本文關(guān)鍵詞： PLUS 內(nèi)飾項目管理 分階段決策 實物期權(quán)模型 靈活管理 價值評估　出處：《東華大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著國內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟及汽車消費增長的放緩,如何在不確定性增加的市場環(huán)境下優(yōu)化投資決策、確認競爭策略,已越來越受到汽車零部件企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略層關(guān)注。目前國內(nèi)的財務(wù)可行性評估仍是基于穩(wěn)定現(xiàn)金流預期下的折現(xiàn)計算廣泛開展,愈發(fā)偏離于實際業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)。相較之下,在波動市場環(huán)境下,實物期權(quán)法視靈活管理為有價行為,且隨著各時段市場信息引入,可將其量化于項目價值增益中,以支持到投資決策。本文通過文獻閱覽,解讀了傳統(tǒng)現(xiàn)金折現(xiàn)價值理論缺陷,以及實物期權(quán)理論概念、核心思想、基本特性及分類;通過實物期權(quán)理論與傳統(tǒng)方法的對比,歸納了實物期權(quán)價值的影響因素、研究方法衍化及其實證發(fā)展近況。本文同時引入了汽車內(nèi)飾A公司項目開發(fā)流程,在宏觀汽車市場調(diào)研的背景下,詳述了A公司X、Y汽車內(nèi)飾項目的開發(fā)現(xiàn)狀及問題;基于A公司現(xiàn)有成本模型和內(nèi)飾項目開發(fā)路徑,分別闡述了傳統(tǒng)現(xiàn)金折現(xiàn)視角下的項目價值模型,并完成了相應實物期權(quán)視角下的分階段價值模型構(gòu)建。在通過X內(nèi)飾項目應用并檢驗內(nèi)飾開發(fā)分階段實物期權(quán)模型的過程中,基于對傳統(tǒng)現(xiàn)金折現(xiàn)以及分階段實物期權(quán)視角下項目價值的定量分析,本文又集合GESKE模型下的敏感性分析,對影響到項目(期權(quán))總價值的各類要素進行了整理和決策優(yōu)先級排序;同時利用傳統(tǒng)現(xiàn)金折現(xiàn)模型與分階段實物期權(quán)模型下的項目估值差異,闡明了靈活的投資管理為企業(yè)帶來的量化價值及決策影響。通過研究內(nèi)飾項目開發(fā)路徑上的內(nèi)在投資機制,本文顯現(xiàn)出項目各階段影響項目期權(quán)總價值的主要因素及其對決策者的影響規(guī)律及程度,從而在汽車內(nèi)飾件領(lǐng)域完成了一次實物期權(quán)理論的拓展深化。展望未來,除了完善變量分析和計算,將進一步致力于探究實物期權(quán)復合價值及復雜博弈市場下多因素變化的投資決策方式,并結(jié)合A公司作為B2B內(nèi)飾零部件企業(yè)的運營特點,深挖柔性資產(chǎn)投資及模塊化產(chǎn)品設(shè)計的項目組合可能為企業(yè)帶來的期權(quán)總價值。
[Abstract]:With the slowdown of domestic macroeconomic and automobile consumption growth, how to optimize investment decision and confirm competitive strategy in the uncertain market environment, At present, the domestic financial feasibility assessment is still widely carried out based on the expectation of stable cash flow, which deviates from the actual business performance more and more. In the fluctuating market environment, the real option method regards flexible management as a valuable behavior, and with the introduction of market information in each period, it can be quantified in the project value gain to support the investment decision. This paper interprets the defects of the traditional cash discounted value theory, as well as the concept, the core idea, the basic characteristics and the classification of the real option theory, and sums up the influencing factors of the real option value through the comparison between the real option theory and the traditional method. At the same time, this paper introduces the project development process of automobile interior decoration company A, under the background of the macroscopic automobile market research, details the current situation and problems of the development of the vehicle interior decoration project of company A; Based on the existing cost model and interior project development path of company A, this paper expounds the project value model under the traditional cash discount perspective, respectively. And completed the corresponding real options perspective of the phased value model construction. Through the X interior project application and test the process of development of the real options model, Based on the quantitative analysis of the project value from the perspective of traditional cash discounted and phased real options, this paper sets together the sensitivity analysis under the GESKE model. All kinds of factors affecting the total value of the project (option) are sorted out and the decision priorities are arranged. At the same time, the difference of the project valuation under the traditional cash discount model and the phased real option model is used. This paper expounds the quantitative value and decision-making influence of flexible investment management on enterprises. By studying the internal investment mechanism in the development path of interior decoration project, This paper shows the main factors that affect the total value of project options in each stage of the project and the law and extent of their influence on the decision makers, thus completing the expansion and deepening of the real option theory in the field of automotive interior accessories, and looking forward to the future. In addition to improving variable analysis and calculation, we will make further efforts to explore the investment decision-making mode of multi-factor change in real option compound value and complex game market, and combine the operating characteristics of A company as B2B interior parts enterprise. Deep-digging flexible assets investment and modular product design portfolio may bring the total value of options for the enterprise.
【學位授予單位】：東華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F224;F724.5;F426.471

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