本文關(guān)鍵詞： PPP 高速公路 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) 粗糙集 支持向量機(jī)　出處：《河北工程大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：高速公路作為交通運(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施重要組成部分,具有廣闊的發(fā)展前景。但投資額大、持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)等制約著高速公路項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展。而公私合營(yíng)模式(Public-Private Partnership,PPP)的引入,有效利用社會(huì)資本,緩解政府財(cái)政壓力,降低管理成本,公私合作提供了高質(zhì)量的服務(wù)。然而我國(guó)還未形成豐富的PPP模式高速公路實(shí)施經(jīng)驗(yàn),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系等不盡完善,高速公路項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理就顯得格外重要。因此研究PPP模式下高速公路項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)保證項(xiàng)目順利實(shí)施具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先闡述國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀、PPP模式及投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)理論概述,對(duì)PPP模式應(yīng)用于高速公路項(xiàng)目的適用性進(jìn)行分析,梳理PPP模式下高速公路項(xiàng)目的運(yùn)作流程。其次,根據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系設(shè)計(jì)的原則,結(jié)合PPP模式高速公路項(xiàng)目?jī)?nèi)外部環(huán)境的特點(diǎn),歸納總結(jié)PPP模式高速公路項(xiàng)目的主要影響因素,并以此為依據(jù)建立了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。再次,介紹粗糙集、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)習(xí)理論和支持向量機(jī)的相關(guān)理論,通過(guò)粗糙集對(duì)指標(biāo)體系進(jìn)行約簡(jiǎn),剔除冗余信息,再用支持向量機(jī)進(jìn)行機(jī)器訓(xùn)練,從而構(gòu)建基于粗糙集和支持向量機(jī)的PPP模式下高速公路項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型。最后,結(jié)合XY高速公路項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,證實(shí)該模型具有一定的實(shí)用性和應(yīng)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:As an important part of transportation infrastructure, expressway has a broad prospect of development, but the investment is large. The long duration restricts the development of highway projects, and the introduction of Public-Private Partnership (PPP). Effective use of social capital to alleviate government financial pressure, reduce management costs, public-private partnerships to provide high-quality services. However, China has not yet formed a rich PPP model of expressway implementation experience. The risk evaluation system is not perfect. The risk management of expressway project investment is particularly important. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the investment risk of expressway project under the PPP mode to ensure the smooth implementation of the project. Firstly, this paper describes the current research situation at home and abroad. PPP model and investment risk related theory overview, the applicability of PPP model applied in expressway project analysis, combing the operation process of expressway project under PPP mode. Secondly. According to the principles of evaluation index system design, combined with the characteristics of the internal and external environment of the PPP mode expressway project, the main influencing factors of the PPP mode expressway project are summarized. Based on this, the evaluation index system is established. Thirdly, rough set, statistical learning theory and support vector machine theory are introduced. The index system is reduced by rough set, and redundant information is eliminated. Then the support vector machine is used to train the machine to construct the risk evaluation model of expressway project investment based on rough set and support vector machine (SVM). Finally. Combined with the XY Expressway project, it is proved that the model has some practicability and application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F283

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