本文關(guān)鍵詞：制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供給與需求研究　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：當(dāng)前中國(guó)制造業(yè)在轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的過(guò)程中出現(xiàn)了總產(chǎn)值增長(zhǎng)率波動(dòng)較大,甚至嚴(yán)重下滑的趨勢(shì)。農(nóng)民工作為制造業(yè)工人力量的中堅(jiān)群體,一方面“民工荒”的問(wèn)題年年層出不窮,而另一方面農(nóng)民工群體數(shù)量龐大,還存在相當(dāng)多的一部分農(nóng)村潛在轉(zhuǎn)移勞動(dòng)力,農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供給是否達(dá)到“劉易斯拐點(diǎn)”存在爭(zhēng)議。因此,深入研究中國(guó)制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供給與需求,探索通過(guò)優(yōu)化農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供給,使其與制造業(yè)實(shí)際需求相匹配具有較強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。針對(duì)上述問(wèn)題,本文著眼于當(dāng)前制造業(yè)普遍存在的“民工荒”問(wèn)題,深入分析了其形成的原因。文章從制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工的供給與需求著手,運(yùn)用定性與定量相結(jié)合的研究方法,分別從需求端和供給端分析了農(nóng)民工的數(shù)量與結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題。首先,利用定性分析探究了制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供需的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題。文章分析了中國(guó)制造業(yè)發(fā)展并將制造業(yè)分為勞動(dòng)密集型制造業(yè)和資本密集型制造業(yè)進(jìn)行對(duì)比。同時(shí)對(duì)農(nóng)民工群體自身特征,包括年齡、性別、文化程度以及農(nóng)民工群體輸出地特征、整體規(guī)模進(jìn)行了深入分析。其次,利用實(shí)證分析探究了制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供需的數(shù)量問(wèn)題。本文通過(guò)主成分分析法,針對(duì)制造業(yè)發(fā)展與對(duì)工人的需求進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究;通過(guò)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法以及比較勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率法對(duì)我國(guó)現(xiàn)有潛在農(nóng)村剩余可轉(zhuǎn)移勞動(dòng)力進(jìn)行了估計(jì)。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,當(dāng)前制造業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力需求在逐步減少,而農(nóng)村卻存在大量的可轉(zhuǎn)移勞動(dòng)力,即制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力仍處于供大于求的狀態(tài),并沒(méi)有達(dá)到“劉易斯拐點(diǎn)”。但是,無(wú)論是制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力的需求端還是供給端,都相應(yīng)存在嚴(yán)重的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題,從而導(dǎo)致了在數(shù)量上供大于求的現(xiàn)狀下卻仍存在“民工荒”這一矛盾性問(wèn)題。其中,需求端的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題包括當(dāng)前農(nóng)民工社會(huì)保障不足、工資拖欠、同工不同酬等;供給端的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題包括農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力區(qū)域轉(zhuǎn)移不平衡、受教育程度低(“技工荒”)等。由此本文得出以下結(jié)論:目前制造業(yè)存在層出不窮的“民工荒”問(wèn)題,并不是勞動(dòng)力供給到了“劉易斯拐點(diǎn)”,也并不是“人口紅利”消失,其實(shí)質(zhì)主要是制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供需失衡下的“技工荒”。結(jié)構(gòu)性失業(yè)成為了制造業(yè)農(nóng)民工勞動(dòng)力供給與需求的主要矛盾。農(nóng)民工群體仍然處于勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)分割中的次要?jiǎng)趧?dòng)力市場(chǎng)。
[Abstract]:The current China manufacturing output growth rate fluctuations in the process of transformation and upgrading, and even serious decline. As the backbone of migrant workers group manufacturing workers in power, a "labor shortage" every year and on the other hand, emerge in an endless stream, the number of migrant workers in large groups, there is a part of the rural areas the potential transfer of labor, whether the labor supply of migrant workers reached the "Lewis turning point" controversial. Therefore, in-depth study of China manufacturing labor supply and demand of migrant workers, migrant workers labor force supply exploration through the optimization, the actual demand of the manufacturing industry, has a strong practical significance. In view of the above questions, this article focuses on the current manufacturing industry exists the "labor shortage" problem, in-depth analysis of the reasons for its formation. From the supply and demand of manufacturing migrant workers to use Both qualitative and quantitative methods, respectively, from the demand side and the supply side analysis of the number of migrant workers and structural problems. Firstly, explores the structural problems of manufacturing migrant workers labor supply and demand by means of qualitative analysis. This paper analyzes the development of China manufacturing industry and manufacturing industry into labor-intensive manufacturing and capital intensive manufacturing industry were compared. At the same time, migrant workers groups have their own characteristics, including age, gender, culture degree and output of migrant workers, the overall size is analyzed. Secondly, the number of problems by empirical analysis of manufacturing migrant workers labor supply and demand. This paper through principal component analysis, aiming at the development of manufacturing industry and the demand for workers the empirical research; by the production function method and comparative labor productivity of China's rural surplus labor transfer the existing potential of Estimated. The empirical results show that the manufacturing of migrant workers labor demand gradually reduced, but there is a lot of the rural labor transfer, namely manufacturing migrant workers labor is still in a state of oversupply, and has reached the "Lewis turning point". However, whether it is manufacturing migrant workers labor demand side and the supply side. There are some serious structural problems, resulting in oversupply of the status of the number but there are still "the problem of shortage of migrant workers" this contradiction. Among them, the structural problems of the demand side including the current shortage of migrant workers social security arrears of wages, unequal pay and other structural problems; the supply side including rural areas labor transfer is not balanced, low level of Education ("mechanic shortage"). This paper draws the following conclusions: the current manufacturing "workers shortage" emerge in an endless stream, and Not the labor supply to the "Lewis turning point", and not "demographic dividend" disappeared, its essence mainly manufacturing migrant workers labor supply and demand imbalance under the "mechanic shortage". The structural unemployment has become a major contradiction between the supply and demand of labor force in the manufacturing industry of migrant workers. A group of migrant workers still in the secondary labor market segmentation in the labor market.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F424;F323.6;F249.2

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