發(fā)布時間：2019-01-25 21:08

【摘要】：中日韓三國是東亞典型的人口老齡化國家,日本老齡化程度最高,韓國老齡化速度最快,中國老齡化人口規(guī)模最大,人口老齡化對三國人力資本投資產(chǎn)生了重要影響。文章利用個體固定效應(yīng)模型,對中日韓三國1971—2013年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行研究,分析人口老齡化與人力資本投資的關(guān)系以及各國人口老齡化對人力資本投資的影響程度,發(fā)現(xiàn)三國的擬合圖形呈現(xiàn)"倒U型",即人口老齡化對人力資本投資影響先正后負(fù),轉(zhuǎn)折的臨界點在10%左右。當(dāng)跨過臨界點后,隨著老齡化水平的不斷加深,人力資本投資減少的速度將加快,當(dāng)老齡化水平達(dá)到30%左右時,老齡化水平每提高1%,人力資本投資水平就會減少1%。同時,由于三國在公共教育支出規(guī)模、支出結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)域分布等個體特征的差異,中國、韓國和日本分別處于倒U型的上升階段、平穩(wěn)階段及下降階段。日韓兩國人口老齡化對公共教育支出發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)近似"倒U型"的趨勢驗證了公共資源存在代際競爭的結(jié)論。為了緩解老齡化對公共支出的擠出效應(yīng),兩國都采取了很多措施,多年來形成了完善的政策制度體系。兩國應(yīng)對人口老齡化的經(jīng)驗豐富,但也存在許多教訓(xùn)。日韓兩國老齡化對人力資本投資影響態(tài)勢預(yù)示著中國未來可能的發(fā)展趨勢。中國應(yīng)借鑒日韓兩國經(jīng)驗,在控制老齡化快速發(fā)展的同時,構(gòu)建完善的老年人法律保護(hù)體系,維護(hù)老年人權(quán)益,協(xié)調(diào)公共資源分配,改善教育投入結(jié)構(gòu)。加大人力資本投資,應(yīng)對人口老齡化引發(fā)的人力資本投資趨向的可能改變,實現(xiàn)社會經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:China, Japan and Korea are typical aging countries in East Asia. Japan has the highest aging degree, Korea has the fastest aging speed, and China has the largest aging population. Population aging has an important impact on the human capital investment of the three countries. Using the individual fixed effect model, this paper studies the panel data of China, Japan and South Korea from 1971-2013, and analyzes the relationship between population aging and human capital investment and the influence of aging population on human capital investment. It is found that the fitting pattern of the three countries is "inverted U-shaped", that is, the effect of population aging on human capital investment is positive first and then negative, and the critical point of turning point is about 10%. After crossing the critical point, with the deepening of the aging level, the speed of human capital investment decrease will be accelerated. When the aging level reaches 30%, the level of human capital investment will be reduced by 1% for each increase of the aging level. At the same time, due to the differences of public education expenditure scale, expenditure structure, regional distribution and other individual characteristics, China, Korea and Japan are in the inverted U-type rising stage, steady stage and declining stage respectively. The trend of population aging in Japan and South Korea on the development of public education expenditure is similar to "inverted U shape", which verifies the conclusion that there is intergenerational competition in public resources. In order to alleviate the crowding out effect of aging on public expenditure, both countries have taken a lot of measures and formed a perfect policy system for many years. The two countries have plenty of experience in coping with ageing populations, but there are also many lessons to be learned. The influence of aging in Japan and South Korea on human capital investment indicates the possible development trend of China in the future. China should draw lessons from the experiences of Japan and South Korea, while controlling the rapid development of aging, build a perfect legal protection system for the elderly, safeguard the rights and interests of the elderly, coordinate the allocation of public resources, and improve the structure of educational input. To increase the investment of human capital, to deal with the possible change of the trend of human capital investment caused by the aging of population, and to realize the sustainable development of social economy.
【作者單位】： 山東大學(xué)(威海)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“老齡化條件下家庭人力資本投資的代際合作與競爭關(guān)系研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:71573158) 教育部人文社科規(guī)劃課題“中日韓人口老齡化與經(jīng)濟增長方式轉(zhuǎn)型比較研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:13YJAZH056)
【分類號】：C924.24;C924.312.6;C924.313

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