發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-30 23:08

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 商品住宅價(jià)格 影響因素 BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò) 預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：商品住宅市場(chǎng)是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的重要構(gòu)成部分,商品住宅價(jià)格與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展關(guān)系密切。無(wú)論是對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、居民生活水平提高,還是維護(hù)社會(huì)和諧穩(wěn)定,商品住宅價(jià)格的變化及其發(fā)展趨勢(shì)都處于十分重要的地位。1998年住房分配制度改革后,太原市商品住宅市場(chǎng)得到了迅速發(fā)展,商品住宅價(jià)格也出現(xiàn)了持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭,其增長(zhǎng)幅度已超過(guò)居民收入的增長(zhǎng)幅度,商品住宅價(jià)格也由此被社會(huì)所廣泛關(guān)注。因此,分析太原市商品住宅價(jià)格的影響因素并預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)房?jī)r(jià)的變化趨勢(shì),可以為太原市政府宏觀調(diào)控、開發(fā)商投資決策及百姓消費(fèi)提供一些參考依據(jù),同時(shí)可通過(guò)采取相應(yīng)措施繼續(xù)穩(wěn)定商品住宅價(jià)格,促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展。本文依據(jù)供求價(jià)格理論,以BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)為研究工具,以太原市商品住宅價(jià)格為研究對(duì)象,對(duì)其影響因素及未來(lái)走勢(shì)進(jìn)行研究。首先,簡(jiǎn)要介紹了太原商品住宅市場(chǎng)供需及價(jià)格狀況。其次,從定性及定量角度對(duì)太原商品住宅價(jià)格的影響因素展開分析。定性方面,分別從供給性因素、需求性因素以及對(duì)住宅供給、需求構(gòu)成影響的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素三個(gè)角度進(jìn)行分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,選取了10個(gè)指標(biāo)作為影響因子,通過(guò)因子相關(guān)性分析得出:GDP、總戶數(shù)、住宅房屋施工面積、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入及房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額是影響太原市商品住宅價(jià)格的主要因素。再次,以神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論為依據(jù),建立了太原市商品住宅價(jià)格的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)模型,對(duì)未來(lái)3年商品住宅價(jià)格進(jìn)行仿真與預(yù)測(cè)。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示,太原市2017、2018、2019年商品住宅均價(jià)分別為8043.27元/平方米、8458.47元/平方米、8767.83元/平方米。由此可以得出,未來(lái)幾年,太原市商品住宅價(jià)格會(huì)繼續(xù)呈現(xiàn)上漲趨勢(shì),但是上漲幅度將趨于放緩且相對(duì)平穩(wěn)。最后,針對(duì)太原市商品住宅價(jià)格的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),從政府、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)及其他市場(chǎng)要素三個(gè)角度,對(duì)穩(wěn)定太原市商品住宅價(jià)格提出建議,如:政府應(yīng)當(dāng)正確發(fā)揮宏觀調(diào)控作用;開發(fā)商應(yīng)控制開發(fā)規(guī)模、積極降低開發(fā)成本;消費(fèi)者應(yīng)保持理性,輿論媒體發(fā)揮正確的輿論導(dǎo)向作用等。
[Abstract]:Commercial housing market is an important part of the real estate market, commodity housing prices and economic and social development is closely related to regional economic development, the improvement of living standards, or to maintain social harmony and stability. In 1998, after the reform of housing distribution system, the commodity housing market in Taiyuan has developed rapidly. Commodity housing prices have also appeared the momentum of sustained growth, its growth rate has exceeded the growth rate of residents' income, commodity housing prices have also been widely concerned by the society. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of commodity housing price in Taiyuan and predicts the change trend of house price in the future, which can provide some reference basis for the macro-control of Taiyuan municipal government, the investment decision of developers and the consumption of common people. At the same time, we can continue to stabilize the commodity housing prices and promote the healthy development of the real estate market by taking corresponding measures. This paper takes BP neural network as the research tool according to the supply and demand price theory. Taking the commodity housing price of Taiyuan as the research object, this paper studies the influencing factors and the future trend. Firstly, it briefly introduces the supply and demand of Taiyuan commodity housing market and the price situation. Secondly. From the perspective of qualitative and quantitative analysis of Taiyuan commodity housing price impact factors. Qualitative aspects, respectively from the supply factor, demand factor and housing supply. On the basis of this, 10 indicators are selected as the influencing factors, and the total number of households is obtained by the correlation analysis of the factors. Housing construction area, per capita disposable income of urban residents and real estate investment are the main factors affecting the commodity housing prices in Taiyuan. Thirdly, the neural network theory is the basis. The BP neural network forecasting model of the commodity housing price in Taiyuan is established, and the simulation and forecast of the commodity housing price in the next three years are carried out. The forecast result shows that the Taiyuan city 20172018. In 2019, the average price of commercial residences was 8043.27 yuan / square meter respectively 8458.47 yuan / square meter or 8767.83 yuan / square meter. Taiyuan commodity housing prices will continue to show an upward trend, but the rise will tend to slow down and relatively stable. Finally, in view of the development trend of commodity housing prices in Taiyuan, from the government. From three aspects of real estate development enterprises and other market elements, this paper puts forward some suggestions for stabilizing the commodity housing prices in Taiyuan, such as: the government should give full play to the role of macro-control; Developers should control the scale of development and actively reduce the cost of development; Consumers should be rational and the media of public opinion should play the right role in guiding public opinion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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