(gè)維度進(jìn)行梳理。第三章分析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)特性,進(jìn)行樣本篩選,對(duì)目前我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)上市企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行描述,并通過財(cái)務(wù)杠桿、財(cái)務(wù)杠桿系數(shù)、總資產(chǎn)收益率三大指標(biāo)的統(tǒng)計(jì)實(shí)證結(jié)果,確定目前適用于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的最佳杠桿區(qū)間。第四章在總結(jié)目前國(guó)內(nèi)外已有的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,提出可能影響房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿水平的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素和企業(yè)內(nèi)部因素,從理論角度分析其影響機(jī)理,并據(jù)此提出合理假設(shè),篩選合適的代理變量。第五章主要對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿水平的企業(yè)內(nèi)部因素與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證回歸。在描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)的基礎(chǔ)上,引入企業(yè)性質(zhì)這一虛擬變量,首先對(duì)全樣本進(jìn)行分析,而后按照企業(yè)性質(zhì)不同分別進(jìn)行子樣本的計(jì)量分析,最后對(duì)比并分析回歸結(jié)果的差異。第六章為結(jié)論、建議部分,總結(jié)本文的主要結(jié)論,提出相關(guān)建議,并提出本文研究的不足之處。本文的主要結(jié)論包括,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)上市企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)杠桿水平呈現(xiàn)不斷上漲趨勢(shì),理論上行業(yè)的最佳財(cái)務(wù)杠桿區(qū)間為0.5-0.7。對(duì)全樣本的回歸結(jié)果顯示,公司規(guī)模、盈利能力、抵押資產(chǎn)價(jià)值、成長(zhǎng)性、物價(jià)水平、信貸規(guī)模與財(cái)務(wù)杠桿呈正相關(guān),非債務(wù)稅盾、城市化水平與財(cái)務(wù)杠桿呈負(fù)相關(guān),并且企業(yè)性質(zhì)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿有顯著影響。企業(yè)性質(zhì)對(duì)于財(cái)務(wù)杠桿影響的不同表現(xiàn)在于,國(guó)有制企業(yè)受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響更顯著,其財(cái)務(wù)杠桿與盈利能力呈負(fù)相關(guān),而非國(guó)有企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)杠桿與盈利能力呈正相關(guān),與成長(zhǎng)性無顯著相關(guān)關(guān)系。并且國(guó)有企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿水平明顯高于非國(guó)有企業(yè)。本文可能存在的創(chuàng)新之處是:首先,在供給側(cè)改革的時(shí)代背景下,聚焦于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)杠桿,強(qiáng)調(diào)行業(yè)特性對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿的影響;其次,本文突破性的將企業(yè)性質(zhì)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿水平的影響納入研究范疇,依據(jù)股東背景的不同,分析樣本企業(yè)在財(cái)務(wù)杠桿水平和其影響因素上的差異,強(qiáng)調(diào)國(guó)有資本發(fā)揮的作用;再次,本文在影響因素的考量上,將微觀企業(yè)變量與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量相結(jié)合,更符合房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展特征;最后,本文選擇采用面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行研究,能夠有效避免共線性問題,實(shí)證結(jié)果具有一定的解釋力度。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry as a pillar industry of China's national economic and social development in all aspects of production, circulation, distribution and consumption play a pivotal role in the link. At the same time, real estate as a capital intensive industry, the capital structure for the industry long-term steady development, plays a vital role in the financial leverage. Reflect the level of enterprise solvency and financial risk, is the healthy development of enterprises "thermometer", directly reflects the enterprise capital structure. At present, most of China's real estate enterprises still maintain high operating liabilities, interest rates in the upward phase, high debt could lead to serious financial risk. Based on analysis of the classical capital structure theory and reference the domestic and foreign relevant empirical analysis, financial data based on the 96 listed real estate companies as the sample, analysis of the tendency of real estate companies and financial leverage The distribution, draw a reasonable leverage range. And then analyze the impact of the enterprise management and the macro economy on the financial leverage from the perspective of theory, put forward reasonable assumptions, and select the appropriate proxy variables. Based on the preliminary descriptive statistics, introducing a dummy variable of the nature of the enterprise, the whole sample regression, the variables affecting the direction and degree of financial leverage effect. Then according to the nature of the enterprise to carry out empirical regression, and compared with the regression results of the full sample, try a deep reasons behind different results. Finally, it puts forward relevant suggestions. Combing with the analysis of the second chapter is the theoretical basis of this paper. First, systematic review the theory of capital structure, then the related literatures in accordance with the development and research results of the two dimensions to sort out. The third chapter analysis room The characteristics of the industry of the real estate industry, the sample selection, to describe the change trend of the financial leverage of listed real estate companies at present, and through financial leverage, financial leverage, empirical statistics total assets yield three index results, determine the best leverage interval currently applicable to the real estate industry. In the fourth chapter summary the basis of the domestic and foreign existing real estate financial leverage on the research results, this may affect the macroeconomic factors of financial leverage level of the real estate industry and internal factors, from the theoretical point of view of its impact mechanism, and put forward reasonable assumptions, screening agent variables appropriate. The fifth chapter mainly internal factors of financial leverage the level of the domestic real estate industry and macroeconomic factors for empirical regression. Based on descriptive statistics, introducing a dummy variable of the nature of the enterprise, first of all All samples were analyzed, then according to the different nature of the enterprise measurement were sub sample analysis, finally we compare and analyse the difference between regression results. The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion part, summarized the main conclusions of this paper, puts forward relevant suggestions and points out the inadequacies of this study. The main conclusions of this paper include China's real estate listed the enterprise's financial leverage levels showed a rising trend, the best financial leverage theory on industry for the 0.5-0.7. interval of the whole sample regression results show that company size, profitability, collateral value of assets, growth, price level, credit scale and financial leverage are positively related, non debt tax shield, city level was negatively correlated with financial leverage, and the nature of the enterprise has a significant impact on financial leverage. The nature of enterprise performance for different financial leverage effect is that state-owned enterprises by the macroeconomic impact of more Obviously, the financial leverage is negatively correlated with profitability, and non state-owned enterprises, financial leverage and profitability are positively related, and no significant correlation with growth and financial leverage level of state-owned enterprises was significantly higher than that of non state-owned enterprises. The possible innovation is: first, on the supply side reform under the background of the times, financial leverage is focused on the real estate industry, emphasizing the industry characteristics and financial leverage; secondly, the breakthrough will affect the nature of the financial lever into the scope of the study, on the basis of shareholder background, analysis of differences in factors of sample enterprise financial leverage level and its impact on the state-owned capital, emphasize the role of; again, based on the consideration of the influence factors on the micro enterprise variables and macroeconomic variables combined, in line with the development characteristics of the real estate market; the most after the harvest The study of panel data can effectively avoid the problem of collinearity, and the empirical results have a certain degree of explanation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.42

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