本文關鍵詞： 東北地區(qū) 流出人口 就業(yè)狀態(tài) Logistic分析　出處：《吉林大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來東北地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟形勢不容樂觀,經(jīng)濟增速連年全國倒數(shù),東北問題引發(fā)社會各界的廣泛關注。在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中,人口和經(jīng)濟的增長是相互作用的關系,人口受經(jīng)濟增長的影響,反過來惡劣的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境也會影響一個地區(qū)的人口結構。東北地區(qū)在嚴峻的經(jīng)濟形勢下,所面臨的人口問題是人口外流現(xiàn)象,不僅規(guī)模大、增速快,還有加劇的趨勢。這些人口紛紛逃離東北,去其他地區(qū)就業(yè)謀生。因此為了改變現(xiàn)有的人口外流狀況,有必要研究影響這些人外出就業(yè)的因素,并據(jù)此來制定相關政策,來緩解人口外流對現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟的影響。本文的研究基于2015年流動人口動態(tài)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù),選取戶籍地為東北三省的流出人口,首先通過描述性分析,從性別年齡結構、戶籍狀況、受教育程度等人口屬性方面,流動方向、流動時長和流出原因等流動因素方面來介紹這些流出人口的總體狀況,發(fā)現(xiàn)具有如下特征:性別比偏高,以青壯年勞動力、農(nóng)業(yè)戶籍和中等學歷為主,傾向于流向東部沿海地區(qū),從事務工經(jīng)商,一般流動時間以2-5年居多,這些流出人口的勞動強度較大,不同戶籍和受教育程度直接影響收入水平,東部地區(qū)的收入水平最高。對流出人口的就業(yè)特征進行分析,選取就業(yè)狀態(tài)、主要職業(yè)、就業(yè)身份、單位性質、周工作時間、月收支等方面,結果顯示流出人口男性就業(yè)傾向高于女性,就業(yè)與否在受教育程度方面差異不大;就業(yè)身份方面,雇員是最主要的就業(yè)形態(tài)(65.9%),其次是自營勞動者;這些在業(yè)流出人口中,從事商業(yè)服務業(yè)的比重最高;單位性質為工商個體和民營集體的比重最高;在業(yè)人口從屬行業(yè)最多的是消費服務業(yè)、生產(chǎn)服務業(yè)和制造業(yè)。對流出人口的就業(yè)影響因素進行分析方面,采用Logistic分析方法,選取人口學特征、社會經(jīng)濟特征和流動特征為自變量,就業(yè)狀態(tài)和職業(yè)選擇為因變量。結果顯示:男性流出人口就業(yè)傾向高于女性;受教育程度對就業(yè)影響顯著,每提高一個教育等級,就業(yè)概率平均提高18.5%;在婚狀態(tài)更容易就業(yè);農(nóng)業(yè)戶籍流出人口就業(yè)概率高,但傾向于從事勞動強度大的工作;年齡有負向影響,每提高一個等級就業(yè)概率會降低43.9%;在職業(yè)選擇方面,除婚姻狀況外的其他變量都有顯著影響,這些因素體現(xiàn)在不同職業(yè)類型中。管理者和辦公室類、專業(yè)技術類職業(yè)中,就業(yè)概率與受教育程度呈正相關關系,與年齡呈負相關關系。在專業(yè)技術類和生產(chǎn)運輸類職業(yè)中,性別和戶籍影響顯著,男性就業(yè)概率更高,農(nóng)業(yè)戶口流出人口的就業(yè)概率也更高。最后給出對策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economic situation in the Northeast region is not optimistic. The economic growth rate is countdown to the whole country. The northeast issue has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life. In the process of economic development, the population and economic growth are interacted. The population is affected by economic growth. In turn, the bad economic environment will also affect the population structure of a region. Under the severe economic situation, the population problem facing the Northeast region is the phenomenon of population outflow, which is not only large in scale but also fast in growth. There is also a growing trend. These people have fled the Northeast to find work and earn a living elsewhere. In order to change the current situation of the outflow, it is necessary to study the factors that affect these people's going out to work and to formulate relevant policies accordingly. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in 2015, this paper selects the population outflow from the three provinces of Northeast China. Firstly, through descriptive analysis, from the gender and age structure, the status of household registration. In terms of population attributes, such as education level, mobility direction, length of time and reasons for outflow, the general situation of the outflow population is introduced, and the following characteristics are found: the high sex ratio, the young labor force, and so on. Agricultural household registration and secondary education are dominant, tend to flow to the eastern coastal areas, are engaged in working and doing business, the general flow time is 2-5 years, the labor intensity of these outflow population is large, different household registration and education level directly affect the income level. The eastern region has the highest income level. This paper analyzes the employment characteristics of the outflow population, selects the employment status, the main occupation, the employment status, the unit nature, the weekly working hours, the monthly income and expenditure, and so on. The results show that the employment tendency of the outflow population is higher than that of the female, and there is no significant difference in the level of education. In terms of employment status, employees are the most important form of employment, followed by self-employed workers. The proportion of the commercial service industry is the highest; the proportion of the unit is the highest for the industrial and commercial individuals and the private collective; and the consumer service industry is the most subordinate sector for the working population. In terms of the factors affecting the employment of the outflow population, the Logistic analysis method is used to select demographic characteristics, socio-economic characteristics and mobility characteristics as independent variables. The results show that the employment tendency of the male outflow population is higher than that of the female, the education level has a significant influence on the employment, the employment probability increases by 18.5% for each higher education level, and it is easier to obtain employment in the marriage state. Agricultural household registration outflow population employment probability is high, but tend to engage in the work with high labor intensity; age has a negative impact, each increase in the probability of employment will be reduced by 43.9 percent; in terms of career choice, All the variables other than marital status have significant effects, and these factors are reflected in different occupational types. The employment probability is positively correlated with the level of education in the managerial and office categories, professional and technical occupations, and there is a positive correlation between the employment probability and the level of education. There is a negative correlation with age. Gender and household registration have significant influence on professional technology and production and transportation occupation. The employment probability of male is higher, and the employment probability of agricultural household outflow is higher. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are given.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F249.27

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