本文關(guān)鍵詞：某地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目并購風(fēng)險管理研究　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目并購 風(fēng)險管理 層次分析法 模糊綜合評價法

【摘要】：近幾年,由于房地產(chǎn)價格的持續(xù)上漲,國家加大了房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的力度,調(diào)控手段從收緊地根、銀根等傳統(tǒng)手段,最近又通過加大對購房者購房資格審查、提高二套房首付比例以及利率調(diào)節(jié)方面等,提高業(yè)主購房的門檻。房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)也逐漸由利潤豐厚的黃金時代轉(zhuǎn)向利潤空間被壓縮的白銀時代。在土地市場,開發(fā)企業(yè)通過招拍掛取得土地,動輒就是幾十億,極大的提高了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的進(jìn)入門檻。日益增長的土地需求與不斷提高的行業(yè)進(jìn)入門檻,使得開發(fā)企業(yè)不得不嘗試更多的土地獲取的方式,而房地產(chǎn)并購必將成為地產(chǎn)企業(yè)土地儲備、開辟新的領(lǐng)域的重要手段。房地產(chǎn)并購過程中的風(fēng)險,使得房地產(chǎn)并購具有發(fā)生頻率高、并購資金高,并購成功率低的特點(diǎn)。如何在并購過程中對風(fēng)險進(jìn)行有效的管理,成為房地產(chǎn)并購中最重要的一項(xiàng)工作。本文通過對并購背景情況的闡述,分析了房地產(chǎn)并購風(fēng)險研究的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。通過分析國內(nèi)外風(fēng)險管理研究的現(xiàn)狀,提出了本文研究的主要內(nèi)容以及研究遵循的技術(shù)路線。相關(guān)理論綜述主要對房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)知識進(jìn)行介紹,重點(diǎn)對風(fēng)險管理和并購理論進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的闡述。本文站在并購方的角度,通過對某地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目并購案例進(jìn)行風(fēng)險管理研究。首先對某地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目并購背景進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的闡述。接著主要介紹如何采用統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)法、德爾菲法對某房地產(chǎn)并購過程中的風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行識別,并根據(jù)專家反饋初步判斷該項(xiàng)目并購面臨六大主要的風(fēng)險:政策風(fēng)險、政府溝通風(fēng)險、市場風(fēng)險、整合風(fēng)險、財務(wù)風(fēng)險、法律風(fēng)險。隨后根據(jù)識別的風(fēng)險因素建立了并購風(fēng)險評價模型,采用層次分析法對地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目并購的風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了定性與定量的分析,確定了并購過程中每一種風(fēng)險因素對并購目標(biāo)的影響權(quán)重。采用模糊綜合評價法對風(fēng)險子準(zhǔn)則層的風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行評判,就該類風(fēng)險水平進(jìn)行模糊綜合評價,根據(jù)"最大隸屬度"原則,形成項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險因素的判斷矩陣,得出本項(xiàng)目并購風(fēng)險隸屬于"風(fēng)險較低"級別,可以進(jìn)行收購的結(jié)論。最后針對不同風(fēng)險因素的評價,通過風(fēng)險回避、減少、轉(zhuǎn)移或者自留的方法進(jìn)行并購風(fēng)險應(yīng)對,達(dá)到對地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目并購風(fēng)險控制的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate prices continue to rise, the state has increased the real estate regulation, regulation and control from tightening to root, the money supply and other traditional means, most recently through the increase of property buyers purchase qualification, improve the two suites down payment and interest rate regulation, improve the threshold of the purchase of real estate owners. Developed gradually from the golden age to the silver age lucrative profit margins are compressed. In the land market, the development of enterprises linked to access to land through the auction, is frequently billions, which greatly improves the real estate enterprises to enter the threshold. The growing demand for land and increase the threshold to enter the industry, making the development of enterprises have to try more land acquisition, real estate mergers and acquisitions will become a real estate enterprise land reserve, an important means to open up new areas. The risk of the real estate in the process of mergers and acquisitions, The real estate acquisition with a high frequency and high success rate of mergers and acquisition of funds, low characteristics. How to effectively manage the risk in the process of mergers and acquisitions, has become the most important work in the real estate acquisition. Based on the background of mergers and acquisitions, analyzes the practical significance of research on the risk of real estate acquisition. By analyzing the current situation of risk management at home and abroad, put forward the technical route to follow the main contents of this paper and the related theory research. Mainly on real estate related knowledge are introduced in detail, focus on risk management and MampA theory. This paper stands in the angle of the acquirer, based on a real estate project merger case research on risk management. Firstly, a real estate project acquisitions background in detail. Then mainly introduces how to use the statistical data of a real estate law, Delphy Fa The risk factors of production in the process of acquisition and recognition, according to expert feedback preliminary judgment of the M & A projects facing six major risks: policy risk, government communication risk, market risk, integration risk, financial risk, legal risk. Then the merger risk evaluation model is established according to the identification of risk factors, the qualitative and quantitative analysis the risk factors for acquisition of real estate projects by AHP, determine the weights of the acquisition process of each kind of risk factors on target. Evaluation by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the risk sub rule layer risk factors, the risk level of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, based on the maximum membership principle, form the judgment matrix for project risk factors, it is concluded that the project risk of merger and acquisition to belong to "low risk" level, can be acquired. Finally, according to the different risk conclusion Evaluation of factors, by reducing the risk avoidance, transfer or retention of the method, merger risk response, to mergers and acquisitions to control the risk of real estate projects.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.233.4;F271;F272.3

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